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Targeting the methane hydrate (MH) bearing units C and D at the Mount Elbert prospect on the Alaska North Slope, four MDT (Modular Dynamic Formation Tester) tests were conducted in February 2007. The C2 MDT test was selected for history matching simulation in the MH Simulator Code Comparison Study. Through history matching simulation, the physical and chemical properties of the unit C were adjusted, which suggested the most likely reservoir properties of this unit. Based on these properties thus tuned, the numerical models replicating “Mount Elbert C2 zone like reservoir”, “PBU L-Pad like reservoir” and “PBU L-Pad down dip like reservoir” were constructed. The long term production performances of wells in these reservoirs were then forecasted assuming the MH dissociation and production by the methods of depressurization, combination of depressurization and wellbore heating, and hot water huff and puff. The predicted cumulative gas production ranges from 2.16 × 106 m3/well to 8.22 × 108 m3/well depending mainly on the initial temperature of the reservoir and on the production method.This paper describes the details of modeling and history matching simulation. This paper also presents the results of the examinations on the effects of reservoir properties on MH dissociation and production performances under the application of the depressurization and thermal methods.  相似文献   
3.
The bootstrap method is used to determine errors of basic attributes of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) visually identified in images obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission’s Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instruments. The basic parameters of CMEs are stored, among others, in a database known as the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog and are widely employed for many research studies. The basic attributes of CMEs (e.g. velocity and acceleration) are obtained from manually generated height-time plots. The subjective nature of manual measurements introduces random errors that are difficult to quantify. In many studies the impact of such measurement errors is overlooked. In this study we present a new possibility to estimate measurements errors in the basic attributes of CMEs. This approach is a computer-intensive method because it requires repeating the original data analysis procedure several times using replicate datasets. This is also commonly called the bootstrap method in the literature. We show that the bootstrap approach can be used to estimate the errors of the basic attributes of CMEs having moderately large numbers of height-time measurements. The velocity errors are in the vast majority small and depend mostly on the number of height-time points measured for a particular event. In the case of acceleration, the errors are significant, and for more than half of all CMEs, they are larger than the acceleration itself.  相似文献   
4.
Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth’s vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (Solar Phys. 237, 101, 2006) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width, and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for space weather forecasting. Our study finds that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs to Earth’s vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.  相似文献   
5.
We report on the coronal hole (CH) influence on the 54 magnetic cloud (MC) and non-MC associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) selected for studies during the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshops (CDAWs) focusing on the question if all CMEs are flux ropes. All selected CMEs originated from source regions located between longitudes 15E?–?15W. Xie, Gopalswamy, and St. Cyr (2013, Solar Phys., doi: 10.1007/s11207-012-0209-0 ) found that these MC and non-MC associated CMEs are on average deflected towards and away from the Sun–Earth line, respectively. We used a CH influence parameter (CHIP) that depends on the CH area, average magnetic field strength, and distance from the CME source region to describe the influence of all on-disk CHs on the erupting CME. We found that for CHIP values larger than 2.6 G the MC and non-MC events separate into two distinct groups where MCs (non-MCs) are deflected towards (away) from the disk center. Division into two groups was also observed when the distance to the nearest CH was less than 3.2×105 km. At CHIP values less than 2.6 G or at distances of the nearest CH larger than 3.2×105 km the deflection distributions of the MC and non-MCs started to overlap, indicating diminishing CH influence. These results give support to the idea that all CMEs are flux ropes, but those observed to be non-MCs at 1 AU could be deflected away from the Sun–Earth line by nearby CHs, making their flux rope structure unobservable at 1 AU.  相似文献   
6.
We investigated a set of 54 interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) events whose solar sources are very close to the disk center (within ±?15° from the central meridian). The ICMEs consisted of 23 magnetic-cloud (MC) events and 31 non-MC events. Our analyses suggest that the MC and non-MC ICMEs have more or less the same eruption characteristics at the Sun in terms of soft X-ray flares and CMEs. Both types have significant enhancements in ion charge states, although the non-MC structures have slightly lower levels of enhancement. The overall duration of charge-state enhancement is also considerably smaller than that in MCs as derived from solar wind plasma and magnetic signatures. We find very good correlation between the Fe and O charge-state measurements and the flare properties such as soft X-ray flare intensity and flare temperature for both MCs and non-MCs. These observations suggest that both MC and non-MC ICMEs are likely to have a flux-rope structure and the unfavorable observational geometry may be responsible for the appearance of non-MC structures at 1 AU. We do not find any evidence for an active region expansion resulting in ICMEs lacking a flux-rope structure because the mechanism of producing high charge states and the flux-rope structure at the Sun is the same for MC and non-MC events.  相似文献   
7.
