Assessment of shallow landslide risk mitigation measures based on land use planning through probabilistic modelling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jorge Pedro Galve  Andrea Cevasco  Pierluigi Brandolini  Mauro Soldati 《Landslides》2015,12(1):101-114

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Statistical identification of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall          下载免费PDF全文

Pierluigi Furcolo  Anna Pelosi  Fabio Rossi 《水文研究》2016,30(9):1342-1353

Regional models of extreme rainfall must address the spatial variability induced by orographic obstacles. However, the proper detection of orographic effects often depends on the availability of a well‐designed rain gauge network. The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for identifying and characterizing the effects of orography on the spatial structure of extreme rainfall at the regional scale, including where rainfall data are lacking or fail to describe rainfall features thoroughly. We analyse the annual maxima of daily rainfall data in the Campania region, an orographically complex region in Southern Italy, and introduce a statistical procedure to identify spatial outliers in a low order statistic (namely the mean). The locations of these outliers are then compared with a pattern of orographic objects that has been a priori identified through the application of an automatic geomorphological procedure. The results show a direct and clear link between a particular set of orographic objects and a local increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall. This analysis allowed us to objectively identify areas where orography produces enhanced variability in extreme rainfall. It has direct implications for rain gauge network design criteria and has led to promising developments in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Recovering the initial conditions of our local Universe from NOG and PSCz catalogues     

Fabio Fontanot  Pierluigi Monaco  Stefano Borgani 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(2):692-706

We apply the ztrace algorithm to the optical NOG and infrared PSC z galaxy catalogues to reconstruct the pattern of primordial fluctuations that have generated our local Universe. We check that the density fields traced by the two catalogues are well correlated, and consistent with a linear relation [either in δ or in  log (1 +δ)  ] with relative bias (of NOG with respect to PSC z )   b _rel= 1.1 ± 0.1  . The relative bias relation is used to fill the optical zone of avoidance at  | b | < 20°  using the PSC z galaxy density field.
We perform extensive testing on simulated galaxy catalogues to optimize the reconstruction. The quality of the reconstruction is predicted to be good at large scales, up to a limiting wavenumber   k _lim≃ 0.4 h Mpc⁻¹  beyond which all information is lost. We find that the improvement arising from the denser sampling of the optical catalogue is compensated by the uncertainties connected to the larger zone of avoidance.
The initial conditions reconstructed from the NOG catalogue are found (analogously to those from the PSC z ) to be consistent with a Gaussian paradigm. We use the reconstructions to produce sets of initial conditions ready to be used for constrained simulations of our local Universe.  相似文献   

A 3D hydrodynamic fate and transport model for herbicides in Sacca di Goro coastal lagoon (Northern Adriatic)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Carafa R  Marinov D  Dueri S  Wollgast J  Ligthart J  Canuti E  Viaroli P  Zaldívar JM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(10):1231-1248

Sacca di Goro is a shallow coastal microtidal lagoon with a surface area of 26 km2, and an average depth of about 1.5m. Fresh water pollutant loads from Po River branches and several drainage canals lead to anthropogenic eutrophication, frequent summer anoxia crises and chemical contamination. Such events not only affect the lagoon ecosystem but also cause serious economic losses, the lagoon being the second largest producer of clams in Italy. The present work aims at using a fate model coupled with COHERENS 3D hydrodynamic model to simulate and to explain the spatial distribution and temporal variations of s-triazines herbicides in the Sacca di Goro lagoon. The simulation results of spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of atrazine, simazine and terbuthylazine have been compared with experimental data obtained during an annual monitoring programme.  相似文献   

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation over Greenland     

Filip Lefebre  Xavier Fettweis  Hubert Gallée  Jean-Pascal Van Ypersele  Philippe Marbaix  Wouter Greuell  Pierluigi Calanca 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(1):99-116

A simulation of the 1991 summer has been performed over south Greenland with a coupled atmosphere–snow regional climate model (RCM) forced by the ECMWF re-analysis. The simulation is evaluated with in-situ coastal and ice-sheet atmospheric and glaciological observations. Modelled air temperature, specific humidity, wind speed and radiative fluxes are in good agreement with the available observations, although uncertainties in the radiative transfer scheme need further investigation to improve the model’s performance. In the sub-surface snow-ice model, surface albedo is calculated from the simulated snow grain shape and size, snow depth, meltwater accumulation, cloudiness and ice albedo. The use of snow metamorphism processes allows a realistic modelling of the temporal variations in the surface albedo during both melting periods and accumulation events. Concerning the surface albedo, the main finding is that an accurate albedo simulation during the melting season strongly depends on a proper initialization of the surface conditions which mainly result from winter accumulation processes. Furthermore, in a sensitivity experiment with a constant 0.8 albedo over the whole ice sheet, the average amount of melt decreased by more than 60%, which highlights the importance of a correctly simulated surface albedo. The use of this coupled atmosphere–snow RCM offers new perspectives in the study of the Greenland surface mass balance due to the represented feedback between the surface climate and the surface albedo, which is the most sensitive parameter in energy-balance-based ablation calculations.  相似文献   

Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval     

Federico Murrone  Fabio Rossi  Pierluigi Claps 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):483-510

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.  相似文献   

Net autotrophy in a fluvial lake: the relative role of phytoplankton and floating-leaved macrophytes     

Monica Pinardi  Marco Bartoli  Daniele Longhi  Pierluigi Viaroli 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2011,73(3):389-403

