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Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO2, or equivalent CO2 implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO2 doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO2 doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil  相似文献   
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Boulder 1, Station 2, Apollo 17 is a stratified boulder containing dark clasts and dark-rimmed light clasts set in a light-gray friable matrix. The gray to black clasts (GCBx and BCBx) are multigenerational, competent, high-grade metamorphic, and partially melted breccias. They contain a diverse suite of lithic clasts which are mainly ANT varieties, but include granites, basaltic-textured olivine basalts, troctolitic and spinel troctolitic basalts, and unusual lithologies such as KREEP norite, ilmenite (KREEP) microgabbro, and the Civet Cat norite, which is believed to be a plutonic differentiate. The GCBxs and BCBxs are variable in composition, averaging a moderately KREEPy olivine norite. The matrix consists of mineral fragments derived from the observed lithologies plus variable amounts of a component, unobserved as a clast-type, that approximates a KREEP basalt in composition, as well as mineral fragments of unknown derivation. The high-temperature GCBxs cooled substantially before their incorporation into the friable matrix of Boulder 1. The light friable matrix (LFBx) is texturally distinct from the competent breccia clasts and, apart from the abundant ANT clasts, contains clasts of a KREEPy basalt that is not observed in the competent breccias. The LFBx lacks such lithologies as the granites and the Civet Cat norite observed in the competent breccias and in detail is a distinct chemical as well as textural entity. We interpret the LFBx matrix as Serenitatis ejecta deposited in the South Massif, and the GCBx clasts as remnants of an ejecta blanket produced by an earlier impact. The source terrain for the Serenitatis impact consisted of the competent breccias, crustal ANT lithologies, and the KREEPy basalts, attesting to substantial lunar activity prior to the impact. The age of the older breccias suggests that the Serenitatis event is younger than 4.01±0.03 b.y.  相似文献   
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In that orcharding in early-to-mid twentieth century southeastern Australia involved use of certain heavy metal and As compounds in regular pest-control spray procedures, some interest attaches to the possibility that these landparcels are underlain by soils with above-background Cu, Pb and As levels. Interpreta- tion of Land-cover changes allowed land parcels previously occupied by orchards to be identified in the 1950s through time-series air-photos. A comparison of soil analysis results referring to soil samples from control sites, and from land parcels formerly occupied by orchardists, shows that contamination (above-background) levels of cations in the pesticides can be found in the top 6 cm of former orchard soils. It is clear that digital spatial data handling and culturally-informed air photo interpretation has a place in soil contamination studies, land-use planning (with particular reference to re-development) and in administration of public health.  相似文献   
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Direct measurements of volume transports through Fram Strait   总被引:9,自引:1,他引:9  
Heat and freshwater transports through Fram Strait are understood to have a significant influence on the hydrographic conditions in the Arctic Ocean and on water mass modifications in the Nordic seas. To determine these transports and their variability reliable estimates of the volume transport through the strait are required. Current meter moorings were deployed in Fram Strait from September 1997 to September 1999 in the framework of the EU MAST III Variability of Exchanges in the Northern Seas programme. The monthly mean velocity fields reveal marked velocity variations over seasonal and annual time scales, and the spatial structure of the northward flowing West Spitsbergen Current and the southward East Greenland Current with a maximum in spring and a minimum in summer. The volume transport obtained by averaging the monthly means over two years amounts to 9.5 ± 1.4 Sv to the north and 11.1 ± 1.7 Sv to the south (1 Sv = 106 m3s−1). The West Spitsbergen Current has a strong barotropic and a weaker baroclinic component; in the East Greenland Current barotropic and baroclinic components are of similar magnitude. The net transport through the strait is 4.2 ± 2.3 Sv to the south. The obtained northward and southward transports are significantly larger than earlier estimates in the literature; however, within its range of uncertainty the balance obtained from a two year average is consistent with earlier estimates.  相似文献   
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Changing content of detrital input in laminated sediments traced by XRF scanning and microfacies analyses reflect prominent variations in sedimentation processes in the Aral Sea. A high-resolution record of titanium from a core retrieved in the northwestern Large Aral Sea allows a continuous reconstruction of wind strength and frequency in western Central Asia for the past 1500 yr. During AD 450–700, AD 1210–1265, AD 1350–1750 and AD 1800–1975, detrital inputs (bearing titanium) are high, documenting an enhanced early spring atmospheric circulation associated with an increase in intensity of the Siberian High pressure system over Central Asia. In contrast, lower titanium content during AD 1750–1800 and AD 1980–1985 reflects a diminished influence of the Siberian High during early spring with a reduced atmospheric circulation. A moderate circulation characterizes the time period AD 700–1150. Unprecedented weakened atmospheric circulation over western Central Asia are inferred during ca. AD 1180–1210 and AD 1265–1310 with a considerable decrease in dust storm frequency, sedimentation rates, lamination thickness and detrital inputs (screened at 40-μm resolution). Our results are concurrent with changes in the intensity of the Siberian High during the past 1400 yr as reported in the GISP2 Ice Core from Greenland.  相似文献   
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