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Nguyen Thi Thanh Binh Tomochika TokunagaNeil R. Goulty Hoang Phuoc SonMai Van Binh 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2011,28(5):973-979
The results presented in this paper are the first published estimates of the complete stress tensor in the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son basins, offshore Vietnam. We analysed in situ stress and pore pressure fields in the sedimentary formations using data from petroleum exploration and production wells to evaluate the stress state in these basins. The data were obtained from the seafloor to 4300 m burial depth and include both hydrostatic and overpressured sections. Minimum horizontal stresses were obtained from extended leak-off tests and mini-fracture tests. Maximum horizontal stresses were estimated from drilling-induced fracture parameters and borehole breakout widths in twelve wells using rock properties measured in the laboratory or estimated empirically from wireline logs. Seven data points are located in sediments, and seventeen data points in igneous basement rocks at depths greater than 3000 m.The estimated magnitudes of σH are 70-110% of the σv magnitudes. Considering the errors in the stress magnitude estimates, their relative magnitudes suggest that a borderline normal/strike-slip stress regime presently exists in normally pressured sequences of the Nam Con Son and Cuu Long basins. Of the twenty-four data points, twenty have effective stress ratios at a critical stress state for faulting on the assumption that there are faults present that are optimally oriented for failure with friction coefficients of ∼0.5. The results suggest that the stress state in these basins is generally critical. 相似文献
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Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Flood forecasting in large rivers with data-driven models 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Results from the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast water levels at 3 stations along the mainstream of the Lower Mekong River are reported in this paper. The study investigated the effects of including water levels from upstream stations and tributaries, and rainfall as inputs to ANFIS models developed for the 3 stations. When upstream water levels in the mainstream were used as input, improvements to forecasts were realized only when the water levels from 1 or at most 2 upstream stations were included. This is because when there are significant contributions of flow from the tributaries, the correlation between the water levels in the upstream stations and stations of interest decreases, limiting the effectiveness of including water levels from upstream stations as inputs. In addition, only improvements at short lead times were achieved. Including the water level from the tributaries did not significantly improve forecast results. This is attributed mainly to the fact that the flow contributions represented by the tributaries may not be significant enough, given that there could be large volume of flow discharging directly from the catchments which are ungauged, into the mainstream. The largest improvement for 1-day forecasts was obtained for Kratie station where lateral flow contribution was 17 %, the highest for the 3 stations considered. The inclusion of rainfall as input resulted in significant improvements to long-term forecasts. For Thakhek, where rainfall is most significant, the persistence index and coefficient of efficiency for 5-lead-day forecasts improved from 0.17 to 0.44 and 0.89 to 0.93, respectively, whereas the root mean square error decreased from 0.83 to 0.69 m. 相似文献
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Abstract Small ice crystals with average diameter of about 30 μm are produced in a large cold room and allowed to fall in a settling chamber in the presence of a quasi‐uniform electric field. Aggregates (flakes) of ice crystals are collected by permanent replicas. Results show that an electric field above a threshold value of about 4 × 104 V m‐1 rapidly increases the growth of flakes by the capture of small ice crystals. The influence of the electric field upon the growth of ice aggregates is maximum at a field strength of about 1.5 × 105 V m‐1. Comparison of the results with Jiusto's mathematical model of the growth rate gives values of the collection efficiency at different field strengths. It is very likely that the electric field increases the adhesion (aggregation) efficiency rather than the collision (cross‐section) efficiency. 相似文献
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Present-day stress and pore pressure fields in the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son Basins, offshore Vietnam 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Nguyen Thi Thanh Binh Tomochika Tokunaga Hoang Phuoc Son Mai Van Binh 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2007,24(10):607-615
Knowledge of the in situ, or contemporary stress field is vital for planning optimum orientations of deviated and horizontal wells, reservoir characterization and a better understanding of geodynamic processes and their effects on basin evolution.This study provides the first documented analysis of in situ stress and pore pressure fields in the sedimentary formations of the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son Basins, offshore Vietnam, based on data from petroleum exploration and production wells.In the Cuu Long Basin, the maximum horizontal stress is mainly oriented in NNW–SSE to N–S in the northern part and central high. In the Nam Con Son Basin, the maximum horizontal stress is mainly oriented in NE–SW in the northern part and to N–S in the central part of the basin.The magnitude of the vertical stress has a gradient of approximately 22.2 MPa/km at 3500 m depth. Minimum horizontal stress magnitude is approximately 61% of the vertical stress magnitude in normally pressured sequences.The effect of pore pressure change on horizontal stress magnitudes was estimated from pore pressure and fracture tests data in depleted zone caused by fluid production, and an average pore pressure–stress coupling ratio (ΔSh/ΔPp) obtained was 0.66. The minimum horizontal stress magnitude approaches the vertical stress magnitude in overpressured zones of the Nam Con Son Basin, suggesting that an isotropic or strike-slip faulting stress regime may exist in the deeper overpressured sequences. 相似文献
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