The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)     

Vilca  Oscar  Mergili  Martin  Emmer  Adam  Frey  Holger  Huggel  Christian 《Landslides》2021,18(6):2211-2223

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

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Pennsylvanian carbonate platforms adjacent to deltaic systems in an active marine foreland basin (Escalada Fm., Cantabrian Zone,NW Spain)          下载免费PDF全文

Juan Ramón Bahamonde  Oscar Merino‐Tomé  Giovanna Della Porta  Elisa Villa 《Basin Research》2015,27(2):208-229

The Pennsylvanian marine foreland basin of the Cantabrian Zone (NW Spain) is characterized by the unique development of kilometre‐size and hundred‐metre‐thick carbonate platforms adjacent to deltaic systems. During Moscovian time, progradational clastic wedges fed by the orogen comprised proximal alluvial conglomerates and coal‐bearing deltaic sequences to distal shelfal marine deposits associated with carbonate platforms (Escalada Fm.) and distal clay‐rich submarine slopes. A first phase of carbonate platform development (Escalada I, upper Kashirian‐lower Podolskian) reached a thickness of 400 m, nearly 50 km in width and developed a distal high‐relief margin facing a starved basin, nearly 1000‐m deep. Carbonate slope clinoforms dipped up to 30° and consisted of in situ microbial boundstone, pinching out downslope into calciturbidites, argillaceous spiculites and breccias. The second carbonate platform (Escalada II, upper Podolskian‐lower Myachkovian) developed beyond the previous platform margin, following the basinward progradation of siliciclastic deposits. Both carbonate platforms include: (1) a lower part composed of siliciclastic‐carbonate cyclothems characterized by coated‐grain and ooid grainstones; and (2) a carbonate‐dominated upper part, composed of tabular and mound‐shaped wackestone and algal‐microbial boundstone strata alternating at the decametre scale with skeletal and coated‐grain grainstone beds. Carbonate platforms initiated in distal sectors of the foreland marine shelf during transgressions, when terrigenous sediments were stored in the proximal part, and developed further during highstands of 3rd‐order sequences in a high‐subsidence context. During the falling stage and lowstand systems tracts, deltaic systems prograded across the shelf burying the carbonate platforms. Key factors involved in the development of these unique carbonate platforms in an active foreland basin are: (1) the large size of the marine shelf (approaching 200 km in width); (2) the subsidence distribution pattern across the marine shelf, decreasing from proximal shoreline to distal sectors; (3) Pennsylvanian glacio‐eustacy affecting carbonate lithofacies architecture; and (4) the environmental conditions optimal for fostering microbial and algal carbonate factories.  相似文献   

Direct impacts of alternative energy scenarios on water demand in the Middle East and North Africa   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Kerstin Damerau  Oscar P. R. van Vliet  Anthony G. Patt 《Climatic change》2015,130(2):171-183

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Origin of resources and trophic pathways in a large SW Atlantic estuary: An evaluation using stable isotopes     

Florencia Botto  Esteban Gaitán  Hermes Mianzan  Marcelo Acha  Diego Giberto  Agustín Schiariti  Oscar Iribarne 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

The Río de la Plata (34° 36′ S, 55° 58′ W; Argentina and Uruguay) estuary, one of the most important South American estuarine environments, is characterized by weak seasonal freshwater discharge, low tidal amplitude (<1 m), a wide and permanent connection to the sea, and a salt-wedge regime. Using stable isotope analysis, we explored the relative importance of the different sources of primary production in the food web. Our results show that phytoplankton and macrodetritus from terrestrial salt and freshwater marshes both contribute to the food web of the Río de la Plata estuary. On the basis of the sampled species, we identified four trophic levels. The clam Mactra isabelleana, the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa, and the opossum shrimp Neomysis americana are the primary consumers. The rays Atlantoraja castelnaui and Squatina guggenheim and the shark Galeorhinus galeus are the top predators. The Río de la Plata food web shows an important input of nutrients derived from phytoplankton. Rays, sharks, and predatory gastropods reveal an important contribution of C4 plants (likely Spartina spp.). However, production derived from C3 plants is also important for some species. The fishes Brazilian menhaden, Brevoortia aurea; the stripped weakfish Cynoscion guatucupa; and the whitemouth croaker, Micropogonias furnieri, showed differences in their isotopic signatures as juveniles and adults, indicating different food sources, and they were therefore treated as different components of the food web. Our data suggest that detritus from salt and freshwater marshes is reaching the Río de la Plata estuary and can be an important allocthonous source of energy to this environment.  相似文献   

A geologic study of the Juan del Grijalva landslide,the most important mass movement during the last century in Mexico     

Moisés Dávila Serrano  Oscar Jiménez 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):183-197

On November 4th 2007, along the Grijalva River in the state of Chiapas, Mexico, has occurred one of the largest landslides ever known. This landslide, known as Juan del Grijalva, destroyed the town of the same name, killing 20 people, and moved 55 million cubic meters of rock and debris down slope to completely block the Grijalva River. In order to understand the characteristics and factors that triggered the Juan del Grijalva landslide, geologic studies were conducted at the site. The results indicate that the landslide was composed of a lithologic sequence of thin-bedded shales and thin to medium-thick-bedded sandstones. This was faulted into several blocks dipping in the same sense as the mass movement. The main triggering factor was the increment of the pore pressure into the lithologic unit due to water saturation after 5 days of heavy rain before the incident. According to records from the last century, the Juan del Grijalva mass movement represents one of the largest mass movements recorded all over the world. The risk conditions of the area after the landslide lead to the rapid construction of an artificial channel to drain the accumulating mass of water upstream and therefore prevent a future catastrophic inundation down stream.  相似文献   

