Magnetic Helicity as a Predictor of the Solar Cycle     

G. Hawkes  M. A. Berger 《Solar physics》2018,293(7):109

It is well known that the polar magnetic field is at its maximum during solar minima, and that the behaviour during this time acts as a strong predictor of the strength of the following solar cycle. This relationship relies on the action of differential rotation (the Omega effect) on the poloidal field, which generates the toroidal flux observed in sunspots and active regions. We measure the helicity flux into both the northern and the southern hemispheres using a model that takes account of the Omega effect, which we apply to data sets covering a total of 60 years. We find that the helicity flux offers a strong prediction of solar activity up to five years in advance of the next solar cycle. We also hazard an early guess as to the strength of Solar Cycle 25, which we believe will be of similar amplitude and strength to Cycle 24.  相似文献   

Meio-epifaunal wood colonization in the vicinity of methane seeps     

Adriana Gracia C.  Lisa A. Levin  Sven Zea 《Marine Ecology》2020,41(1):e12573

In deep-sea environments, plant remains of several origins are found, including branches, twigs, leaves, and wood pieces, among others. As most of the deep-sea bottoms are oligotrophic and nutrient-limited, plant remains provide an oasis of localized organic enrichment and a substrate for colonization. Sunken wood was suggested to play an important evolutionary role in the diversification of chemosynthetic ecosystems, possibly representing stepping stones for the colonization between vent and seep ecosystems. In order to understand colonization processes of the Pacific Costa Rican meio-epifaunal assemblages associated with sunken wood, a field experiment was conducted on Mound 12 (8°55.778′N, 84°18.730′W) at ~1,000 m water depth. Woodblocks were placed in four different habitats (Mussel beds, tube worms, near mussel beds, rubble bottoms), and different local environmental conditions (seepage-active and seepage-inactive sites). Seven experimental Douglas fir woodblocks (each 1,047 cm² in surface area) were deployed from the R/V Atlantis using the manned submersible Alvin in February 2009 and recovered after 10.5 months in January 2010. Sample processing and analyses led to a data set of abundance (total 9,951 individuals) and spatial distribution of nine meio-epifaunal higher taxa/groups. Meio-epifaunal densities on individual woodblocks ranged from 3 to 26 ind.10 cm². Copepods accounted for the highest abundances (75.1%), followed by nauplii larvae (11.7%) and nematodes (9.8%). The maximum number of individuals (26.3 ind.10 cm⁻²) was found in blocks placed in seepage-inactive areas (near active mussel beds) in contrast to 2.9 ind.10 cm⁻² in active areas (within a mussel bed). A hierarchical cluster analysis grouped blocks according to seepage activity and not to habitat, but tests of similarity showed no significant differences in higher taxon composition and abundances, probably owing either to substrate homogeneity or low sample size. Copepods were the most abundant representatives, suggesting that this group is one of the most successful in colonizing in the early stage of succession, in this case while hardwood substrates are not yet decomposed or bored by bivalves.  相似文献   

Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland          下载免费PDF全文

Yong Chen  Jing Duan  Junling An  Huizhi Liu  Ulrich G?rsdorf  Franz H.Berger 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(5):24-29

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.  相似文献   

Deep inside a neoproterozoic intra-oceanic arc: growth,differentiation and exhumation of the Amalaoulaou complex (Gourma,Mali)     

Julien Berger  Renaud Caby  Jean-Paul Liégeois  Jean-Claude C. Mercier  Daniel Demaiffe 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2011,162(4):773-796

