Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians     

Agnieszka Wypych  Zbigniew Ustrnul  Dirk R. Schmatz 《山地科学学报》2018,15(2):237-253

Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years. Climate change is most evident in the foothills; however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians, which reach approximately 350 meters, on average, what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.  相似文献   

The analysis of beach profile changes using Dean's method and empirical orthogonal functions     

Zbigniew Pruszak 《Coastal Engineering》1993,19(3-4)

Sea bottom changes in the cross-shore direction have been analysed. The cross-shore profile, as a major factor of beach configuration, has been presented schematically as a superposition of a basic curve reflecting the mean layout and slope of the shore given by Dean's function and superimposed various bars, troughs, berms, etc. depicting local characteristic features of the profile.The local features of the profile have been analysed by use of one- (1-D) and two-dimensional (2-D) empirical orthogonal functions.On the basis of field observations and measurements the parameter A has been presented as a function of time. Three time scales have been distinguished (short, seasonal and long-term) with respect to which more or less regular changes of the parameter A occur. The modified parameter A was applied to two different field sites, namly Lubiatowo, Baltic Sea (Poland) and Gold Beach, Black Sea (Bulgaria). It has been found that in extreme cases the parameter A can vary in time by a factor of two, or more, for the same grain size distribution.  相似文献   

Cold anticyclonic eddies formed from cold pool water in the southern Middle Atlantic Bight     

Charles N. Flagg  Douglas Wallace  Zbigniew Kolber 《Continental Shelf Research》1997,17(15):1839-1867

AVHRR satellite imagery of the southern Mid-Atlantic Bight during May 1993 revealed a large area of cold water over the shelf break and slope that appeared to spin up into a series of southward propagating anticyclonic eddies. The eddies had diameters of 35–45 km at the surface and moved southward at about 20 cm/sec. A radial TOYO CTD (to 50m) and ADCP velocity (to 400m) transect was conducted across the southern-most of these eddies. The upper 50 meters had minimum temperatures of less than 7°C and salinities of about 33 pss, characteristics similar to cold pool waters usually found over the continental shelf. ADCP velocity data from one of the eddies revealed anticyclonic flow extending to a depth of about 250m. The transport of cold pool water by the eddies was estimated to be 0.1 to 0.2 Sv which is of the same order as the annual mean alongshore transport of shelf water in this region. The origin of the deeper water within the eddy is unlikely to be the continental shelf because the shelf break is less than 100 m. The depth and velocity profiles along the TOYO transect were consistent with the constant potential vorticity eddy model of Flierl (1979) although the source of the eddy kinetic energy is uncertain. The cause for the exodus of cold pool water from the shelf, which extended northward to at least 38°N, is unclear but must involve the establishment of an alongshore baroclinic pressure gradient against the usual southwestward shelf flow. It is possible that the intrusion of Gulf Stream waters onto the shelf near Cape Hatteras was a precursor of this off shelf transport. The southern-most eddy was marked by high biological productivity and very high oxygen supersaturation. The phytoplankton bloom detected within the exported cold pool water, located over the continental slope, suggests a mechanism whereby production fueled by nutrients derived from the shelf can be locally exported into deep water.  相似文献   

Large-Eddy Simulations of the Baroclinic Mixed Layer     

Zbigniew Sorbjan 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,112(1):57-80

The effects of baroclinicity, imposed on the dry mixed layer by the presenceof large-scale, horizontal temperature gradients, have been investigated basedon a large-eddy simulation model. The purpose of this investigation is to examinesimultaneous impacts of thermal stratification and shear in the atmospheric boundarylayer. For this purpose, five cases are considered – one barotropic, and four baroclinic.Based on the performed simulations, a new parametrization of the interfacial layer isproposed. The parameterization employs new interfacial scaling, which is valid at thetop of the mixed layer. In terms of new scales, dimensionless moments characterizingturbulence at the top of the shearless mixed layer are universal constants. In the shearedcase, dimensionless statistics of turbulence are shown to be functions of the interfacialRichardson number.  相似文献   

Abundance and Taxonomic Diversity of Bacteria Inhabiting the Sediment-Water Interface in a Marine Harbor Channel     

