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Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions. 相似文献
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Introduction According to many published papers, seismicity in time-space domain shows some characteristics, such as doughnut epicenter distribution (Mogi, 1969) or quiescence of seismic activity before large earthquakes (WANG, et al, 2002), and aftershock decay (Ogata, 1998). In recent years, more and more seismologists (Lynnr, Steven, 1990) have found that many strong earthquakes are preceded by enhancing regional seismicity and accelerating strain energy release (ZHANG, et al, 2001). T… 相似文献
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Based on a cellular automata model, which obeys rules produced by a spring-damper-slider model of fault network, a synthetic
earthquake catalog of deterministic chaos can be produced. It is a challenge to inverse the model parameters and predict the
synthetic earthquakes from the synthetic catalog. We apply an improved statistical model of coupled stress release to the
synthetic catalog, it does successfully inverse the stress evolution of the system, but effectively prediction of the earthquakes
from the stresses remains a problem.
This research is partially supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation and Asian 2000 Foundation of New
Zealand. 相似文献
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The paper studies the statistical properties of deep earthquakes around North Island, New Zealand. We first evaluate the catalogue
coverage and completeness of deep events according to cusum (cumulative sum) statistics and earlier literature. The epicentral,
depth, and magnitude distributions of deep earthquakes are then discussed. It is worth noting that strong grouping effects
are observed in the epicentral distribution of these deep earthquakes. Also, although the spatial distribution of deep earthquakes
does not change, their occurrence frequencies vary from time to time, active in one period, relatively quiescent in another.
The depth distribution of deep earthquakes also hardly changes except for events with focal depth less than 100 km. On the
basis of spatial concentration we partition deep earthquakes into several groups—the Taupo-Bay of Plenty group, the Taranaki
group, and the Cook Strait group. Second-order moment analysis via the two-point correlation function reveals only very small-scale
clustering of deep earthquakes, presumably limited to some hot spots only. We also suggest that some models usually used for
shallow earthquakes fit deep earthquakes unsatisfactorily. Instead, we propose a switching Poisson model for the occurrence
patterns of deep earthquakes. The goodness-of-fit test suggests that the time-varying activity is well characterized by a
switching Poisson model. Furthermore, detailed analysis carried out on each deep group by use of switching Poisson models
reveals similar time-varying behavior in occurrence frequencies in each group. 相似文献
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David Vere-Jones 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(6-7):645-653
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D. Vere-Jones 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1966,64(1):31-42
Summary A model for aftershocks is put forward in which it is supposed that successive aftershocks represent transitions of an energy system from one state to the next, the successive states being linked in a Markov chain. Expressions are derived for the aftershock frequency, the energy release, and the frequency-magnitude law. 相似文献