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1.
A review of seasonal climate prediction research in China 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
2.
LANG Xianmei 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(5):682-690
In this paper, seasonal prediction of spring dust weather frequency (DWF) in Beijing during 1982-2008 has been performed. First, correlation analyses are conducted to identify antecedent climate signals during last winter that are statistically significantly related to spring DWF in Beijing. Then, a seasonal prediction model of spring DWF in Beijing is established through multivariate linear regression analysis, in which the systematic error between the result of original prediction model and the observation, averaged over the last 10 years, is corrected. In addition, it is found that climate signals occurring synchronously with spring dust weather, particularly meridional wind at 850 hPa over western Mongolian Plateau, are also linked closely to spring DWF in Beijing. As such, statistical and dynamic prediction approaches should be combined to include these synchronous predictors into the prediction model in the real-time operational prediction, so as to further improve the prediction accuracy of spring DWF in Beijing, even over North China. However, realizing such a prediction idea in practice depends essentially on the ability of climate models in predicting key climate signals associated with spring DWF in Beijing. 相似文献
3.
为了对塔里木盆地中石化探区含氦气藏资源进行调查研究,在广泛调研前人氦气研究成果的基础上,采集了塔里木盆地中石化探区9个井区、6个层系的22个天然气样品,利用质谱法对天然气中的氦气含量进行分析,并探讨了不同地区氦气成藏的主控因素。结果表明,巴什托地区BK3井巴楚组天然气2个样品氦气含量为0.103%、0.116%,达到了含氦气藏的标准; 顺北地区奥陶系6个天然气样品氦气含量在0.026%~0.151%之间,仅1个样品达到含氦气标准。塔北地区寒武系—古近系32个天然气样品的氦气含量在0.01%~0.08%之间,均未达到含氦气标准。塔里木盆地氦气成藏主要受氦源、深大通源断裂、成藏期次、保存条件等因素共同控制。巴什托地区、顺北地区是氦气的有利聚集区带,塔北地区氦气成藏条件相对不利。 相似文献
4.
Dawsonite, NaAlCO3(OH)2, is widespread as a cement, replacement and cavity filling in Hailaer Basin in China and Bowen-Gunnedah-Sydney (BGS) basin system in Australia. The origin of dawsonite is emphatically contrasted and analyzed through stable isotopic composition. Dawsonite δ13C values ranging from -4.0×10-3 to 4.1×10-3 are remarkably consistent through the BGS basin system. The calculated δ13C values of CO2 gas in isotopic equilibrium with dawsonite range from -11.3×10-3 to -4.6×10-3. These values indicate carbon of dawsonite came from inorganic CO2 gas accompanied by magmatic activity. In Hailaer Basin, the Dawsonite δ13C values ranging from -4.64×10-3 to 2.12×10-3 are also consistent. The calculated δ13C values of CO2 gas in isotopic equilibrium with dawsonite range from -11.82×10-3 to -5.11×10-3. According to the coincidence of dawsonite-bearing well and CO2 gas well with mantle source,lying along deep fracture within or adjacent to Yanshanian granite,it is concluded that CO2 gas forming dawsonite is derived from mantle related to magmatic process during the Yanshanian. A little biologic origin carbon owing to petroleum charging intervened when dawsonite formed. 相似文献
5.
We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and interannual variability over China for the period 1961–2005 and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the period1979–2005. All 92 models are able to simulate the geographical distribution of the above variables reasonably well.Compared with earlier CMIP5 models, current CMIP6 models have nationally weaker cold biases, a similar nationwide overestimation of precipitation and a weaker underestimation of the southeast–northwest precipitation gradient, a comparable overestimation of the spatial variability of the interannual variability, and a similar underestimation of the strength of winter monsoon over northern Asia. Pairwise comparison indicates that models have improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer monsoon. The ability of models relates to their horizontal resolutions in certain aspects. Both the multi-model arithmetic mean and median display similar skills and outperform most of the individual models in all considered aspects. 相似文献
6.
Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4?C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4?C global warming will occur is 2084.Based on the median results of models that project a 4?C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5?C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation. 相似文献
7.
Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-to-noise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the inter-model consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation. 相似文献
8.
地面气象站环境变化对气温序列均一性影响 总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9
为研究浙江省地面气象站环境变化对气温序列均一性的影响程度,采用测站历史沿革资料,对全省测站环境的时空演变进行了分析。采用距平累加、偏差界限值、F值检验法,对36个代表站的年平均气温序列进行均一性检验,并对非均一性产生的原因进行分析。结果表明:1971~2004年,浙江省测站的地理环境有显著改变;36站中有39%的测站为非均一性,产生非均一性的测站中,迁站原因占57%,环境恶化占36%;测站迁站引起的非均一性多发生在1980年以后;测站迁站时,新旧站址海拔高度差大且地理环境差异显著是造成气温序列非均一性的主要原因,迁站后气温序列较旧址存在偏高或偏低现象,其值对累年平均值有影响。指出了测站在迁移或环境变化过程中应注意的事项,以助于减少气温序列非均一性。 相似文献
9.
Wang Yong Hou Zengqian Mo Xuanxue Dong Fangliu Bi Xianmei Zeng Pusheng 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2007,1(3):322-332
More than 140 middle-small sized deposits or minerals are present in the Weishan-Yongping ore concentration area which is
located in the southern part of a typical Lanping strike-slip and pull-apart basin. It has plenty of mineral resources derived
from the collision between the Indian and Asian plates. The ore-forming fluid system in the Weishan-Yongping ore concentration
area can be divided into two subsystems, namely, the Zijinshan subsystem and Gonglang arc subsystem. The ore-forming fluids
of Cu, Co deposits in the Gonglang arc fluid subsystem have δD values between −83.8‰ and −69‰, δ18O values between 4.17‰ and 10.45‰, and δ13C values between −13.6‰ and 3.7‰, suggesting that the ore-forming fluids of Cu, Co deposits were derived mainly from magmatic
water and partly from formation water. The ore-forming fluids of Au, Pb, Zn, Fe deposits in the Zijinshan subsystem have δD
values between −117.4‰ and −76‰, δ18O values between 5.32‰ and 9.56‰, and Δ13C values between −10.07‰ and −1.5‰. The ore-forming fluids of Sb deposits have δD values between −95‰ and −78‰, δ18O values between 4.5‰ and 32.3‰, and Δ13C values between −26.4‰ and −1.9‰. Hence, the ore-forming fluids of the Zijinshan subsystem must have been derived mainly
from formation water and partly from magmatic water. Affected by the collision between the Indian and Asian plates, ore-forming
fluids in Weishan-Yongping basin migrated considerably from southwest to northeast. At first, the Gonglang arc subsystem with
high temperature and high salinity was formed. With the development of the ore-forming fluids, the Zijinshan subsystem with
lower temperature and lower salinity was subsequently formed.
Translated from Mineral Deposits, 2006, 25(1): 60–70 [译自: 矿床地质] 相似文献
10.
右江盆地三叠纪槽盆相浊流沉积岩系遭受过区域极低级变质作用。依据地质观察和伊利石结晶度、绿泥石-云母堆垛集合体、标志性粘土矿物及白云母(伊利石)b0参数测定资料,阐述了泥质岩石的成岩变质作用经浅层(近)变质作用到浅变质作用的转换特征。变质温度区间为150-350℃,低压类型,具高地温梯度(40-43℃/km).变质级及亚带总体与地层时代及岩层在地层柱中的位置有耦合关系,而与区域变形强度无关。最后指出区域极低级变质作用是印支-燕山构造旋回早期及区域变形前的地质事件,属于地壳伸展构造背景下右江边缘型盆地内部的埋藏型变质作用。 相似文献