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1.
Ignazio Giuntoli Gabriele Villarini Christel Prudhomme David M. Hannah 《Climatic change》2018,150(3-4):149-162
Projections of runoff from global multi-model ensembles provide a valuable basis for the estimation of future hydrological extremes. However, projections suffer from uncertainty that originates from different error sources along the modeling chain. Hydrological impact studies have generally partitioned these error sources into global impact and global climate model (GIM and GCM, respectively) uncertainties, neglecting other sources, including scenarios and internal variability. Using a set of GIMs driven by GCMs under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), this study aims to partition the uncertainty of future flows coming from GIMs, GCMs, RCPs, and internal variability over the CONterminous United States (CONUS). We focus on annual maximum, median, and minimum runoff, analyzed decadally over the twenty-first century. Results indicate that GCMs and GIMs are responsible for the largest fraction of uncertainty over most of the study area, followed by internal variability and to a smaller extent RCPs. To investigate the influence of the ensemble setup on uncertainty, in addition to the full ensemble, three ensemble configurations are studied using fewer GIMs (excluding least credible GIMs in runoff representation and GIMs accounting for vegetation and CO2 dynamics), and excluding intermediate RCPs. Overall, the use of fewer GIMs has a minor impact on uncertainty for low and medium flows, but a substantial impact for high flows. Regardless of the number of pathways considered, RCPs always play a very small role, suggesting that improvement of GCMs and GIMs and more informed ensemble selections can yield a reduction of projected uncertainties. 相似文献
2.
Christophe Martin Gabriele Ameri David Baumont David Carbon Gloria Senfaute Jean-Michel Thiry Ezio Faccioli Jean Savy 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2477-2511
The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods. 相似文献
3.
A multiscale strategy is evaluated at a structural level for the analysis of unreinforced masonry structures. The mechanical characterization of the masonry is deduced from homogenization-based micro-scale finite element (FE) models. The derived data are here employed at a structural level via a discrete FE model. The discrete FE model is composed of quadrilateral rigid plates interconnected through vertical and horizontal interfaces. On the interfaces, between adjoining discrete elements, a model that accounts for the in- and out-of-plane behavior of masonry, with damage and plasticity, is adopted. Such interfaces represent the material pre- and post-peak regimes, its orthotropy, and, depending on the micro-model assumed, account by three-dimensional shear effects that are especially important for multi-leaf walls and complex regular textures. The discrete model has been implemented in an advanced structural analysis software where powerful built-in features as the arc-length method, line-search algorithm, and implicit or explicit solver schemes are available. The multi-scale model is applied for the dynamic study of a small English-bond masonry house prototype subjected to a series of consecutive earthquake records. Detailed comparisons between the experimental and numerical data are presented, including the results obtained through a continuous total strain rotating crack model. Quasi-static and dynamic analyses are conducted. Results demonstrate that when enough experimental information is available on the masonry components under tension, shear, and compression regimes, the approach predicts well the seismic structural response in terms of time-history displacements, seismic capacity, and damage patterns. The required computational cost (CPU time) is very attractive. 相似文献
4.
Tao Chen Christoph Clauser Gabriele Marquart Karen Willbrand Thomas Hiller 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(6):1903-1916
Upscaling permeability of grid blocks is crucial for groundwater models. A novel upscaling method for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks is presented. The objective of the study was to compare this method with the commonly used Oda upscaling method and the volume averaging method. First, the multiple boundary method and its computational framework were defined for three-dimensional stochastic fracture networks. Then, the different upscaling methods were compared for a set of rotated fractures, for tortuous fractures, and for two discrete fracture networks. The results computed by the multiple boundary method are comparable with those of the other two methods and fit best the analytical solution for a set of rotated fractures. The errors in flow rate of the equivalent fracture model decrease when using the multiple boundary method. Furthermore, the errors of the equivalent fracture models increase from well-connected fracture networks to poorly connected ones. Finally, the diagonal components of the equivalent permeability tensors tend to follow a normal or log-normal distribution for the well-connected fracture network model with infinite fracture size. By contrast, they exhibit a power-law distribution for the poorly connected fracture network with multiple scale fractures. The study demonstrates the accuracy and the flexibility of the multiple boundary upscaling concept. This makes it attractive for being incorporated into any existing flow-based upscaling procedures, which helps in reducing the uncertainty of groundwater models. 相似文献
5.
