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排序方式: 共有317条查询结果,搜索用时 17 毫秒
1.
Maria Di Rosa Chiara Frassi Michele Marroni Francesca Meneghini Luca Pandolfi 《地学学报》2020,32(1):34-43
Despite the important role played by the Sardinia‐Corsica block in the reconstruction of the Western Mediterranean geodynamics, the extent of involvement of the “Autochthonous” European margin exposed in Corsica (France) (i.e., Hercynian Corsica) in the Alpine orogeny remains uncertain. Stratigraphic and sedimentological studies in the post‐Variscan deposits on the Hercynian Corsica are scarce and even scarcer are the structural and metamorphic constraints. To face these uncertainties, we present new stratigraphic, structural and metamorphic data from the area of Razzo Bianco, Central Corsica, where a complete sequence belonging to the European continental margin is exposed. Field and structural investigations demonstrate that the sequence represents the easternmost edge of the downgoing European plate. Metamorphic studies on the Eocene deposits indicate that the margin was buried at depth up to blueschist facies conditions and, subsequently, it was progressively exhumed mainly through the activation of oblique top‐to‐the NW shear zones. 相似文献
2.
Jalal Samia Arnaud Temme Arnold K. Bregt Jakob Wallinga John Stuiver Fausto Guzzetti Francesca Ardizzone Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2129-2144
Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling. 相似文献
3.
Better understanding of which processes generate floods in a catchment can improve flood frequency analysis and potentially climate change impacts assessment. However, current flood classification methods are either not transferable across locations or do not provide event-based information. We therefore developed a location-independent, event-based flood classification methodology that is applicable in different climates and returns a classification of all flood events, including extreme ones. We use precipitation time series and very simply modelled soil moisture and snowmelt as inputs for a decision tree. A total of 113,635 events in 4155 catchments worldwide were classified into one of five hydro-climatological flood generating processes: short rain, long rain, excess rainfall, snowmelt and a combination of rain and snow. The new classification was tested for its robustness and evaluated with available information; these two tests are often lacking in current flood classification approaches. According to the evaluation, the classification is mostly successful and indicates excess rainfall as the most common dominant process. However, the dominant process is not very informative in most catchments, as there is a high at-site variability in flood generating processes. This is particularly relevant for the estimation of extreme floods which diverge from their usual flood generation pattern, especially in the United Kingdom, Northern France, Southeastern United States, and India. 相似文献
4.
Acta Geochimica - To quantify water erosion rates and annual soil loss in mountainous areas, two different empirical models were used to estimate the effects of soil erosion in a small mountain... 相似文献
5.
Flavia Burger Alvaro Ayala David Farias Thomas E. Shaw Shelley MacDonell Ben Brock James McPhee Francesca Pellicciotti 《水文研究》2019,33(2):214-229
We present a field‐data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high‐elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris‐covered and debris‐free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio‐hydrological model TOPKAPI‐ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris‐covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local‐scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years. 相似文献
6.
Filippo Giorgi Erika Coppola Francesca Raffaele Gulilat Tefera Diro Ramon Fuentes-Franco Graziano Giuliani Ashu Mamgain Marta Pereira Llopart Laura Mariotti Csaba Torma 《Climatic change》2014,125(1):39-51
We analyze changes of four extreme hydroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 projections of the Phase I CREMA experiment, which includes 21st century projections over 5 CORDEX domains (Africa, Central America, South America, South Asia, Mediterranean) with the ICTP regional model RegCM4 driven by three CMIP5 global models. The indices are: Heat Wave Day Index (HWD), Maximum Consecutive Dry Day index (CDD), fraction of precipitation above the 95th intensity percentile (R95) and Hydroclimatic Intensity index (HY-INT). Comparison with coarse (GPCP) and high (TRMM) resolution daily precipitation data for the present day conditions shows that the precipitation intensity distributions from the GCMs are close to the GPCP data, while the RegCM4 ones are closer to TRMM, illustrating the added value of the increased resolution of the regional model. All global and regional model simulations project predominant increases in HWD, CDD, R95 and HY-INT, implying a regime shift towards more intense, less frequent rain events and increasing risk of heat wave, drought and flood with global warming. However, the magnitudes of the changes are generally larger in the global than the regional models, likely because of the relatively low “climate sensitivity” of the RegCM4, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. In addition, pronounced regional differences in the change signals are found. The data from these simulations are available for use in impact assessment studies. 相似文献
7.
Andrea Penna Paolo Morandi Maria Rota Carlo Filippo Manzini Francesca da Porto Guido Magenes 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2255-2273
The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones. 相似文献
8.
9.
Size‐frequency distributions can support reliable inferences concerning population dynamics of brachiopods, but only a few data are available so far. In this study, length and width frequency distributions of dead specimens of the Recent brachiopods Joania cordata and Argyrotheca cuneata from the Marine Protected Area ‘Secche di Tor Paterno’, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy (41°35′ N, 12°20′ E), are reported in order to add new data about size‐frequency distributions of brachiopods. The studied specimens came from death assemblages in the coralligenous substrate, in the Posidonia oceanica meadows, and in the sand channels. The observed patterns vary from left‐skewed (J. cordata) to right‐skewed (A. cuneata), indicating respectively a low and high mortality of smaller individuals. Significant differences between the coralligenous substrate and the P. oceanica meadow were observed for both species, revealing a variation among different habitats. All length and width distributions are clearly polymodal, but the biological meaning of the peaks is difficult to interpret, as the two species seem to have a 2‐year life span. A biometric analysis of shell sizes revealed that length and width are the most variable parameters during the growth of the animal. 相似文献
10.
Gianluca?MastrantonioEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Alessio?Pollice Francesca?Fedele 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(1):169-181
Winds from the North–West quadrant and lack of precipitation are known to lead to an increase of PM10 concentrations over a residential neighborhood in the city of Taranto (Italy). In 2012 the local government prescribed a reduction of industrial emissions by 10% every time such meteorological conditions are forecasted 72 h in advance. Wind forecasting is addressed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric simulation system by the Regional Environmental Protection Agency. In the context of distributions-oriented forecast verification, we propose a comprehensive model-based inferential approach to investigate the ability of the WRF system to forecast the local wind speed and direction allowing different performances for unknown weather regimes. Ground-observed and WRF-forecasted wind speed and direction at a relevant location are jointly modeled as a 4-dimensional time series with an unknown finite number of states characterized by homogeneous distributional behavior. The proposed model relies on a mixture of joint projected and skew normal distributions with time-dependent states, where the temporal evolution of the state membership follows a first order Markov process. Parameter estimates, including the number of states, are obtained by a Bayesian MCMC-based method. Results provide useful insights on the performance of WRF forecasts in relation to different combinations of wind speed and direction. 相似文献