We show here that the Amalaoulaou complex, in the Pan-African belt of West Africa (Gourma, Mali), corresponds to the lower and middle sections of a Neoproterozoic intra-oceanic arc. This complex records a 90–130-Ma-long evolution of magmatic inputs and differentiation above a subducting oceanic slab. Early c. 793 Ma-old metagabbros crystallised at lower crustal or uppermost mantle depths (25–30 km) and have geochemical characteristic of high-alumina basalts extracted from a depleted mantle source slightly enriched by slab-derived sedimentary components ((La/Sm)_N < 1; ε_Nd: +5.4–6.2; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr: 0.7027–0.7029). In response to crustal thickening, these mafic rocks were recrystallised into garnet-granulites (850–1,000°C; 10–12 kbar) and subject to local dehydration–melting reactions, forming trondhjemititic leucosomes with garnet–clinopyroxene–rutile residues. Slightly after the granulitic event, the arc root was subject to strong HT shearing during partial exhumation (detachment faults/rifting or thrusting), coeval with the emplacement of spinel- and garnet-pyroxenite dykes crystallised from a high-Mg andesitic parental magma. Quartz and hornblende-gabbros (700–660 Ma) with composition typical of hydrous volcanic rocks from mature arcs ((La/Sm)_N: 0.9–1.8; ε_Nd: +4.6 to +5.2; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr: 0.7028–0.7031) were subsequently emplaced at mid-arc crust levels (~15 km). Trace element and isotopic data indicate that magmas tapped a depleted mantle source significantly more enriched in oceanic sedimentary components (0.2%). Exhumation occurred either in two stages (700–660 and 623 Ma) or in one stage (623 Ma) with a final exhumation of the arc root along cold P-T path (550°C, 6–9 kbar; epidote–amphibolite and greenschist facies conditions) during the main Pan-African collision event (620–580 Ma). The composition of magmas forming the Cryogenian Amalaoulaou arc and the processes leading to intra-arc differentiation are strikingly comparable to those observed in the deep section of exposed Mezosoic oceanic arcs, namely the Kohistan and Talkeetna complex. This evolution of the Amalaoulaou oceanic arc and its accretion towards the West African craton belong to the life and closure of the Pharusian Ocean that eventually led to the formation of the Greater Gondwana supercontinent, a similar story having occurred on the other side of the Sahara with the Mozambique Ocean.  相似文献   

Eutrephoceras subplicatum (Steinmann, 1895) is a junior synonym of Eutrephoceras dorbignyanum (Forbes in Darwin, 1846) (Cephalopoda, Nautiloidea) from the Maastrichtian Quiriquina Formation of Chile     

Sven N. Nielsen  Christian Salazar 《Cretaceous Research》2011,32(6):833-840

Nautilus subplicatusSteinmann, 1895 is a latest Cretaceous species of nautiloid which is common in southern South America (Chile, Argentina) and the Antarctic Peninsula and which is best assigned to the genus EutrephocerasHyatt, 1894. Nautilus dorbignyanusForbes in Darwin, 1846 and Nautilus valenciennii Hupé in Gay, 1854 are here considered to be senior synonyms which later authors have apparently overlooked. The type material of these two taxa is reillustrated. On the basis of this and additional material it is demonstrated that only a single nautiloid species occurs in the Quiriquina Formation of late Maastrichtian age. For this we propose to use N. dorbignyanus as the oldest available name.  相似文献   

Editorial for the special issue: vulnerability to natural hazards—the challenge of integration   总被引：8，自引：6，他引：2  

Sven Fuchs  Christian Kuhlicke  Volker Meyer 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(2):609-619

  相似文献   

3-D assessment of peak-metamorphic conditions by Raman spectroscopy of carbonaceous material: an example from the margin of the Lepontine dome (Swiss Central Alps)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Michael Wiederkehr  Romain Bousquet  Martin A. Ziemann  Alfons Berger  Stefan M. Schmid 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2011,100(5):1029-1063

This study monitors regional changes in the crystallinity of carbonaceous matter (CM) by applying Micro-Raman spectroscopy to a total of 214 metasediment samples (largely so-called Bündnerschiefer) dominantly metamorphosed under blueschist- to amphibolite-facies conditions. They were collected within the northeastern margin of the Lepontine dome and easterly adjacent areas of the Swiss Central Alps. Three-dimensional mapping of isotemperature contours in map and profile views shows that the isotemperature contours associated with the Miocene Barrow-type Lepontine metamorphic event cut across refolded nappe contacts, both along and across strike within the northeastern margin of the Lepontine dome and adjacent areas. Further to the northeast, the isotemperature contours reflect temperatures reached during the Late Eocene subduction-related blueschist-facies event and/or during subsequent near-isothermal decompression; these contours appear folded by younger, large-scale post-nappe-stacking folds. A substantial jump in the recorded maximum temperatures across the tectonic contact between the frontal Adula nappe complex and surrounding metasediments indicates that this contact accommodated differential tectonic movement of the Adula nappe with respect to the enveloping Bündnerschiefer after maximum temperatures were reached within the northern Adula nappe, i.e. after Late Eocene time.  相似文献   

Mapping of erosion rates in marly badlands based on a coupling of anatomical changes in exposed roots with slope maps derived from LiDAR data     

Jérôme Lopez Saez  Christophe Corona  Markus Stoffel  Georges Rovéra  Laurent Astrade  Frédéric Berger 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(9):1162-1171

