Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency,... 相似文献
Natural Resources Research - Groundwater is a vital water source in the rural and urban areas of developing and developed nations. In this study, a novel hybrid integration approach of... 相似文献
Modelling uncertainty can significantly affect the structural seismic reliability assessment. However, the limit state excursion due to this type of uncertainty may not be described by a Poisson process as it lacks renewal properties with the occurrence of each earthquake event. Furthermore, considering uncertainties related to ground motion representation by employing recorded ground motions together with modelling uncertainties is not a trivial task. Robust fragility assessment, proposed previously by the authors, employs the structural response to recorded ground motion as data in order to update prescribed seismic fragility models. Robust fragility can be extremely efficient for considering also the structural modelling uncertainties by creating a dataset of one-to-one assignments of structural model realizations and as-recorded ground motions. This can reduce the computational effort by more than 1 order of magnitude. However, it should be kept in mind that the fragility concept itself is based on the underlying assumption of Poisson-type renewal. Using the concept of updated robust reliability, considering both the uncertainty in ground motion representation based on as-recorded ground motion and non ergodic modelling uncertainties, the error introduced through structural reliability assessment by using the robust fragility is quantified. It is shown through specific application to an existing RC frame that this error is quite small when the product of the time interval and the standard deviation of failure rate is small and is on the conservative side. 相似文献
Water Resources - The present study aimed to locate the areas prone to flood spreading in order to manage surface water resources. Therefore, the information layers of slope, land capability,... 相似文献
Meteorological drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs over various time scales and may cause significant economic, environmental and social damages. Three drought characteristics, namely duration, average severity and peak intensity, are important variables in water resources planning and decision making. This study presents a new method for construction of three-dimensional copulas to describe the joint distribution function of meteorological drought characteristics. Using the inference function for margins, the parameters for six types of copulas were tested to select the best-fitted copulas. According to the values of the log-likelihood function, Galambos, Frank and Clayton were the selected copula models to describe the dependence structure for pairs of duration–severity, severity–peak and duration–peak, respectively. Trivariate cumulative probability, conditional probability and drought return period were also investigated based on the derived copula-based joint distributions. The proposed model was evaluated over the observed data of a Qazvin synoptic station, and the results were compared with the empirical probabilities. For measuring the model accuracy, R2, root mean square error (RMSE) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criteria were used. Results indicated that R2, RMSE and NSE were equal to 0.91, 0.098 and 0.668, respectively, which demonstrate sufficient accuracy of the proposed model. Drought probabilistic characteristics can provide useful information for water resource planning and management. 相似文献
The pre-hospital emergency staff played a key role in transferring the injured patients to health centers. Usually, they reported changes in their decisions on the transfer of non-traumatic patients to hospitals. So, this study was aimed to explore the reasons for unnecessarily requesting an ambulance by non-traumatic patients after the acute responding-to-earthquake phase. This study was a qualitative study that data were analyzed by content analysis approach. Participants were eleven pre-hospital emergency technicians. Data were collected by three sessions of focus group discussion. Data analysis was led to emergence of a main theme: “feeling urgency due to turmoil and uncertainty.” This theme illustrates the basic approach of the inhabitants of the earthquake-stricken region when unnecessarily requesting an ambulance. This theme was derived from two main categories of “turbulent and uncertain conditions” and “psychological turmoil.” The category of “turbulent and uncertain conditions” was comprised of three subcategories: “unreliable care,” “inadequate facilities” and “turbulent living conditions.” The category of “psychological turmoil” was comprised of three subcategories: “psychological turmoil in survivors,” “healthcare providers deciding under pressure” and “turmoil in providing psychological and psychiatric services.” Ambulance dispatch may be unnecessarily performed owing to turbulent and unsure conditions and psychological turmoil in earthquake-stricken people and pre-hospital emergency staff. Providing earthquake-stricken people with psycho-medical services in their place of residence can significantly reduce the workload of pre-hospital emergency staff and consequently that of hospital staff and therefore save time and treatment costs and increase the quality of health services provided for the injured.
