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Lise Byskov Herslund Fatemeh Jalayer Nathalie Jean-Baptiste Gertrud Jørgensen Sigrun Kabisch Wilbard Kombe Sarah Lindley Patrik Karlsson Nyed Stephan Pauleit Andreas Printz Trond Vedeld 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):149-172
In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation. 相似文献
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Iqbal Hossain H. M. Rasel Monzur Alam Imteaz Fatemeh Mekanik 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(7):280
Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91. 相似文献
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Kazem Kazemi Ali Kananian Yilin Xiao Fatemeh Sarjoughian 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(22):717
The Haji Abad intrusion is a well-exposed Middle Eocene I-type granodioritc pluton in the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic assemblage (UDMA). The major constituents of the investigated rocks are K-feldspar, quartz, plagioclase, pyroxene, and minor Fe–Ti oxide and hornblende. The plagioclase compositions fall in the labradorite, andesine, and oligoclase fields. The amphiboles range in composition from magnesio-hornblende to tremolite–hornblende of the calcic-amphibole group. Most pyroxenes principally plot in the field of diopside. The calculated average pressure of emplacement is 1.9 kbar for the granodioritic rocks, crystallizing at depths of about 6.7 km. The highest pressure estimated from clinopyroxene geobarometry (5 kbar) reflects initial pyroxene crystallization pressure, indicating initial crystallization depth (17.5 km) in the Haji Abad granodiorite. The estimated temperatures using two-feldspar thermometry give an average 724 °C. The calculated average temperature for clinopyroxene crystallization is 1090 °C. The pyroxene temperatures are higher than the estimated temperature by feldspar thermometry, indicating that the pyroxene and feldspar temperatures represent the first and late stages of magmatic crystallization of Haji Abad granodiorite, respectively. Most pyroxenes plot above the line of Fe3+?=?0, indicating they crystallized under relatively high oxygen fugacity or oxidized conditions. Furthermore, the results show that the Middle Eocene granitoids crystallized from magmas with H2O content about 3.2 wt%. The relatively high water content is consistent with the generation environment of HAG rocks in an active continental margin and has allowed the magma to reach shallower crustal levels. The MMEs with ellipsoidal and spherical shapes show igneous microgranular textures and chilled margins, probably indicating the presence of magma mixing. Besides, core to rim compositional oscillations (An and FeO) for the plagioclase crystals serve as robust evidence to support magma mixing. The studied amphiboles and pyroxenes are grouped in the subalkaline fields that are consistent with crystallization from I-type calc-alkaine magma in the subduction environment related to active continental margin. Mineral chemistry data indicate that Haji Abad granodiorites were generated in an orogenic belt related to the volcanic arc setting consistent with the subduction of Neo-Tethyan oceanic crust beneath the central Iranian microcontinent. 相似文献
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Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Due to undesired mechanical characteristics, some forest soils cause problems in road construction. Several methods have been proposed for stabilizing... 相似文献
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Sakineh?Mashjoor Fatemeh?Heidary?Jamebozorgi Ehsan?KamraniEmail author 《Ocean Science Journal》2018,53(4):655-665
Ecosystem-based management is one of the most important approaches that may lead to reducing the impacts of fishing on ecosystems. In this context, we have assessed the impact of Iranian coastal fishing (using landing data of 49 exploited species) on the ecosystem of the North Sea of Oman (Sistan and Baluchestan Province), during the last decade (2002–2011), with emphasis on testing the occurrence of the “fishing down? phenomenon. The Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Fishing-in-Balance (FiB) index are two indicators that we used for analysis. The data indicated that the increased total landings in this region might be related to the exploitation of marine fishery resources especially with regard to large pelagic fish. Over the past decade, moderate decreasing trends in MTL and an increasing trend in the FiB-index were observed. In this regard, an upward trend in the spatial expansion factor and also a downward trend in the piscivory index and in Primary Production Required (PPR) in the time period could all indicate a spatial expansion toward deep waters, the catching of the large pelagic piscivorous species, such as tuna, and a sign of fishing pressures on the ecosystem. The results suggest a range of fishery exploitation patterns throughout the food web but it seems that these patterns are not a consequence of ?fishing down?. We suggest that the monitoring research be continued in this region and these indicators should be used to make fisheries management decisions and to prevent the continuance of this trend in future. 相似文献
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Delineation of groundwater potential zones using remote sensing and GIS-based data-driven models 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
