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1.
Hydrogeochemical based mixing models have been successfully used to investigate the composition and source identification of streamflow. The applicability of these models is limited due to the high costs associated with data collection and the hydrogeochemical analysis of water samples. Fortunately, a variety of mixing models exist, requiting different amount of data as input, and in data scarce regions it is likely that preference will be given to models with the lowest requirement of input data. An unanswered question is if models with high or low input requirement are equally accurate. To this end, the performance of two mixing models with different input requirement, the mixing model analysis (MMA) and the end-member mixing analysis (EMMA), were verified on a tropical montane headwater catchment (21.7 km2) in the Ecuadorian Andes. Nineteen hydrogeochemical tracers were measured on water samples collected weekly during 3 years in streamflow and eight potential water sources or end-members (precipitation, lake water, soil water from different horizons and springs). Results based on 6 conservative tracers, revealed that EMMA (using all tracers) and MMA (using pair-combinations out of the 6 conservative ones), identified the same end-members: rainfall, soil water and spring water., as well as, similar contribution fractions to streamflow from rainfall 21.9% and 21.4%, soil water 52.7% and 52.3%, and spring water 26.1% and 28.7%, respectively. Our findings show that a hydrogeochemical mixing model requiring a few tracers can provide similar outcomes than models demanding more tracers as input data. This underlines the value of a preliminary detailed hydrogeochemical characterization as basis to derive the most cost-efficient monitoring strategy.  相似文献   
2.
Ephemeral gully (EG) erosion has an important impact on agricultural soil losses and increases field surface hydrology connectivity and transport of pollutants to nearby water bodies. Watershed models including an EG component are scarce and not yet properly evaluated. The objective of this study is to evaluate the capacity of one such tool, AnnAGNPS, to simulate the evolution of two EG formed in a conservation tillage system. The dataset for model testing included runoff measurements and EG morphological characteristics during 3 years. Model evaluation focused on EG evolution of volume, width, and length model outputs, and included calibration and testing phases and a global sensitivity analysis (GSA). While the model did not fully reproduce width and length, the model efficiency to simulate EG volume was satisfactory for both calibration and testing phases, supporting the watershed management objectives of the model. GSA revealed that the most sensitive factors were EG depth, critical shear stress, headcut detachment exponent coefficient b, and headcut detachment leading coefficient a. For EG outputs the model was additive, showing low sensitivity to interactions between the inputs. Prediction of EG spatial evolution on conservation tillage systems requires improved development of gully erosion components, since many of the processes were developed originally for traditional tillage practices or larger channel systems. Our results identify the need for future research when EG form within conservation tillage systems, in particular to study gully headcut, soil erodibility, and width functions specific to these practices.  相似文献   
3.
Madagascar has one of the highest poverty rates in the world and consequently the long-term monitoring of groundwater resources is not a priority for the authorities. However, groundwater is often the only sustainable resource that has a satisfactory quality to supply the population. This is especially true in the south-west of the country, which is a semi-arid region and a global change hot spot (intense land use and climate changes). In response to the lack of data, the Groundwater Resource Observatory for Southwestern Madagascar (GROSoM) was established to monitor piezometry and meteorology over the longer term as part of a humanitarian response. The first site was setup in 2014 in a catchment located over a carbonate plateau; in 2018, a second site was installed in an alluvial setting within a crystalline basement catchment and a third site will be installed in 2020 to monitor groundwater dynamics in a coastal setting. The three sites, located between Toliara and Taolagnaro cities, are complementary and representative of various hydrogeological systems in Southwestern Madagascar. Each site includes a weather station and between 3 and 6 piezometric probes. The monitoring data indicate a strong inter-annual variability in precipitation, which induces a strong variability in aquifers recharge. One of the driest years in 2016 seems to be consistent with strong El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects observed at the global scale, while years with higher recharge appear to be related to cyclones such as Fundi in 2015 and Eketsang in 2019. Preliminary results of cross-disciplinary studies demonstrated a link between groundwater and health issues (i.e., admissions to basic health centres). This observatory aims to produce long-term data and has two objectives: (i) strengthening the early warning system for humanitarian crises in Madagascar; (ii) contributing to a better understanding of the effects of climate change on groundwater resources in this semi-arid region.  相似文献   
4.
In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes.  相似文献   
5.
Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

  • Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

  • Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

  • More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

  相似文献   
6.
Hekla volcano is a major producer of large, widespread silicic tephras. About 3000 years ago, the dominant eruption mode shifted from infrequent large (>1 km3) to more frequent moderate (<1 km3) eruptions. In the following two millennia ≥20 explosive silicic-to-intermediate eruptions occurred, and six or more basaltic. Three categories can be identified with dacite/andesite to basaltic andesite in the oldest eruptions through basaltic andesite to basalt in the youngest eruptions. Ten tephra layers of the first category have distinct field characteristics: a pale lower unit and a dark upper unit (two coloured or TC-layers). Colour separation is sharp indicating a stratified magma chamber origin. The lower unit is dominantly andesitic (61–63% SiO2), while the upper unit is basaltic andesite (53–57% SiO2). Volumes of the eight largest TC-layers range from 0.2 to 0.7 km3 as freshly fallen. Radiocarbon and soil accumulation rate dates constrain the TC-layers to between 3000 and 2200 years ago. Two of these (~2890 and ~2920 b2k) are likely to occur overseas. Low SiO2 in the last erupted tephra of the TC-layers is comparable to that of historical Hekla lavas, implying a final effusive phase. The Hekla edifice may, consequently, be younger than 3000 years.  相似文献   
7.
The late Quaternary evolution of central-eastern Brazil has been under-researched. Questions remain as to the origin of the Cerrado, a highly endangered biome, and other types of vegetation, such as the Capões – small vegetation islands of semi-deciduous and mountain forests. We investigated the factors that influenced the expansion and contraction of the Cerrado and Capões during the late Quaternary (last ~35 ka), using a multi-proxy approach: stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N), geochemistry, pollen and multivariate statistics derived from a peat core (Pinheiro mire, Serra do Espinhaço Meridional). Five major shifts in precipitation, temperature, vegetation and landscape stability occurred at different timescales. Our study revealed that changes in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) seem to have been coeval with these shifts: from the Late Glacial Maximum to mid-Holocene the SACZ remained near (~29.6 to ~16.5k cal a bp ) and over (~16.5 to ~6.1 k cal a bp ) the study area, providing humidity to the region. This challenges previous research which suggested that climate was drier for this time period. At present, the Capões are likely to be a remnant of a more humid climate; meanwhile, the Cerrado biome seems to have stablished in the late Holocene, after ~3.1 k cal a bp .  相似文献   
8.
The heightening scale of urban tourism and the fast-growing number of “floating” city users raise new challenges to understand contemporary urban change – namely for internationally open, heritage-rich medium-sized cities. Discussing the case of Porto at a time when the contested notion of gentrification infuses local politics, we highlight the transnational drivers of this process in Portugal´s second city. While acknowledging perils and benefits, we argue that more than simply leaving a footprint to be solved with taxation, internationally-driven gentrification may endanger city diversity and identity, raising implications for urban policy and for our understanding of local development as a whole.  相似文献   
9.
Journal of Paleolimnology - We measured stable isotopes (δ18O and δ13C) in Sphagnum cellulose that was extracted from a long peat core drilled in the ombrotrophic Mohos peat bog, Ciomadul...  相似文献   
10.
The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m3/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity.  相似文献   
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