A new scheme has been devised to calculate discrete unstable global shearing spiral modes of gaseous disk models of galaxies. The scheme makes use of the Legendre expansion of eigen functions and the problem of stability analysis is reduced to an eigenvalue problem of an infinite matrix. The spiral patterns of these shearing wave solutions of linearized equations change their form in the course of time due to the differential rotation of the equilibrium disk. These shearing wave solutions are presumed to have intermediate characteristics between so-called density-waves and material arms. Comparison between these shearing modes and the non-shearing normal modes for a series of disk models is presented.  相似文献   
8.
Two soil CO2 efflux surveys were carried out in September 1999 and June 2002 to study the spatial distribution of diffuse CO2 degassing and estimate the total CO2 output from Showa-Shinzan volcanic dome, Japan. Seventy-six and 81 measurements of CO2 efflux were performed in 1999 and 2002, respectively, covering most of Showa-Shinzan volcano. Soil CO2 efflux data showed a wide range of values up to 552 g m-2 d-1. Carbon isotope signatures of the soil CO2 ranged from -0.9‰ to -30.9‰, suggesting a mixing between different carbon reservoirs. Most of the study area showed CO2 efflux background values during the 1999 and 2002 surveys (B = 8.2 and 4.4 g m-2 d-1, respectively). The spatial distribution of CO2 efflux anomalies for both surveys showed a good correlation with the soil temperature, indicating a similar origin for the extensive soil degassing generated by condensation processes and fluids discharged by the fumarolic system of Showa-Shinzan. The total diffuse CO2 output of Showa-Shinzan was estimated to be about 14.0–15.6 t d-1 of CO2 for an area of 0.53 km2.  相似文献   
9.
We have developed a two-dimensional dynamical model of asymmetric subduction integrated into the mantle convection without imposed plate velocities. In this model we consider that weak oceanic crust behaves as a lubricator on the thrust fault at the plate boundary. We introduce a rheological layer that depends on the history of the past fracture to simulate the effect of the oceanic crust. The thickness of this layer is set to be as thin as the Earth's oceanic crust. To treat 1-kilometer scale structure at the plate boundary in the 1000-kilometer scale mantle convection calculation, we introduce a new numerical method to solve the hydrodynamic equations using a couple of uniform and nonuniform grids of control volumes. Using our developed models, we have systematically investigated effects of basic rheological parameters that determine the deformation strength of the lithosphere and the oceanic crust on the development of the subducted slab, with a focus on the plate motion controlling mechanism. In our model the plate subduction is produced when the friction coefficient (0.004–0.008) of the modeled oceanic crust and the maximum strength (400 MPa) of the lithosphere are in plausible range inferred from the observations on the plate driving forces and the plate deformation, and the rheology experiments. In this range of the plate strength, yielding induces the plate bending. In this case the speed of plate motion is controlled more by viscosity layering of the underlying mantle than by the plate strength. To examine the setting of the overriding plate, we also consider the two end-member cases in which the overriding plate is fixed or freely-movable. In the case of the freely-movable overriding plate, the trench motion considerably changes the dip angle of the deep slab. Especially in the case with a shallow-angle plate boundary, retrograde slab motion occurs to generate a shallow-angle deep slab.  相似文献   
10.
We have constructed a large, mosaic CCD camera called MOA-cam2 which has 4096 × 6144-pixelsto search for gravitational microlensing events. MOA-cam2 has three4096 × 2048-pixel SITe CCD chips, which have a very high quantum efficiency (nearly 80% in the wave region 500 to 800 nm),and three buttable sides. We have placed the threechips side by side with 100 m dead space. MOA-cam2 has been installed on the 61 cm Boller and Chivens telescope of the MOA collaboration at the Mt. John University Observatory (MJUO) in NewZealand since July 1998. The field coverage is 0.92° × 1.38° per exposure. The technical details of MOA-cam2 and the first images obtained with the Boller and Chivens telescope are presented. MOA-cam2 introduces a second phase of research on gravitational microlensing by the MOA collaboration.  相似文献   
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