The rapid increase in human population has increased the groundwater resources demand for drinking, agricultural and industrial purposes. The main purpose of this study is to produce groundwater potential map (GPM) using weights-of-evidence (WOE) and evidential belief function (EBF) models based on geographic information system in the Azna Plain, Lorestan Province, Iran. A total number of 370 groundwater wells with discharge more than 10 m3s?1were considered and out of them, 256 (70%) were randomly selected for training purpose, while the remaining114 (30%) were used for validating the model. In next step, the effective factors on the groundwater potential such as altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, curvature, distance from rivers, drainage density, topographic wetness index, fault distance, fault density, lithology and land use were derived from the spatial geodatabases. Subsequently, the GPM was produced using WOE and EBF models. Finally, the validation of the GPMs was carried out using areas under the ROC curve (AUC). Results showed that the GPM prepared using WOE model has the success rate of 73.62%. Similarly, the AUC plot showed 76.21% prediction accuracy for the EBF model which means both the models performed fairly good predication accuracy. The GPMs are useful sources for planners and engineers in water resource management, land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose. 相似文献
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The relationship among environmental variables,jellyfish and non‐gelatinous zooplankton: A case study in the north of the Gulf of Oman 
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下载免费PDF全文 Fatemeh Pourjomeh Mohammad Reza Shokri Hamid Rezai Hassan Rajabi‐Maham Elham Maghsoudlou 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(6)
Processes underlying the temporal and spatial variations observed in the distribution of jellyfish and non‐gelatinous zooplankton in the Gulf of Oman are not well understood. This information gap is clearly a major issue in controlling the harmful blooms of jellyfish and non‐gelatinous zooplankton. Samples of jellyfish and non‐gelatinous zooplankton were collected from six stations in Chabahar Bay and three stations in Pozm Bay within four seasons. At each station, environmental variables were also recorded from bottom and surface water. A total of 83 individuals of medusae representing four species of Scyphozoa (i.e., Cyanea nozakii, Chrysaora sp., Pelagia noctiluca, Catostylus tagi) and species of Hydrozoa (i.e., Diphyes sp., Rhacostoma sp., Aequorea spp.) were observed in the study area. A total of 70,727.25 individuals/m?3 of non‐gelatinous zooplankton dominated by copepods and cladocerans were collected in nine stations within the four seasons. The results of a RELATE analysis yielded no significant association between species composition for jellyfish and non‐gelatinous zooplankton. Among environmental variables, water transparency, nitrite concentration, water depth and temperature were better associated with the total variation in jellyfish species composition than with that of non‐gelatinous zooplankton. Dissolved oxygen, pH, and phosphate concentration were significant environmental variables associated with the variation in the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of non‐gelatinous zooplankton assemblages. Although some jellyfish species (i.e., Rhacostoma sp., Pelagia noctiluca, Catostylus tagi) occur independently of non‐gelatinous zooplankton assemblages, other jellyfish (i.e., Chrysaora sp., Aequorea spp., Cyanea nozakii, Diphyes sp.) are strongly correlated with non‐gelatinous zooplankton assemblages. 相似文献
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Neda Khanmohammadi Hossein Rezaie Majid Montaseri Javad Behmanesh 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(15):540
Temporal changes of meteorological variables can affect reference evapotranspiration (ET0). The goal of the present research is to analyze the changes of ET0 and identify the impact of effective meteorological parameters to the changes of ET0. For this purpose, daily meteorological data recorded in 30 synoptic stations of Iran during 1960–2014 were used. The annual and seasonal values of ET0 were calculated by the recorded data. To calculate ET0, FAO56 Penman–Monteith method (standard method) was used. The annual and seasonal trends of ET0 and its eight effective parameters were analyzed. Then the contributions of effective parameters changes on ET0 were determined. To analyze ET0 trend at annual and seasonal scales, two common methods, Spearman’s Rho and Mann–Kendall tests, were used. The R 2 = 0.99 showed that the results of the mentioned methods were similar and on the basis of T-statistic <0.057, their difference was not significant (95% confidence level). Therefore, only one method’s results (Spearman’s Rho) were reported. On the basis of Spearman’s Rho results, the annual and seasonal values of ET0 had negative trend in most of arid and semi-arid stations while the trend of this parameter was positive in humid and very humid stations. At annual and seasonal scales, decreasing in wind speed (W), temperature (T), sunshine hours (n), minimum temperature (TN), dew point temperature (TD), maximum temperature (TX), saturation vapor pressure deficit (SVPD) and solar radiation (RS) was observed in 58, 54, 39, 43, 56, 65, 65 and 37% studied stations, respectively. In many scales, the results showed that TX and W were the most effective meteorological variables on ET0 changes and then SVPD was located in second step in arid and semi-arid stations. In humid and very humid stations, W was the first effective parameter at all scales, except autumn. 相似文献