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For decades, stochastic modellers have used computerized random number generators to produce random numeric sequences fitting a specified statistical distribution. Unfortunately, none of the random number generators we tested satisfactorily produced the target distribution. The result is generated distributions whose mean even diverges from the mean used to generate them, regardless of the length of run. Non‐uniform distributions from short sequences of random numbers are a major problem in stochastic climate generation, because truly uniform distributions are required to produce the intended climate parameter distributions. In order to ensure generation of a representative climate with the stochastic weather generator CLIGEN within a 30‐year run, we tested the climate output resulting from various random number generators. The resulting distributions of climate parameters showed significant departures from the target distributions in all cases. We traced this failure back to the uniform random number generators themselves. This paper proposes a quality control approach to select only those numbers that conform to the expected distribution being retained for subsequent use. The approach is based on goodness‐of‐fit analysis applied to the random numbers generated. Normally distributed deviates are further tested with confidence interval tests on their means and standard deviations. The positive effect of the new approach on the climate characteristics generated and the subsequent deterministic process‐based hydrology and soil erosion modelling are illustrated for four climatologically diverse sites. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Johanna A. A. Bos Sjoerd J. P. Bohncke C. Roel Janssen 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(2):211-238
Late glacial changes in the vegetation were studied in and around a former lake on the southeastern side of a coversand ridge near Milheeze (southern Netherlands). Analyses of microfossils and macroremains and AMS 14C dating were performed on four sediment cores along a transect from sand ridge to the lake centre. Small-scale vegetation patterns and lake-level fluctuations were reconstructed in detail based on the information provided by the transect. For the first time in The Netherlands, cores along a transect within one lake were used to reconstruct the amplitude of late glacial lake-level fluctuations. Near Milheeze, a small and shallow lake was formed during the Bølling. The large increase in the water level during the Bølling and early Allerød, and the transition to more eutrophic conditions at the start of the Allerød, were probably related to the disappearance of permafrost. During the Allerød, open birch and pine woodlands developed in the area. In the lake, organic deposits accumulated, and the lake size and depth fluctuated. At the start of the Younger Dryas, higher lake water levels were recorded and woodlands became more open as a result of both a drop in the temperature and an increase in the effective precipitation. During the late Younger Dryas the lake water level dropped as the climate became drier and temperatures slightly increased. Accumulation of organic deposits in the lake ceased at the end of the Younger Dryas, which was caused by a drop in the water level in combination with the hydroseral succession process within the lake itself. The climatic signal reflected in the late glacial flora and lake-level fluctuations agree well with other published data from The Netherlands. 相似文献
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The effect of scattering in surface wave tomography 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6
Jesper Spetzler Jeannot Trampert Roel Snieder 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,149(3):755-767
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Jürg Hunziker Evert Slob Yuanzhong Fan Roel Snieder Kees Wapenaar 《Geophysical Prospecting》2012,60(5):974-994
We use numerically modelled data sets to investigate the sensitivity of electromagnetic interferometry by multidimensional deconvolution to spatial receiver sampling. Interferometry by multidimensional deconvolution retrieves the reflection response below the receivers after decomposition of the fields into upward and downward decaying fields and deconvolving the upward decaying field by the downward decaying field. Thereby the medium above the receiver level is replaced with a homogeneous half‐space, the sources are redatumed to the receiver level and the direct field is removed. Consequently, in a marine setting the retrieved reflection response is independent of any effect of the water layer and the air above. A drawback of interferometry by multidimensional deconvolution is a possibly unstable matrix inversion, which is necessary to retrieve the reflection response. Additionally, in order to correctly separate the upward and the downward decaying fields, the electromagnetic fields need to be sampled properly. We show that the largest possible receiver spacing depends on two parameters: the vertical distance between the source and the receivers and the length of the source. The receiver spacing should not exceed the larger of these two parameters. Besides these two parameters, the presence of inhomogeneities close to the receivers may also require a dense receiver sampling. We show that by using the synthetic aperture concept, an elongated source can be created from conventionally acquired data in order to overcome these strict sampling criteria. Finally, we show that interferometry may work under real‐world conditions with random noise and receiver orientation and positioning errors. 相似文献
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Roel Plant Jeremy Walker Scott Rayburg Jacqueline Gothe Teresa Leung 《The Australian geographer》2012,43(1):75-91
Agricultural chemicals are a notoriously intractable source of environmental pollution. Offering enhanced agricultural productivity, they simultaneously risk degrading the ecological basis upon which agriculture depends. This paper considers chemicalisation as a cause of the erosion of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem resilience, focusing on the Hawkesbury-Nepean River and the small-scale horticulturalists who supply the city's fresh vegetable markets, working under the pressure of urbanisation, retail monopolies, indifferent land-use planning, and often without access to information about pesticide use in the languages they understand. Arguing that standard practices of ‘risk management’ are unable to adequately control chemical contamination, the paper presents findings from interviews with actors within the ‘assemblage’ of institutions with responsibility for agriculture, water quality, and environmental protection, in order to assess the effectiveness of pesticide governance in the Greater Sydney Basin. It appears that pesticide pollution is far from being tamed: it is rarely measured nor monitored, neither is it a priority of any particular agency. Arguing that public health, the long-term viability of local farming and the ecological well-being of the Hawkesbury-Nepean River are mutually consistent goals, we conclude that these vital elements of the common-weal are currently subject to a system of ‘organised irresponsibility’. The paper concludes by proposing several ways forward. 相似文献