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Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results. 相似文献
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Eva De Boever Marijke Huysmans Philippe Muchez Lyubomir Dimitrov Rudy Swennen 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2009,26(8):1580-1591
Up to 10 m in length and >1 m in diameter tubular, calcite-cemented sandstone concretions are hosted by the faulted Dikilitash unconsolidated sands and sandstones. These structures document shallow subsurface pathways of Early Eocene methane seepage in the Balkan Mountains foreland (NE Bulgaria). Their exceptional exposure allowed a unique study of the factors governing the morphology and spatial distribution of such fossilized fluid conduits. The large dimensions and subvertical, cylindrical shape of the most common tube type primarily reflects the buoyancy-driven, vertical path of an ascending gas-bearing fluid through permeable, mainly unconsolidated sandy host sediments. Tube morphology was also influenced by local stratigraphic anisotropies and might as well document differences in former seepage conditions. Mapping of >800 tubular concretions showed the NNW–NNE elongation and alignment of tube clusters and massive cemented sandstone structures. This suggests that Paleogene fault systems played a major role in directing the movement of fluids. However, within a single tube cluster, tubes are preferentially aligned, over distances up to 50 m along directions at an angle between 10° and 36° with respect to the inferred NNW–NNE, cluster parallel fault traces. In addition, cylindrical tubes of analogue dimensions are aligned over distances >100 m along N15° to N25°-oriented directions. It is hypothesized that this spatial geometry of tubular concretions reflects the complex geometry of deformations structures in fault damage zones along which fluids were preferentially channelled. 相似文献
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Bart Rogiers Thomas Vienken Matej Gedeon Okke Batelaan Dirk Mallants Marijke Huysmans Alain Dassargues 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(5):1303-1324
Direct push (DP) technologies are typically used for cost-effective geotechnical characterization of unconsolidated soils and sediments. In more recent developments, DP technologies have been used for efficient hydraulic conductivity (K) characterization along vertical profiles with sampling resolutions of up to a few centimetres. Until date, however, only a limited number of studies document high-resolution in situ DP data for three-dimensional conceptual hydrogeological model development and groundwater flow model parameterization. This study demonstrates how DP technologies improve building of a conceptual hydrogeological model. We further evaluate the degree to which the DP-derived hydrogeological parameter K, measured across different spatial scales, improves performance of a regional groundwater flow model. The study area covers an area of ~60 km2 with two overlying, mainly unconsolidated sand aquifers separated by a 5–7 m thick highly heterogeneous clay layer (in north-eastern Belgium). The hydrostratigraphy was obtained from an analysis of cored boreholes and about 265 cone penetration tests (CPTs). The hydrogeological parameter K was derived from a combined analysis of core and CPT data and also from hydraulic direct push tests. A total of 50 three-dimensional realizations of K were generated using a non-stationary multivariate geostatistical approach. To preserve the measured K values in the stochastic realizations, the groundwater model K realizations were conditioned on the borehole and direct push data. Optimization was performed to select the best performing model parameterization out of the 50 realizations. This model outperformed a previously developed reference model with homogeneous K fields for all hydrogeological layers. Comparison of particle tracking simulations, based either on the optimal heterogeneous or reference homogeneous groundwater model flow fields, demonstrate the impact DP-derived subsurface heterogeneity in K can have on groundwater flow and solute transport. We demonstrated that DP technologies, especially when calibrated with site-specific data, provide high-resolution 3D subsurface data for building more reliable conceptual models and increasing groundwater flow model performance. 相似文献
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Marijke Huysmans Philippe Orban Elke Cochet Mathias Possemiers Benedicta Ronchi Katherine Lauriks Okke Batelaan Alain Dassargues 《Mathematical Geosciences》2014,46(5):519-537
