Projections of severe droughts in future climate in Southeast Brazil: a case study in Southern Minas Gerais State,Brazil     

Silva  Vinicius Oliveira  de Mello  Carlos Rogério  Chou  Sin Chan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):1289-1302

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - South of Minas Gerais state, in Southeast Brazil, is known for the coffee crop production (more than 30% of country’s production) and hydroelectricity...  相似文献   

Customer concerns about uncertainty and willingness to pay in leasing solar power systems     

L. H. Shih  T. Y. Chou 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2011,8(3):523-532

Although solar power systems are considered as one of the most promising renewable energy sources, some uncertain factors as well as the high cost could be barriers which create customer resistance. Leasing instead of purchase, as one type of product service system, could be an option to reduce consumer concern on such issues. This study focuses on consumer concerns about uncertainty and willingness to pay for leasing solar power systems. Conjoint analysis method is used to find part worth utilities and estimate gaps of willingness to pay between attribute levels, including various leasing time lengths. The results show the part worth utilities and relative importance of four major attributes, including leasing time. Among concerns about uncertainties, government subsidy, electricity price, reliability, and rise of new generation solar power systems were found to be significantly related to the additional willingness-to-pay for a shorter leasing time. Cluster analysis is used to identify two groups standing for high and low concerns about uncertainty. People with more concerns tend to pay more for a shorter lease time.  相似文献   

基于时间序列雷达干涉测量的钱塘江海塘形变分析     

张云俊  万紫  谢酬  邵芸  袁名欢  陈武  王新 《遥感学报》2015,19(2):339-354

形变监测是海塘安全运行的重要组成部分。本文利用杭州地区2006年—2010年获取的31景EnvisatASAR影像,根据MTInSAR(Multi-Temporal In SAR)方法,综合提取PS(Persistent Scatterer)和DS(Distributed Scatterer)点,得到密集的钱塘江海塘形变的In SAR测量结果。与28个点的水准数据对比表明,两者的平均误差为0.436 mm,最大误差为5.016 mm,验证了In SAR技术毫米级的测量精度和准确性。通过这两种数据的时间序列分析发现,海塘的沉降在空间上具有连续性,其空间分布呈现为单峰下沉曲线;在时间上,则具有明显的线性变化规律,并伴随有短时间范围的小幅度波动。  相似文献   

A brief introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and its earth surface temperature simulations     

Shili Yang  Wenjie Dong  Jieming Chou  Jinming Feng  Xiaodong Yan  Zhigang Wei  Wenping Yuan  Yan Guo  Yanli Tang  Jiacong Hu 《大气科学进展》2015,32(12):1683-1688

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.  相似文献   

The activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves in CMIP3 global climate models     

Ping Huang  Chia Chou  Ronghui Huang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(3-4):697-711

This study evaluates the convectively coupled equatorial waves in ten coupled general circulation models (GCMs) in the twentieth century experiment from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme. The antisymmetric bands in all GCMs are weaker than in observations, and the mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) wave seems to be a mixture of the equatorial Rossby (ER) and tropical depression-type (TD-type) waves rather than a mixture of the ER and inertiogravity waves found in observations. The simulated TD-type wave is more organized than in observations with a quasilinear wavenumber–frequency relationship. In most GCMs, the two observed activity centers of the MRG and TD-type waves over the southern Indian Ocean and the southwestern Pacific cannot be separated; only one wave activity center is found over the Maritime Continent. The observed northwestward propagation of the TD-type wave over the western North Pacific is also not well simulated in the GCMs. The simulated active season of the MRG and TD-type waves over the northern hemisphere during the boreal summer and fall is much shorter than in observations. The models from CCSR utilizing the Pan and Randall scheme with the convection suppression simulate the realistic Kelvin wave activity with the maximum activity near the equator, while the wave activities filtered for the Kelvin wave in the other GCMs are similar to the extratropical Rossby wave with the maximum activity at higher latitudes. Likewise, only these two models produce a realistic seasonal cycle of the Kelvin wave activity.  相似文献   

Complexity analysis of rainfall and runoff time series based on sample entropy in different temporal scales   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

Chien-Ming Chou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1401-1408

This study applied sample entropy (SampEn) to rainfall and runoff time series to investigate the complexity of different temporal scales. Rainfall and runoff time series with intervals of 1, 10, 30, 90, and 365 days for the Wu-Tu upstream watershed were used. Thereafter, SampEn was computed for the five rainfall and runoff time series. The results show that for the various temporal scales, comparisons of the complexity between the rainfall and runoff time series based on the SampEn are inconsistent. Calculating the dynamic SampEn further elucidated variations of the complexity in the rainfall and runoff time series. In addition, the results show that SampEn measures of the rainfall and runoff time series are typically higher than the approximate entropy measures of the rainfall and runoff time series for a specific temporal scale. The complexity increases when the sample size increases for a specific temporal scale. Furthermore, temporal scales with low complexity and high predictability are obtained from the variations of SampEn for the rainfall and runoff time series with different temporal scales, thereby providing a reference for determining the appropriate temporal scale for rainfall and runoff time series forecasting.  相似文献   

Fractured-bedrock aquifer studies based on a descriptive statistics of well-logging data: A case study from the Dajia River basin,Taiwan     

Po-Yi Chou  Shih-Meng Hsu  Po-Jui Chen  Jung-Jun Lin  Hung-Chieh Lo 《Acta Geophysica》2014,62(3):564-584

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Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Sin Chan Chou  José A. Marengo  André A. Lyra  Gustavo Sueiro  José F. Pesquero  Lincoln M. Alves  Gillian Kay  Richard Betts  Diego J. Chagas  Jorge L. Gomes  Josiane F. Bustamante  Priscila Tavares 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(3-4):635-653

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce “present climate”—the period 1961–1990—reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5° latitude?×?3.75° longitude were provided at a frequency of 6?h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961–90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Ni?o and La Ni?a years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.  相似文献   

An upgraded version of the Eta model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Fedor Mesinger  Sin Chan Chou  Jorge L. Gomes  Dusan Jovic  Paulo Bastos  Josiane F. Bustamante  Lazar Lazic  André A. Lyra  Sandra Morelli  Ivan Ristic  Katarina Veljovic 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2012,116(3-4):63-79

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.  相似文献   

Seismic self‐centering steel beam‐to‐column moment connections using bolted friction devices     

Keh‐Chyuan Tsai  Chung‐Che Chou  Chi‐Lon Lin  Pei‐Ching Chen  Sheng‐Jhih Jhang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(4):627-645

This paper first presents the force–deformation relationship of a post‐tensioned (PT) steel beam‐to‐column connection constructed with bolted web friction devices (FDs). This paper then describes the test program conducted in the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, Taiwan, on four bolted FDs and four full‐scale PT beam‐to‐column moment connection subassemblies using the FDs. Tests confirm that (1) the hysteretic behavior of four bolted FDs is very stable, (2) the friction coefficient between the steel plate and the brass shim is about 0.34, (3) the proposed force–deformation relationships reasonably predict the experimental responses of the PT connections under cyclically increasing deformations up to a beam peak rotation of 0.05 rad, and (4) the decompression moments do not degrade as beam cyclic deformations increase. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献