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We developed generalised additive models (GAMs) to estimate standardised time-series of population abundance indices for assessment purposes and to infer ecological and behavioural information on northern Benguela hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using haul-by-haul commercial trawl catch-rate data as proxies for hake densities. The modelling indicated that individual ship identifiers should be used rather than general vessel characteristics, such as vessel size. The final models explained 79% and 68% of the variability in the commercial catch rates of M. capensis and M. paradoxus, respectively. The spatial density patterns were consistent and confirmed existing knowledge about these species in the northern Benguela system. Furthermore, seasonal migration patterns were described for the first time and were found to correspond to the known spawning areas and seasons for M. capensis and M. paradoxus. Spatial density patterns were validated using the geostatistical modelling results of fisheries-independent trawl survey data. Improved understanding of the relationships between fleet dynamics and fish movement can be achieved by taking into consideration the present catch-rate model and spatial and seasonal distribution maps. We conclude that the yearly standardised CPUE time-series are problematic as proxies for total stock abundance because of spatial coverage issues. Consequently, such CPUE data should not be used for stock-size assessments and fisheries advice concerning northern Benguela hakes until this is solved. We generally recommend the exclusion of standardised CPUE time-series from stock assessments when important and changing parts of the stock distribution cannot be targeted by the fishery, such as due to closed areas or seasons. 相似文献
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一维热扩散湖模式在太湖的应用研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
利用在太湖获得的2010年8月11-28日的观测资料研究了一维热扩散湖模式在太湖的适用性,通过对比模拟进一步研究了影响太湖湖表温度模拟的主要因子。该湖模式对太湖最初的模拟结果并不理想,模拟的湖表面温度与观测有较大的系统性偏差,温度的日变化幅度与观测相比也偏小。通过分析该模式对太湖的模拟效果不理想的可能原因,针对太湖的生态环境和污染情况,设计了18个测试参数的敏感性试验,从敏感性试验的结果分析得到,适用于太湖的、依赖于湖泊类型的3个参数应做如下修改:消光系数（η0）应放大3倍,湖泊表层吸收的太阳辐射系数（β）应取0.8,粗糙长度（z0）采用公式计算得到。用新得到的适用于太湖的3个参数,模拟得到的结果与最初的模拟结果和观测资料对比,发现采用新的参数后,模拟结果比最初的模拟结果有了很大的改进,模拟的湖表温度基本接近观测,模拟的湖水垂直剖面时间序列图也跟观测吻合得较好,随之的感热、潜热通量的模拟也都与观测接近。最后,对输入湖模式的主要大气参量（太阳辐射、2 m气温及风场）±10%的误差引起的模式模拟的湖表面温度误差进行分析,结果表明该湖模式对大气强迫场的误差敏感度不高;相比之下,模拟结果对风场敏感性最小,对辐射和气温的敏感度相当。 相似文献
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JN Kathena A Kokkalis MW Pedersen JE Beyer UH Thygesen 《African Journal of Marine Science》2018,40(3):293-302
There is global interest in providing scientific advice on optimal harvesting of all commercially exploited fish stocks. Nevertheless, many commercially important stocks lack analytical assessments. Therefore, we evaluate a data-moderate stock assessment method: the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT). The method was applied to two Namibian stocks: (i) the data-rich Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus, where results are compared to a new data-rich assessment using a state–space assessment model (SAM); and (ii) the data-moderate west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis, which is an important bycatch species in the Cape monkfish fishery, but currently unassessed. The information available to the data-moderate assessment is total commercial catch, commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE), and survey CPUE. SPiCT and SAM gave largely consistent estimates of relative fishing mortality (F/FMSY) and relative exploitable biomass (B/BMSY) for the Cape monkfish stock, although with some discrepancies. Differences in the biomass estimates between the two assessments suggest that further investigation is required to understand the cause, and that some caution is necessary when considering the biomass of the stock. SPiCT shows that the west coast sole may be overexploited, although the confidence bounds were too wide for a firm conclusion. Similarity in the estimates of F/FMSY for Cape monkfish in recent years, using SPiCT relative to SAM, likewise indicates the suitability of SPiCT for managing west coast sole. 相似文献
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青海锡铁山铅锌矿床硫同位素地球化学研究——深源与海水硫的混合 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
锡铁山铅锌矿床发育较为完整的喷流沉积系统,包括管道相、近喷口相、远端沉积相及各种喷流沉积岩,并有后期改造作用形成的脉状铅锌矿体。本文通过喷流沉积系统各部位硫化物硫同位素的分析,不同部位硫化物硫同位素组成不同,且规律性变化。以黄铁矿分析结果为例,网脉状石英钠长岩δ34S=+0.8‰,代表供给系统的硫化物脉2.95‰,非层状矿体4.48‰,层状矿体3.25‰,炭质片岩为+6.26‰,后期改造型铅锌矿脉为+2.93‰。代表管道相的网脉状石英钠长岩黄铁矿具有深源(幔源)的硫同位素组成,而矿体或大理岩上盘炭质片岩具有海水硫来源的特点。矿体的硫介于二者之间,更靠近炭质片岩的硫化物同位素组成,其来源可能更多受海水硫酸盐的制约,即锡铁山矿床硫具有混合来源性质,主要是海水硫酸盐的还原,部分来源于深部卤水的供给。硫的还原方式以生物细菌还原为主。层状矿体中硫同位素组成由早至晚δ34S逐渐降低,表明层状矿体成矿作用过程中,发生了生物成因的H2S的大量加入。 相似文献
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T Jansen K Kristensen TP Fairweather P Kainge JN Kathena MD Durholtz 《African Journal of Marine Science》2017,39(3):349-361
Optimal and sustainable management of fish resources cannot be ensured without a thorough understanding of the migration patterns and population (demographic stock) structure. Recent studies suggest that these aspects of the economically and ecologically important deepwater hake Merluccius paradoxus are not reflected in the current assessment and management practices for the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem. In this study, we compiled data from multiple demersal trawl surveys from the entire distribution area and applied state-of-the-art geostatistical population modelling (GeoPop) to estimate growth rate, mortality, and spatial and temporal distribution patterns of M. paradoxus. The data and the model enabled us to follow temporal and spatial changes in the distribution and infer movements from the recruitment/nursery areas, through the juvenile phase and the adults’ migration to the spawning areas outside/upstream of the nursery areas. The results indicated one primary recruitment/nursery area on the west coast of South Africa and a secondary less-productive recruitment/nursery area on the south coast near Port Elizabeth. Juveniles initially migrated away from the main recruitment area, followed by natal homing by larger individuals. This pattern was highly consistent through the time-series of the study. This perception of a, primarily, panmictic population that performs transboundary migrations between Namibia and South Africa corresponds largely to the hypothesis and data plots given in recent studies. We recommend that fisheries assessment, advice and management take into consideration these aspects of the distribution and population (stock) structure of M. paradoxus. 相似文献
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