This study combined water- and sediment flux measurements with mass balances of dissolved gas and inorganic matter to determine the importance of pelagic and benthic processes for whole-system metabolism in a eutrophic fluvial lake. Mass balances of dissolved O₂, inorganic carbon (DIC), nitrogen (DIN), phosphorous (SRP), particulate N (PN) and P (PP) and Chl a were calculated at a nearly monthly frequency by means of repeated sampling at the lake inlet and outlet. Simultaneously, benthic fluxes of gas and nutrients, including denitrification rates, and the biomass of the dominant pleustophyte (Trapa natans) were measured, and fluxes of O₂ and CO₂ across the water–atmosphere interface were estimated from diel changes in outlet concentrations. On an annual scale, Middle Lake exhibited CO₂ supersaturation, averaging 313% (range 86–562%), but was autotrophic with a net O₂ production (6.35 ± 2.05 mol m⁻² y⁻¹), DIC consumption (−31.18 ± 18.77 mol m⁻² y⁻¹) and net export of Chl a downstream (8.38 ± 0.95 mol C m⁻² y⁻¹). Phytoplankton was the main driver of Middle Lake metabolism, with a net primary production estimated at 33.24 mol O₂ m⁻² y⁻¹, corresponding to a sequestration of 4.18 and 0.26 mol m⁻² y⁻¹ of N and P, respectively. At peak biomass, T. natans covered about 18% of Middle Lake’s surface and fixed 2.46, 0.17 and 0.02 mol m⁻² of C, N and P, respectively. Surficial sediments were a sink for O₂ (−14.47 ± 0.65 mol O₂ m⁻² y⁻¹) and a source of DIC and NH₄ ⁺ (18.84 ± 2.80 mol DIC m⁻² y⁻¹ and 0.83 ± 0.16 mol NH₄ ⁺ m⁻² y⁻¹), and dissipated nitrate via denitrification (1.44 ± 0.11 mol NO₃ ⁻ m⁻² y⁻¹). Overall, nutrient uptake by primary producers and regeneration from sediments were a minor fraction of external loads. This work suggests that the creation of fluvial lakes can produce net autotrophic systems, with elevated rates of phytoplanktonic primary production, largely sustained by allochtonous nutrient inputs. These hypereutrophic aquatic bodies are net C sinks, although they simultaneously release CO₂ to the atmosphere.  相似文献   

Adaptation of the Canadian Fire Weather Index to Mediterranean forests     

Chelli  Stefano  Maponi  Pierluigi  Campetella  Giandiego  Monteverde  Paolo  Foglia  Monica  Paris  Eleonora  Lolis  Andreas  Panagopoulos  Thomas 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):1795-1810

Natural Hazards - The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is one of the most used tools to forecast forest fire hazard. In this paper, we propose an adaptation of the FWI to take into account the...  相似文献   

High-order expansion of the solution of preliminary orbit determination problem     

Roberto Armellin  Pierluigi Di Lizia  Michele Lavagna 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2012,112(3):331-352

A method for high-order treatment of uncertainties in preliminary orbit determination is presented. The observations consist in three couples of topocentric right ascensions and declinations at three observation epochs. The goal of preliminary orbit determination is to compute a trajectory that fits with the observations in two-body dynamics. The uncertainties of the observations are usually mapped to the phase space only when additional observations are available and a least squares fitting problem is set up. A method based on Taylor differential algebra for the analytical treatment of observation uncertainties is implemented. Taylor differential algebra allows for the efficient computation of the arbitrary order Taylor expansion of a sufficiently continuous multivariate function. This enables the mapping of the uncertainties from the observation space to the phase space as high-order multivariate Taylor polynomials. These maps can then be propagated forward in time to predict the observable set at successive epochs. This method can be suitably used to recover newly discovered objects when a scarce number of measurements is available. Simulated topocentric observations of asteroids on realistic orbits are used to assess the performances of the method.  相似文献   

The correlation of star formation quenching with internal galaxy properties and environment     

Taysun Kimm  Rachel S. Somerville  Sukyoung K. Yi  Frank C. van den Bosch  Samir Salim  Fabio Fontanot  Pierluigi Monaco  Houjun Mo  Anna Pasquali  R. M. Rich  Xiaohu Yang 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,394(3):1131-1147

We investigate the correlation of star formation quenching with internal galaxy properties and large-scale environment (halo mass) in empirical data and theoretical models. We make use of the halo-based group catalogue of Yang and collaborators, which is based on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Data from the Galaxy evolution explorer are also used to extract the recent star formation rate. In order to investigate the environmental effects, we examine the properties of 'central' and 'satellite' galaxies separately. For central galaxies, we are unable to conclude whether star formation quenching is primarily connected with halo mass or stellar mass, because these two quantities are themselves strongly correlated. For satellite galaxies, a nearly equally strong dependence on halo mass and stellar mass is seen. We make the same comparison for five different semi-analytic models based on three independently developed codes. We find that the models with active galactic nuclei feedback reproduce reasonably well the dependence of the fraction of central red and passive galaxies on halo mass and stellar mass. However, for satellite galaxies, the same models badly overproduce the fraction of red/passive galaxies and do not reproduce the empirical trends with stellar mass or halo mass. This satellite overquenching problem is caused by the too-rapid stripping of the satellites' hot gas haloes, which leads to rapid strangulation of star formation.  相似文献