Gabriele Pichierri Alessandro Morbidelli Aurélien Crida 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2018,130(8):54
Massive planets form within the lifetime of protoplanetary disks, and therefore, they are subject to orbital migration due to planet–disk interactions. When the first planet reaches the inner edge of the disk, its migration stops and consequently the second planet ends up locked in resonance with the first one. We detail how the resonant trapping works comparing semi-analytical formulae and numerical simulations. We restrict to the case of two equal-mass coplanar planets trapped in first-order resonances, but the method can be easily generalized. We first describe the family of resonant stable equilibrium points (zero-amplitude libration orbits) using series expansions up to different orders in eccentricity as well as a non-expanded Hamiltonian. Then we show that during convergent migration the planets evolve along these families of equilibrium points. Eccentricity damping from the disk leads to a final equilibrium configuration that we predict precisely analytically. The fact that observed multi-exoplanetary systems are rarely seen in resonances suggests that in most cases the resonant configurations achieved by migration become unstable after the removal of the protoplanetary disk. Here we probe the stability of the resonances as a function of planetary mass. For this purpose, we fictitiously increase the masses of resonant planets, adiabatically maintaining the low-amplitude libration regime until instability occurs. We discuss two hypotheses for the instability, that of a low-order secondary resonance of the libration frequency with a fast synodic frequency of the system, and that of minimal approach distance between planets. We show that secondary resonances do not seem to impact resonant systems at low amplitude of libration. Resonant systems are more stable than non-resonant ones for a given minimal distance at close encounters, but we show that the latter nevertheless play the decisive role in the destabilization of resonant pairs. We show evidence that as the planetary mass increases and the minimal distance between planets gets smaller in terms of mutual Hill radius, the region of stability around the resonance center shrinks, until the equilibrium point itself becomes unstable. 相似文献
6.
Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet. 相似文献
7.
Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska. 相似文献
8.
Climatic Change - The assessment of ecological impacts of pumped-storage (PS) hydropower plants on the two connected water bodies is usually based on present climatic conditions. However,... 相似文献
9.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Gridded daily precipitation observations over the contiguous USA are used to investigate the past observed changes in the frequency and magnitude of heavy... 相似文献
10.
Francesco Di Benedetto Daniele Borrini Andrea Caneschi Gabriele Fornaciai Massimo Innocenti Alessandro Lavacchi Carlo Andrea Massa Giordano Montegrossi Werner Oberhauser Luca A. Pardi Maurizio Romanelli 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2011,38(6):483-490
An extensive characterisation of the magnetic properties of synthetic powders of kuramite, with formal composition Cu3SnS4, was performed. Powders were investigated through superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) magnetometry, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD), scanning and transmission electron microscopies (SEM and TEM) and microanalysis. SEM and TEM reveal the presence of nanodimensioned particles. XRPD clearly shows that Cu3SnS4 crystallised in a cubic sphalerite-type structural model, in spite of the stannite-type tetragonal structure described for the natural phase. This difference arises from a full random distribution of cations. Synthetic kuramite nanopowders exhibit a marked paramagnetism, originated by the presence of Cu(II), definitely assessed by EPR measurements. Moreover, the overall magnetic behaviour of the sample cannot be simply ascribed to diluted paramagnetism, and this suggests the presence of strong superexchange interactions among Cu(II) ions even at room temperature. The main consequences of these results are the definitive assessment of the chemical formula Cu(I)2Cu(II)SnS4 and of a random distribution of Cu(II), Cu(I) and Sn(IV) ions within the available tetrahedral sites. 相似文献