Power-law velocity profile in turbulent boundary layers: An integral reynolds-number dependent solution     

Oscar Castro-Orgaz  Subhasish Dey 《Acta Geophysica》2011,59(5):993-1012

Geophysical flows of practical interest encompass turbulent boundary layer flows. The velocity profile in turbulent flows is generally described by a log- or a power-law applicable to certain zones of the boundary layer, or by wall-wake law for the entire zone of the boundary layer. In this study, a novel theory is proposed from which the power-law velocity profile is obtained for the turbulent boundary layer flow. The new power-law profile is based on the conservation of mass and the skin friction within the boundary layer. From the proposed theory, analytical expressions for the power-law velocity profile are presented, and their Reynolds-number dependency is highlighted. The velocity profile, skin friction coefficient and boundary layer thickness obtained from the proposed theory are validated by the reliable experimental data for zero-pressure gradient turbulent boundary layers. The expressions for Reynolds shear stress and eddy viscosity distributions across the boundary layer are also obtained and validated by the experimental data.  相似文献   

Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system     

Andrew G. Marshall  Debra Hudson  Matthew C. Wheeler  Harry H. Hendon  Oscar Alves 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(11-12):2129-2141

We assess the ability of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to simulate and predict weekly rainfall associated with the MJO using a 27-year hindcast dataset. After an initial 2-week atmospheric adjustment, the POAMA model is shown to simulate well, both in pattern and in intensity, the weekly-mean rainfall variation associated with the evolution of the MJO over the tropical Indo-Pacific. The simulation is most realistic in December?CFebruary (austral summer) and least realistic in March?CMay (austral autumn). Regionally, the most problematic area is the Maritime Continent, which is a common problem area in other models. Coupled with our previous demonstration of the ability of POAMA to predict the evolution of the large-scale structure of the MJO for up to about 3?weeks, this ability to simulate the regional rainfall evolution associated with the MJO translates to enhanced predictability of rainfall regionally throughout much of the tropical Indo-Pacific when the MJO is present in the initial conditions during October?CMarch. We also demonstrate enhanced prediction skill of rainfall at up to 3?weeks lead time over the north-east Pacific and north Atlantic, which are areas of pronounced teleconnections excited by the MJO-modulation of tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall. Failure to simulate and predict the modulation of rainfall in such places as the Maritime Continent and tropical Australia by the MJO indicates, however, there is still much room for improvement of the prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections.  相似文献   

On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Ni?o     

Li Shi  Harry H. Hendon  Oscar Alves  Matthew C. Wheeler  David Anderson  Guomin Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(1-2):313-324

The importance of initializing atmospheric intra-seasonal (stochastic) variations for prediction of the onset of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o is examined using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. A suite of 9-month forecasts was initialized on the 1st December 1996. Observed ocean initial conditions were used together with five different atmospheric initial conditions that sample a range of possible initial states of intra-seasonal (stochastic) variability, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is considered the primary stochastic variability of relevance to El Ni?o evolution. The atmospheric initial states were generated from a suite of atmosphere-only integrations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST). To the extent that low frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere is forced by slow variations in SST, these atmospheric states should all represent realistic low frequency atmospheric variability that was present in December 1996. However, to the extent that intra-seasonal variability is not constrained by SST, they should capture a range of intra-seasonal states, especially variations in the activity, phase and amplitude of the MJO. For each of these five states, a 20-member ensemble of coupled model forecasts was generated by the addition of small random perturbations to the SST field at the initial time. The ensemble mean from all five sets of forecasts resulted in El Ni?o but three of the sets produced substantially greater warming by months 4?C5 in the NINO3.4 region compared to the other two. The warmer group stemmed from stronger intra-seasonal westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO that propagated eastward into the central Pacific during the first 1?C2?months of the forecast. These were largely absent in the colder group; the weakest of the colder group developed strong easterly wind anomalies, relative to the grand ensemble mean, that propagated into the central Pacific early in the forecast, thereby generating significantly weaker downwelling Kelvin waves in comparison to the warmer group. The strong reduction in downwelling Kelvin waves in the weakest case acted to limit the warming in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a ??Modoki?? type El Ni?o that is more focused in the central Pacific. Our results suggest that the intra-seasonal stochastic component of the atmospheric initial condition has an important and potentially predictable impact on the forecasts of the initial warming and flavour of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o. However, to the extent that atmospheric intra-seasonal variability is not predictable beyond a month or two, these results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength and perhaps the spatial distribution of an El Ni?o can ultimately be predicted. These results do not preclude a predictable role of the MJO and other intra-seasonal stochastic variability at longer lead times if some aspects of the stochastic variability are preconditioned by the evolving state of El Ni?o or other low frequency boundary forcing.  相似文献   

On the period of the periodic orbits of the restricted three body problem     

Oscar Perdomo 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2017,129(1-2):89-104

We will show that the period T of a closed orbit of the planar circular restricted three body problem (viewed on rotating coordinates) depends on the region it encloses. Roughly speaking, we show that, \(2 T=k\pi +\int _\Omega g\) where k is an integer, \(\Omega \) is the region enclosed by the periodic orbit and \(g:{\mathbb {R}}^2\rightarrow {\mathbb {R}}\) is a function that only depends on the constant C known as the Jacobian constant; it does not depend on \(\Omega \). This theorem has a Keplerian flavor in the sense that it relates the period with the space “swept” by the orbit. As an application we prove that there is a neighborhood around \(L_4\) such that every periodic solution contained in this neighborhood must move clockwise. The same result holds true for \(L_5\).  相似文献   

Die äußersten Endmoränen der jüngsten Vereisung Norddeutschlands     

Oscar Tietze 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1916,7(3-4):110-122

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