The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases. 相似文献
In the AASHTO Guide Specifications for Seismic Bridge Design Provisions,ductile diaphragms are identified as Permissible Earthquake-Resisting Elements(EREs),designed to help resist seismic loads applied in the transverse direction of bridges.When adding longitudinal ductile diaphragms,a bidirectional ductile diaphragm system is created that can address seismic excitations acting along both the bridge’s longitudinal and transverse axes.This paper investigates bidirectional ductile diaphragms with Buckling Restrained Braces(BRBs)in straight multi-span bridge with simply supported floating spans.The flexibility of the substructures in the transverse and longitudinal direction of the bridge is considered.Design procedures for the bidirectional ductile diaphragms are first proposed.An analytical model of the example bridge with bidirectional ductile diaphragms,designed based on the proposed methodology,is then built in SAP2000.Pushover and nonlinear time history analyses are performed on the bridge model,and corresponding results are presented.The effect of changing the longitudinal stiffness of the bidirectional ductile diaphragms in the end spans connecting to the abutment is also investigated,in order to better understand the impact on the bridge’s dynamic performance. 相似文献
Reconstructions of the timing and frequency of past eruptions are important to assess the propensity for future volcanic activity, yet in volcanic areas such as the East African Rift only piecemeal eruption histories exist. Understanding the volcanic history of scoria-cone fields, where eruptions are often infrequent and deposits strongly weathered, is particularly challenging. Here we reconstruct a history of volcanism from scoria cones situated along the eastern shoulders of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift, using a sequence of tephra (volcanic ash) layers preserved in the ~250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro. Seven visible and two non-visible (crypto-) tephra layers in the Lake Chala sequence are attributed to activity from the Mt Kilimanjaro (northern Tanzania) and the Chyulu Hills (southern Kenya) volcanic fields, on the basis of their glass chemistry, textural characteristics and known eruption chronology. The Lake Chala record of eruptions from scoria cones in the Chyulu Hills volcanic field confirms geological and historical evidence of its recent activity, and provides first-order age estimates for seven previously unknown eruptions. Long and well-resolved sedimentary records such as that of Lake Chala have significant potential for resolving regional eruption chronologies spanning hundreds of thousands of years. 相似文献
We investigated the inventory of presolar silicate, oxide, and silicon carbide (SiC) grains of fine‐grained chondrule rims in six Mighei‐type (CM) carbonaceous chondrites (Banten, Jbilet Winselwan, Maribo, Murchison, Murray and Yamato 791198), and the CM‐related carbonaceous chondrite Sutter's Mill. Sixteen O‐anomalous grains (nine silicates, six oxides) were detected, corresponding to a combined matrix‐normalized abundance of ~18 ppm, together with 21 presolar SiC grains (~42 ppm). Twelve of the O‐rich grains are enriched in 17O, and could originate from low‐mass asymptotic giant branch stars. One grain is enriched in 17O and significantly depleted in 18O, indicative of additional cool bottom processing or hot bottom burning in its stellar parent, and three grains are of likely core‐collapse supernova origin showing enhanced 18O/16O ratios relative to the solar system ratio. We find a presolar silicate/oxide ratio of 1.5, significantly lower than the ratios typically observed for chondritic meteorites. This may indicate a higher degree of aqueous alteration in the studied meteorites, or hint at a heterogeneous distribution of presolar silicates and oxides in the solar nebula. Nevertheless, the low O‐anomalous grain abundance is consistent with aqueous alteration occurring in the protosolar nebula and/or on the respective parent bodies. Six O‐rich presolar grains were studied by Auger Electron Spectroscopy, revealing two Fe‐rich silicates, one forsterite‐like Mg‐rich silicate, two Al‐oxides with spinel‐like compositions, and one Fe‐(Mg‐)oxide. Scanning electron and transmission electron microscopic investigation of a relatively large silicate grain (490 nm × 735 nm) revealed that it was crystalline åkermanite (Ca2Mg[Si2O7]) or a an åkermanite‐diopside (MgCaSi2O6) intergrowth. 相似文献
The 20 km2 Galabre catchment belongs to the French network of critical zone observatories (OZCAR; Gaillardet et al., Vadose Zone Journal, 2018, 17(1), 1–24). It is representative of the sedimentary lithology and meteorological forcing found in Mediterranean and mountainous areas. Due to the presence of highly erodible and sloping badlands on various lithologies, the site was instrumented in 2007 to understand the dynamics of suspended sediments (SS) in such areas. Two meteorological stations including measurements of air temperature, wind speed and direction, air moisture, rainfall intensity, raindrop size and velocity distribution were installed both in the upper and lower part of the catchment. At the catchment outlet, a gauging station records the water level, temperature and turbidity (10 min time-step). Stream water samples are collected automatically to estimate SS concentration-turbidity relationships, allowing quantification of SS fluxes with known uncertainty. The sediment samples are further characterized by measuring their particle size distributions and by applying a low-cost sediment fingerprinting approach using spectrocolorimetric tracers. Thus, the contributions of badlands located on different lithologies to total SS flux are quantified at a high temporal resolution, providing the opportunity to better analyse the links between meteorological forcing variability and watershed hydrosedimentary response. The set of measurements was extended to the dissolved phase in 2017. Both stream water electrical conductivity and major ion concentrations are measured each week and every 3 h during storm events. This extension of measurements to the dissolved phase will allow progress in understanding both the origin of the water during the events and the partitioning between particulate and dissolved fluxes of solutes in the critical zone. All data sets are available at https://doi.osug.fr/public/DRAIXBLEONE_GAL/index.html . 相似文献
This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO2e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO2e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.