Perliński  Piotr  Mudryk  Zbigniew J.  Zdanowicz  Marta 《Ocean Science Journal》2019,54(3):407-418

Ocean Science Journal - The abundance of bacteria inhabiting the sediment-water interface and their taxonomic composition were determined with the fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) method...  相似文献   

Better air for better health: Forging synergies in policies for energy access,climate change and air pollution     

Shilpa Rao  Shonali Pachauri  Frank Dentener  Patrick Kinney  Zbigniew Klimont  Keywan Riahi  Wolfgang Schoepp 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1122-1130

Air pollution and its related health impacts are a global concern. This paper addresses how current policies on air pollution, climate change and access to clean cooking fuels can effectively reduce both outdoor and household air pollution and improve human health. A state of the art modeling framework is used that combines an integrated assessment model and an atmospheric model to estimate the spatial extent and distribution of outdoor air pollution exposures. Estimates of household energy access and use are modeled by accounting for heterogeneous household energy choices and affordability constraints for rural and urban populations spanning the entire income distribution. Results are presented for 2030 for a set of policy scenarios on air pollution, climate change and energy access and include spatially explicit emissions of air pollutants; ambient concentrations of PM2.5; and health impacts in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from both ambient and household air pollution. The results stress the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation in addressing the impacts of outdoor air pollution. A combination of stringent policies on outdoor air pollution, climate change and access to clean cooking fuels is found to be effective in achieving reductions in average ambient PM2.5 exposures to below World Health Organization recommended levels for a majority of the world's population and results in a significant decline in the global burden of disease from both outdoor and household air pollution.  相似文献   

Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  Shaochun Huang 《Acta Geophysica》2010,58(6):1115-1133

The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. “Cold” extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while “warm” extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.  相似文献   

Induced gravity anomalies and seismic energy as a basis for prediction of mining tremors     

Zbigniew Fajklewicz  Krzysztof Jakiel 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,129(3-4):535-552

The results of prediction of occurrence of mining tremors and bursts in the course of the exploitation of the remaining part of the hard coal in seam 510 of the mine Pstrowski, Upper Silesia, have been presented in the paper. The exploitation has taken place under extremely difficult conditions hazardous for the mining crew.To predict the occurrence of mining tremors, bursts and direction of migration of increased elastic strain in the rock mass, the microgravity method has been applied.The microgravity observations were carried out in the measurement points located at mutual distances equal 20 m in three profiles of the lengths 700 m, 760 m and 260 m respectively. The profiles were located in mining workings in the vicinity of the exploited part of the bed. In the course of exploitation, lasting 25 months, 29 series of measurements including 3600 individual microgravity observations were carried out. Microgravity observations were made with a Worden-Master gravimeter.The observed time changes of gravity microanomalies were essential for prediction. Local negative changes of gravity microanomalies signalled the approaching mining tremor. The tremor would cover an area of the radius 60 m to 100 m. The regional time changes of the gravity microanomalies appearing as linear trends of these anomalies signalled the development of the fields of elastic strain in the whole investigated area and the approaching violent release of elastic strain energy from the rock mass.The values of the amplitudes AMP of the above-mentioned trend were the measure of this hazard. In the course of the investigations each shock was preceded by considerably increased values of AMP.  相似文献   

A note on non-stationary stochastic response and strong motion duration     

Zbigniew Zembaty 《地震工程与结构动力学》1988,16(8):1189-1200

An analysis of the influence of strong motion duration on the response spectra is presented. The analysis is based on the concept of evolutionary power spectral density and first passage estimations for non-stationary random vibrations. To compare the response for different durations the criteria of constant Arias intensity and constant excitation level have been applied. The paper presents a numerical analysis of the effect of strong motion duration on various response statistics for a linear oscillator. Results indicate a decrease of peak response and first passage probability with increasing strong motion duration for constant Arias intensity.  相似文献   

Book reviews     

Kacper R. Rybicki  Brian J. Mitchell  Louise H. Kellogg  Andrea Borgia  Allan M. Rubin  Douglas R. Schmitt  Douglas R. Schmitt  Edo Nyland  Zbigniew Fajklewicz  David Stevenson  Janusz L. Borkowski 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,133(1):179-180

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