Rapid population growth, industrialization, and agricultural expansion in the Khoy area (northwestern Iran) have led to its dependence on groundwater and degradation of groundwater quality. This study attempts to decipher the major processes and factors that degrade the groundwater quality of the Khoy plain. For this purpose, 54 groundwater samples from unconfined and confined aquifers of the plain were collected in July 2017 and analyzed for major cations and anions (Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO3, SO4, and Cl), minor ions (NO3 and F), and Al. Magnesium and bicarbonate were identified as the dominant cation and anion, respectively. Several ionic ratios and geochemical modeling using PHREEQC indicated that the most important hydrogeochemical processes to affect groundwater quality in the plain were weathering and dissolution of evaporitic and silicate minerals, mixing, and ion exchange. There were smaller effects from evaporation and anthropogenic factors (e.g., industries). Results showed that the high salinity of the groundwater in the northeast area of the plain was due to the high solubility of the evaporitic minerals, e.g., halite and gypsum. Reverse ion exchange and the contribution of mineral dissolution were more significant than ion exchange in the northeastern part of the plain. Elevated salinity of the groundwater in the southeast was attributed mostly to reverse ion exchange and somewhat to evaporation. 相似文献
Due to the explosive industrialization and rapid expansion of the population in many parts of the world, heavy metals are released into the environment continuously and pose a great risk on human health. Street dust and surface soil samples from very heavy, heavy, medium and low traffic areas and a natural site in Tehran, Iran, were analyzed for some physicochemical features, total and chemical fractionating of selected metals (Zn, Al, Sr, Pb, Cu, Cr, Cd, Co, Ni and V) to investigate the influence of traffic on their mobility and accumulation in the environment. The pH, electrical conductivity (EC), carbonates and organic carbon contents were similar in soil and dust samples from the areas with same traffic. The traffic increases EC contents in dust/soil matrixes, but has no effect on concentrations of metals in soil samples. Rises in metal levels with traffic were found in dust samples. Moreover, the traffic increases the percentage of both acid-soluble and reducible fractions, which are related to Pb and Zn. The mobilization of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr in dust samples was easier than in soil. The speciation of metals except Cd is mainly affected by physicochemical features in soil, though total metals affected the speciation in dust samples (except chromium and nickel). 相似文献
Precipitation is a major climatic element with high spatial variations. Temporal and spatial variations may differ in large and small scales. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to study areas with similar gradients in terms of precipitation patterns in order to shed light on the complexities of precipitation variations. In the present study, attempts were made to identify areas with similar gradients experiencing the same precipitation pattern over a 50-year period (1964–2013). To this end, data were collected from synoptic stations in Iran in two phases (i.e., 1434 stations in the first phase and 673 stations in the second one). Alexanderson’s technique was adopted to examine sudden changes in precipitation patterns. The results showed that five regions with similar gradients could be identified in terms of precipitation patterns: negative and high variations, negative and moderate variations, positive and high variations, positive and moderate variations, and little or no variations. The distribution of such regions indicated that the regions with positive trends experienced more annual variations and had further spatial distribution. Furthermore, the findings revealed that the regions with negative precipitation patterns experienced more sudden changes in comparison with those with positive precipitation patterns. Additionally, more variations were observed in the precipitation patterns in recent years. 相似文献
The grain size distribution (GSD) of sediment in comparison with the original soil GSD is discussed under different slopes (5, 15 and 25%) and rainfall intensities (30, 60 and 90 mm h–1 with respective duration of 30, 15 and 10 min) but identical runoff (15 mm). The sediment quantification was carried out by raindrop-induced flow transport (RIFT) or/and transport by flow (FT) using a rainfall simulator and a 6 × 1 m2 erosion plot and a silt loam. The results show a high degree of enrichment for size classes of 2–4 and 4–8 μm and a high degree of depletion for size classes of >63 μm under different slopes and rainfall intensities. In addition, the results show that the experimental enrichment ratio (ER) for particle size <16 μm under different slopes and rainfall intensities was greater than 1, while the ER for particle size >32 μm was less than 1. 相似文献