Modeling the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides using the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model： a case study of the Sabae Area, Japan   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Ru-Hua SONG  Daimaru HIROMU  Abe KAZUTOKI  Kurokawa USIO  Matsuura SUMIO 《国际泥沙研究》2008,23(2):106-118

A number of statistical methods are typically used to effectively predict potential landslide distributions. In this study two multivariate statistical analysis methods were used （weights of evidence and logistic regression） to predict the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides in the Kamikawachi area of Sabae City, Fukui Prefecture, Japan. First, the dependent variable （shallow-seated landslides） was divided into presence and absence, and the independent variables （environmental factors such as slope and altitude） were categorized according to their characteristics. Then, using the weights of evidence （WE） method, the weights of pairs comprising presence （w^＋（i）） or absence （w^-（i））, and the contrast values for each category of independent variable （evidence）, were calculated, Using the method that integrated the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model, score values were calculated for each category of independent variable. Based on these contrast values, three models were selected to sum the score values of every gird in the study area. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis （ROC）, model 2 yielded the best fit for predicting the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslide hazards, with 89% correctness and a 54.5% hit ratio when the occurrence probability （OP） of landslides was 70%. The model was tested using data from an area close to the study region, and showed 94% correctness and a hit ratio of 45.7% when the OP of landslides was 70%. Finally, the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides, based on the OP, was mapped using a geographical information system.  相似文献   

The X10 Flare on 29 October 2003: Was It Triggered by Magnetic Reconnection between Counter-Helical Fluxes?     

Yu Liu  Hiroki Kurokawa  Chang Liu  David H. Brooks  Jingping Dun  Takako T. Ishii  Hongqi Zhang 《Solar physics》2007,240(2):253-262

Vector magnetograms taken at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS) and Mees Solar Observatory (MSO) reveal that the super active region (AR) NOAA 10486 was a complex region containing current helicity flux of opposite signs. The main positive sunspots were dominated by negative helicity fields, while positive helicity patches persisted both inside and around the main positive sunspots. Based on a comparison of two days of deduced current helicity density, pronounced changes associated with the occurrence of an X10 flare that peaked at 20:49 UT on 29 October 2003 were noticed. The average current helicity density (negative) of the main sunspots decreased significantly by about 50%. Accordingly, the helicity densities of counter-helical patches (positive) were also found to decay by the same proportion or more. In addition, two hard X-ray (HXR) “footpoints” were observed by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) during the flare in the 50 – 100 keV energy range. The cores of these two HXR footpoints were adjacent to the positions of two patches with positive current helicity that disappeared after the flare. This strongly suggested that the X10 flare on 29 October 2003 resulted from reconnection between magnetic flux tubes having opposite current helicity. Finally, the global decrease of current helicity in AR 10486 by ∼50% can be understood as the helicity launched away by the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X10 flare. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

A Multiple Flare Scenario where the Classic Long-Duration Flare Was Not the Source of a CME     

C. P. Goff  L. van Driel-Gesztelyi  P. Démoulin  J. L. Culhane  S. A. Matthews  L. K. Harra  C. H. Mandrini  K. L. Klein  H. Kurokawa 《Solar physics》2007,240(2):283-299

A series of flares (GOES class M, M and C) and a CME were observed in close succession on 20 January 2004 in NOAA 10540. Radio observations, which took the form of types II, III and N bursts, were associated with these events. We use the combined observations from TRACE, EIT, Hα images from Kwasan, MDI magnetograms and GOES to understand the complex development of this event. Contrary to a standard interpretation, we conclude that the first two impulsive flares are part of the CME launch process while the following long-duration event flare represents simply the recovery phase. Observations show that the flare ribbons not only separate but also shift along the magnetic inversion line so that magnetic reconnection progresses stepwise to neighboring flux tubes. We conclude that “tether cutting” reconnection in the sheared arcade progressively transforms it to a twisted flux tube, which becomes unstable, leading to a CME. We interpret the third flare, a long-duration event, as a combination of the classical two-ribbon flare with the relaxation process following forced reconnection between the expanding CME structure and neighboring magnetic fields. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

地闪回击的微秒级辐射场特征及近地面连接过程分析   总被引：14，自引：6，他引：8  

郄秀书  郭昌明 《高原气象》1998,17(1):44-54

利用１μｓ时间分辨率的慢天线电场变化仪在甘肃中川地区雷暴过程中测量得到的大量地闪辐射波形地地闪回击辐射场特征及回击的慢前沿过程进行分析,发现１８次正地闪和８５次负地闪产在周前沿过程上升时间为１９．２μｓ和９．４μｓ,８４次负地闪继后回击的前沿过程为４．３ μｓ。ＹＹ ＵＤＡ Ｏ ３．１μ;  相似文献   

Fine structure in the inner corona observed at the 1970 eclipse     

T. Tsubaki  H. Kurokawa  M. Kanno 《Solar physics》1971,21(2):305-313

On the slit spectrogram obtained at the 1970 eclipse in Mexico, the intensities of four coronal lines (Nixiii 5116, Fexiv 5303, Fex 6374, and Nixv 6702) and the continuum were measured as a function of distance along the slit. It is found that there exist a lot of fine fluctuations both in the lines and in the continuum intensities superposed on a large scale formation. The correspondence of such fluctuations between the continuum and the lines is good, with the exception of the line 6374 which shows a peculiar fluctuation. It is shown that the intensities of the three lines 5116, 5303, and 6702 seem to be proportional to the square of the continuum intensity while the 6374 line intensity may be proportional to the fourth power or more.  相似文献   