This study investigates the effect of fine-scale clay drapes on tracer transport. A tracer test was performed in a sandbar deposit consisting of cross-bedded sandy units intercalated with many fine-scale clay drapes. The heterogeneous spatial distribution of the clay drapes causes a spatially variable hydraulic conductivity and sorption coefficient. A fluorescent tracer (sodium naphthionate) was injected in two injection wells and ground water was sampled and analyzed from five pumping wells. To determine (1) whether the fine-scale clay drapes have a significant effect on the measured concentrations and (2) whether application of multiple-point geostatistics can improve interpretation of tracer tests in media with complex geological heterogeneity, this tracer test is analyzed with a local three-dimensional ground-water flow and transport model in which fine-scale sedimentary heterogeneity is modeled using multiple-point geostatistics. To reduce memory needs and calculation time for the multiple-point geostatistical simulation step, this study uses the technique of direct multiple-point geostatistical simulation of edge properties. Instead of simulating pixel values, model cell edge properties indicating the presence of irregularly shaped surfaces are simulated using multiple-point geostatistical simulations. Results of a sensitivity analysis show under which conditions clay drapes have a significant effect on the concentration distribution. Calibration of the model against measured concentrations from the tracer tests reduces the uncertainty on the clay-drape parameters. The calibrated model shows which features of the breakthrough curves can be attributed to the geological heterogeneity of the aquifer and which features are caused by other processes. 相似文献
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Little is known about the century‐scale response of water levels in inland estuaries to sea‐level change and human modifications to estuarine morphology. This study explored the ability of using testate amoebae (Protozoa, Rhizopoda) from sediments of a freshwater tidal marsh as indicators of water level in an inland estuary. The hypothesis was that modern testate amoeba assemblages change with surface elevation (approximately the duration of tidal flooding) within a freshwater tidal marsh. Variation in testate amoeba assemblages in relation to multiple environmental variables and sediment characteristics was studied through redundancy analysis. This demonstrated that a significant part of the variation in modern testate amoeba assemblages could be explained by flooding frequency, surface elevation, organic content and particle size of the soil. Transfer functions, partial least squares and weighted average regressions were made to show that testate amoebae can be used for reconstruction of water level (with an accuracy of 0.05 Normalized Elevation). A preliminary test of application of the transfer function to palaeo testate amoeba assemblages showed promising results. Testate amoebae from a freshwater tidal marsh provide a potentially powerful new tool for estuarine water‐level reconstructions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Stochastic analysis of the effect of heterogeneity and fractures on radionuclide transport in a low-permeability clay layer 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Deep low-permeability clay layers are considered as safe environments for disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In Belgium,
the Boom Clay is a candidate host rock for deep geological disposal. In this study, we analyze the effects of fractures and
spatially variable hydraulic conductivity on radionuclide migration through the clay. Fracture geometry and properties are
simulated with Monte Carlo simulation. The heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity is simulated by direct sequential co-simulation
using measurements of hydraulic conductivity and four types of secondary variables. The hydraulic conductivity and fracture
simulations are used as input for a transport model. Radionuclide fluxes computed with this heterogeneous model are compared
with fluxes obtained with a homogeneous model. The output fluxes of the heterogeneous model differ at most 8% from the homogeneous
model. The main safety function of the Boom Clay is thus not affected by the fractures and the spatial variability of hydraulic
conductivity. 相似文献
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Stochastic analysis of the effect of spatial variability of diffusion parameters on radionuclide transport in a low permeability clay layer 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Most studies that incorporate subsurface heterogeneity in groundwater flow and transport models only analyze and simulate the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity. Heterogeneity of the other flow and transport parameters are usually neglected. This approach is often justified, but there are, however, cases in which disregarding the heterogeneity of the other flow and transport parameters can be questionable. In low permeability media, for instance, diffusion is often the dominant transport mechanism. It therefore seems logical to incorporate the spatial variability of the diffusion parameters in the transport model. This study therefore analyses and simulates the spatial variability of the effective diffusion coefficient and the diffusion accessible porosity with geostatistical techniques and incorporates their heterogeneity in the transport model of a low permeability formation. The formation studied was Boom clay (Belgium), a candidate host rock for the deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The calculated output radionuclide fluxes of this model are compared with the fluxes calculated with a homogeneous model and a model with a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity distribution. This analysis shows that the heterogeneity of the diffusion parameters has a much larger effect on the calculated output radionuclide fluxes than the heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity in the low permeability medium under study. 相似文献