Key policy insights
Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.
This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.
From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.
Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.
Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.
This work presents new 87Sr/86Sr and δ88/86SrSRM987 isotopic values of thirteen mineral, vegetal and animal reference materials. Except for UB‐N, all our results are consistent with previously published data. Our results highlight intermediate precisions among the best presently published and a non‐significant systematic shift with the calculated δ88/86SrSRM987 mean values for the three most analysed reference materials in the literature (i.e., IAPSO, BCR‐2 and JCp‐1). By comparison with the literature and between two distinct digestions, a significant bias of δ88/86SrSRM987 values was highlighted for two reference materials (UB‐N and GS‐N). It has also been shown that digestion protocols (nitric and multi‐acid) have a moderate impact on the δ88/86SrSRM987 isotopic values for the Jls‐1 reference materials suggesting that a nitric acid digestion of carbonate can be used without significant bias from partial digestion of non‐carbonate impurities. Different δ88/86SrSRM987 values were measured after two independent Sr/matrix separations, according to the same protocol, for a fat‐rich organic reference material (BCR‐380R) and have been related to a potential post‐digestion heterogeneity. Finally, the δ88/86SrSRM987 value differences measured between animal‐vegetal and between coral‐seawater reference materials agree with the previously published results, highlighting an Sr isotopic fractionation along the trophic chain and during carbonate precipitation. 相似文献
Playa Vista is a massive mixed-use development built on coastal wetlands in west Los Angeles. Its land use story illustrates how strategically constructed discourses shape contested urban spaces. Through an analysis of newspaper reporting and government documents, this paper traces how pro-Playa Vista interests changed their growth discourses rationalizing the development between 1979 and 2015. Findings suggest that pro-growth coalitions are resilient when they modify their discourses to negotiate new regulatory and political contexts, specifically pursuing sustainability fixes. They are not dogmatic in their adherence to orthodoxies of private property rights and “highest and best use” of land but rather continually reconstruct growth discourses incorporating enough of the values of their opponents (i.e. “green” values such as growth management and smart growth) that some environmental and homeowner citizens’ groups join the growth coalition, forming a “green growth machine” that not only profitably builds on the land but finances ecological restoration. 相似文献
Light curve modeling for the newly discovered super contact low-mass WUMa system 1SWASPJ092328.76+435044 was carried out by using a new BVR complete light curves. A spotted model was applied to treat the asymmetry of the light curves. The output model was obtained by means of Wilson–Devinney code, which reveals that the massive component is hotter than the less massive one with about ΔT ~ 40 K. A total of six new times of minima were estimated. The evolutionary state of the system components was investigated based on the estimated physical parameters. 相似文献
We analyzed mineral microinclusions in fibrous diamonds from the Wawa metaconglomerate (Superior craton) and Diavik kimberlites (Slave craton) and compared them with published compositions of large mineral inclusions in non-fibrous diamonds from these localities. The comparison, together with similar datasets available for Ekati and Koffiefontein kimberlites, suggest a general pattern of metasomatic alteration imposed on the ambient mantle by formation of fibrous diamond. Calcium and Fe enrichment of peridotitic garnet and pyroxenes and Fe enrichment of olivine associated with fibrous diamond-forming fluids contributes to refertilization of the cratonic mantle. Saline—carbonatitic—silicic fluid trapped by fibrous diamonds may represent one of the elusive agents of mantle refertilization. Calcium enrichment of peridotitic garnet and pyroxenes is expected in local mantle segments during fibrous diamond production, as Ca in the carbonatitic fluids is deposited into the surrounding mantle when oxidized carbon is reduced to diamond. Harzburgitic garnet evolves towards Ca-rich compositions even when it interacts with Ca-poor saline fluids. An unusual trend of Mg enrichment to Fo95–98 is observed in some olivine inclusions in Wawa fibrous diamonds. The trend may result from the carbonatitic composition of the fluid that promotes crystallization of magnesian olivine and preferentially oxidizes the fayalite component. We propose a generic model of fibrous and non-fibrous diamond formation from carbonatitic fluids that explains enrichment of the mantle in mafic magmaphile and incompatible elements and accounts for locally metasomatized compositions of diamond inclusions. 相似文献