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Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
台风是我国东南沿海区域每年发生的严重自然灾害之一。本文分别采用传统的Monte-Carlo模拟方法以及较为先进的经验路径模拟方法预测中国东南沿海区域台风的极值风速(10 m高度处10 min平均值)，并对两种方法的预测结果进行了对比。本文将东南海岸线向内陆扩展约200 km的区域划分为0.25°×0.25°的网格，以每个网格点作为研究点。首先采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法产生每个研究点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。然后采用经验路径模型方法构建了西北太平洋1 000年的热带气旋事件集，采用模拟圆方法从中提取对各个研究站点有影响的台风事件。接着采用Yan Meng风场模型计算每个研究点台风的最大风速，构成极值风速序列。最后采用极值分布模型预测每个研究点不同重现期的极值风速，并对两种不同方法预测的结果进行了对比。研究发现在研究区域的内陆侧经验路径方法预测的风速略高于Monte-Carlo模拟方法预测的结果，而在海岸沿线一带经验路径方法预测的结果略低，这主要是由两种方法构造的虚拟台风的中心压强存在差异以及模型本身的不确定性造成的。本文的研究结果可以为防灾减灾系统提供有益的参考。 相似文献
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Using interpolation and averaging methods, we analyzed the sea surface wind data obtained from December 1992 to November 2008 by the scatterometers ERS-1, ERS-2, and QuikSCAT in the area of 2°N–39 °N, 105°E–130°E, and we reported the monthly mean distributions of the sea surface wind field. A vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method was employed to study the data and three temporal and spatial patterns were obtained. The first interannual VEOF accounts for 26% of the interannual variance and displays the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon. The second interannual VEOF accounts for 21% of the variance and reflects the response of China sea winds to El Nio events. The temporal mode of VEOF-2 is in good agreement with the curve of the Nio 3.4 index with a four-month lag. The spatial mode of VEOF-2 indicates that four months after an El Nio event, the southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can weaken the prevailing winds in winter, and can strengthen the prevailing winds in summer. The third interannual VEOF accounts for 10% of the variance and also reflects the influence of the ENSO events to China Sea winds. The temporal mode of VEOF-3 is similar to the curve of the Southern Oscillation Index. The spatial mode of VEOF-3 shows that the northeasterly anomalous winds over the South China Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea can weaken the prevailing winds, and southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern part of the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can strengthen the prevailing winds when El Nio occurs in winter. If El Nio happens in summer, the reverse is true. 相似文献
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祁连山青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)林土壤有机碳与化学性质的相互关系 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
通过对祁连山大野口流域的青海云杉林大样地进行土壤剖面取样, 分析了样地土壤有机碳与pH值、养分和阳离子交换量等基本化学性质的变化规律及其相互关系. 结果表明: 随土层深度不断增加, 土壤有机碳含量逐渐减小, 在20～30 cm以下趋于稳定(P > 0.05); 土壤pH值不断增大, 仅在0～10 cm与10～20 cm差异显著(P<0.05); 土壤全氮、速效氮、全磷和阳离子交换量不断减小, 全氮含量在30～40 cm以下趋于稳定(P > 0.05), 速效氮含量变化剧烈(P<0.05), 全磷含量差异性不显著(P > 0.05), 阳离子交换量与有机碳含量变化规律相同; 土壤速效磷、全钾和速效钾含量没有明显的变化规律, 速效磷和全钾含量差异性不显著(P > 0.05), 速效钾含量仅在0～10 cm与10～20 cm差异显著(P<0.05). 土壤有机碳与全氮、速效氮、全磷、速效磷、速效钾和阳离子交换量之间呈极显著和显著正相关, 与土壤pH值和全钾含量之间呈极显著和显著负相关. 土壤有机碳与其他基本化学性质的回归方程具有较高精度(R2=0.793), 影响土壤有机碳含量的主要化学因子依次为土壤阳离子交换量、速效钾和全磷含量. 相似文献
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基于物元模型的民勤绿洲土地生态安全评价 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
针对生态脆弱区民勤绿洲土地与生态环境系统的特点,运用“经济-环境-社会”模式和层次分析法构建了该区域土地生态安全评价的指标体系和权重,基于物元理论建立了土地生态安全的复合物元模型,对民勤绿洲土地生态安全进行了研究。结果表明:①2005-2007年民勤绿洲土地生态安全整体上呈现出“不安全-较不安全”的上升趋势,并有向更好等级发展的动向,说明近年民勤绿洲环境保护投入和治理绩效明显。②各单项指标存在明显的分异。人均水资源、化肥施用量、森林覆盖率、荒漠化程度、工业废水排放达标率、贫困人口比例和能耗成为制约该区域土地生态安全水平提升的重要因素,也反映了该区域土地生态系统环境容量低,极其脆弱。 相似文献
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对复杂山地介质的非均质性以及介质中地震波运动学特征进行深入研究,对于提高复杂山地区域地震勘探的效果有着重要的理论意义和实际价值.为了研究复杂山地非均质性和该介质中地震波的一些运动特性,提出了一种复杂山地随机介质的建模方法和一种新的射线追踪算法.与常规算法相比,复杂山地随机介质的生成方法采用更贴近实际介质特点的梯度介质作为背景介质,并在模型生成过程中加入地形修正步骤;新提出的GMM-ULTI射线追踪算法,充分融合群推进法、迎风思想、走时插值法的优势,采用先计算走时后追踪射线路径的两步策略完成射线追踪.算法分析与计算实例表明:复杂山地随机介质的生成方法能灵活、精细且更贴近实际地刻画复杂山地介质的非均质特点;新射线追踪算法兼顾精度和效率、能无条件稳定且灵活地适应复杂山地随机介质的特点;同时基于对几个模型试算结果的分析也得出了复杂山地随机介质中的地震波的一些传播规律. 相似文献
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Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution
models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing
the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using
Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period
is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical
mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only
changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but
also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution,
and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution
and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases.
The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37°27.6′ N, 122°15.1′ E), China, are used
to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different
spectral widths (ν=0.3−0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988)
distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that
the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions
do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory. 相似文献
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The wind system over the seas southeast of Asia (SSEA) plays an important role in China's climate variation. In this paper, ERS scatterometer winds covering the period from January 2000 to December 2000 and the area of 2-41 °N, 105- 130°E were analyzed with a distance-weighting interpolation method and the monthly mean distribution of the sea surface wind speed were given. The seasonal characteristics of winds in the SSEA were analyzed. Based on WAVEWATCH Ⅲ model, distribution of significant wave height was calculated. 相似文献