Black marls form very extensive outcrops in the Alps and constitute some of the most eroded terrains, thus causing major problems of sedimentation in artificial storage systems (e.g. reservoirs) and river systems. In the experimental catchments near Draix (France), soil erosion rates have been measured in the past at the plot scale through a detailed monitoring of surface elevation changes and at the catchment scale through continuous monitoring of sediment yield in traps at basin outlets. More recently, erosion rates have been determined by means of dendrogeomorphic techniques in three monitored catchments of the Draix basin. A total of 48 exposed roots of Scots pine have been sampled and anatomical variations in annual growth rings resulting from denudation analysed. At the plot scale, average medium‐term soil erosion rates derived from exposed roots vary between 1·8 and 13·8 mm yr^?1 (average: 5·9 mm yr^?1) and values are significantly correlated with slope angle. The dendrogeomorphic record of point‐scale soil erosion rates matches very well with soil erosion rates measured in the Draix basins. Based on the point‐scale measurements and dendrogeomorphic results obtained at the point scale, a linear regression model involving slope angle was derived and coupled to high‐resolution slope maps obtained from a LiDAR‐generated digital elevation model so as to generate high‐resolution soil erosion maps. The resulting regression model is statistically significant and average soil erosion rates obtained from the areal erosion map (5·8, 5·2 and 6·2 mm yr^?1 for the Roubine, Moulin and Laval catchments, respectively) prove to be well in concert with average annual erosion rates measured in traps at the outlet of these catchments since 1985 (6·3, 4·1 and 6·4 mm yr^?1). This contribution demonstrates that dendrogeomorphic analyses of roots clearly have significant potential and that they are a powerful tool for the quantification and mapping of soil erosion rates in areas where measurements of past erosion is lacking. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

High resolution regional climate model simulations for Germany: Part II—projected climate changes   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sven Wagner  Peter Berg  Gerd Schädler  Harald Kunstmann 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):415-427

The projected climate change signals of a five-member high resolution ensemble, based on two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCCma3) and two regional climate models (RCMs: CLM and WRF) are analysed in this paper (Part II of a two part paper). In Part I the performance of the models for the control period are presented. The RCMs use a two nest procedure over Europe and Germany with a final spatial resolution of 7 km to downscale the GCM simulations for the present (1971–2000) and future A1B scenario (2021–2050) time periods. The ensemble was extended by earlier simulations with the RCM REMO (driven by ECHAM5, two realisations) at a slightly coarser resolution. The climate change signals are evaluated and tested for significance for mean values and the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, as well as for the intensity distribution of precipitation and the numbers of dry days and dry periods. All GCMs project a significant warming over Europe on seasonal and annual scales and the projected warming of the GCMs is retained in both nests of the RCMs, however, with added small variations. The mean warming over Germany of all ensemble members for the fine nest is in the range of 0.8 and 1.3 K with an average of 1.1 K. For mean annual precipitation the climate change signal varies in the range of ?2 to 9 % over Germany within the ensemble. Changes in the number of wet days are projected in the range of ±4 % on the annual scale for the future time period. For the probability distribution of precipitation intensity, a decrease of lower intensities and an increase of moderate and higher intensities is projected by most ensemble members. For the mean values, the results indicate that the projected temperature change signal is caused mainly by the GCM and its initial condition (realisation), with little impact from the RCM. For precipitation, in addition, the RCM affects the climate change signal significantly.  相似文献   

Footwall mineralization during Late Miocene extension along the West Cycladic Detachment System,Lavrion, Greece     

Alexandra Berger  David A. Schneider  Bernhard Grasemann  Daniel Stockli 《地学学报》2013,25(3):181-191

The West Cycladic Detachment System (WCDS) has been mapped from the western Cycladic islands to Lavrion (mainland Greece), where several top‐to‐SSW low‐angle normal faults at different structural levels are observed. Near the detachment horizon, hydrothermal fluid flow originating from Miocene intrusions lead to high‐temperature carbonate strata‐bound Pb–Ag–Zn ore deposits. Zircon (U–Th)/He cooling ages from the mineralized footwall are 7.1 ± 0.6 to 7.9 ± 0.6 Ma. Carbon‐ and O‐isotope analyses of the carbonate host indicate high water‐to‐rock ratios during brittle deformation‐induced metasomatism, and that this interaction, unrelated to proximity of the intrusions, plays the dominant role in the mineralization. The Late Miocene geology of Lavrion is strikingly similar to Serifos island on the SE termination of the WCDS, both characterized by strong localization of detachment faulting and the interaction of brittle deformation with the injection of fluids related to granitoid intrusions.  相似文献