Two distinct morphological types of magnetic shear development and their relation to flares     

H. Kurokawa 《Solar physics》1982,113(1-2):259-265

From a morphological study of the evolution of six active regions, we found two types of processes for the development of magnetic shear configurations between sunspots: (A) collision of two sunspots of opposite magnetic polarities, and (B) successive emergence of twisted magnetic flux ropes. We conclude that the process (B) might be essential for the production of major flares.  相似文献   

The continuum of the extreme limb and the chromosphere at the 1970 eclipse     

H. Kurokawa  K. Nakayama  T. Tsubaki  M. Kanno 《Solar physics》1974,36(1):69-79

The flash spectra of the partial Sun and the chromosphere were obtained at the total solar eclipse on 7 March, 1970. We studied the distributions of the surface brightness of the continuum at six wavelengths in the visual region to compare them with the previous observations and the existing model atmospheres. All of the distributions show a shallow dip and a small hump similar to those of Heintze's observation at the 1954 eclipse. But the hump in our results is of quite a different type from that given by Heintze's revised model. It was found that none of the existing model atmospheres can reproduce this hump. The intensity distribution in the low chromosphere was also examined.  相似文献   

Precise determination of cooling times of post-flare loops from the detailed comparison between Hα and soft X-ray images     

Suguru Kamio  Hiroki Kurokawa  Takako T. Ishii 《Solar physics》2003,215(1):127-146

A detailed study of the evolution and cooling process of post-flare loops is presented for a large X9.2 solar flare of 2 November 1992 by using H images obtained with Domeless Solar Telescope at Hida Observatory and soft X-ray images of Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT). The detailed analysis with a new method allows us to determine more precise values of the cooling times from 10⁷ K to 10⁴ K plasma in the post-flare loops than in previous works. The subtraction of sequential images shows that soft X-ray dimming regions are well correlated to the H brightening loop structure. The cooling times between 10⁷ K and 10⁴ K are defined as the time difference between the start of soft X-ray intensity decrease and the end of H intensity increase at a selected point, where the causal relation between H brightening and soft X-ray dimming loops is confirmed. The obtained cooling times change with time; about 10 min at the initial stage and about 40 min at the later stage. The combined conductive and radiative cooling times are also calculated by using the temperature and density obtained from SXT data. Calculated cooling times are close to observed cooling times at the beginning of the flare and longer in the later stage.  相似文献   

A filament eruption and accompanying coronal field changes on November 5, 1992     

McAllister  A. H.  Kurokawa  H.  Shibata  K.  Nitta  N. 《Solar physics》1996,169(1):123-149

An H filament eruption on November 5, 1992 was fully observed in H with the Hida Flare Monitoring Telescope, while Yohkoh's Soft X-ray Telescope observed the pre- and post-eruption evolution of the coronal magnetic fields. From the H data, including the red and blue wings, we have reconstructed the rise of the filament, including trajectory, velocity, and acceleration. In combination with the Yohkoh data this reconstruction suggests that the filament had several interactions with other coronal magnetic fields during the eruption. The Yohkoh data also shows pre-eruption changes in the coronal fields and several post-eruption bright coronal structures. The pre-eruption changes are interpreted as a partial opening of the corona, indicating that it is not necessary to have a complete opening of the corona in order for a filament to erupt and we discuss the several possible contributions from emerging flux. The post-event bright coronal structures are compared with theory and with a cleaner filament eruption event on July 31, 1992. These comparisons suggest that, although there are many similarities, it is hard to completely reconcile the observations with the existing theory.  相似文献   

Mass motions in active region filaments     

Hanaoka  Yoichiro  Kurokawa  Hiroki 《Solar physics》1989,124(2):227-250

Mass motions in active region filaments of regions NOAA 4171 and McMath 16208 are analyzed. Both regions were continuously observed with the Zeiss Lyot filter for about a week at the Hida Observatory. As for NOAA 4171, Dopplergrams are made from the H filtergrams of 7 wavelengths for the qualitative study of the velocity fields in the filament, and Beckers' cloud model analysis is employed for a quantitative study of them. Dopplergrams of McMath 16208 are also constructed for qualitative analyses to determine whether the results derived from the analysis of NOAA 4171 are applicable to this region.The following results are obtained. Matter in the long-lived filaments, which lie along the magnetic neutral lines, flows generally horizontally and along the axes of the filaments. Since the matter in the filaments is considered to flow along the magnetic field, the magnetic fields in the filaments must be highly sheared. The same patterns of mass flow are found in the same filaments on successive days; some of them last for at least several days. Some filaments show long-lived symmetrical downflows to both of their ends in which the velocity is about 30 km s^-1. Such flows are seen both in NOAA 4171 and McMath 16208. We show a morphological model of such flows.Contributions from the Kwasan and Hida Observatory, Kyoto University, No. 295.  相似文献