Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes     

Hotaek Park  Alexander N. Fedorov  Mikhail N. Zheleznyak  Pavel Y. Konstantinov  John E. Walsh 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2873-2895

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T_SOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T_SOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T_SOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T_SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T_SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.  相似文献   

A Bayesian approach to monitoring and assessing unexploded ordnance remediation progress from munitions testing ranges     

Stephen Walsh  Kevin Anderson  John Hathaway  Brent Pulsipher 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(6):805-814

We present a statistical methodology which aims to monitor and assess the progress of unexploded ordnance remediation. We explicitly quantify the probability that each buried sensor-identified anomaly is not a target of interest conditional on the information gleaned from anomalies which have been dug and identified. We provide a measure of confidence that the anomalies which remain onsite after remediation are not unexploded ordnance—this measure of confidence is gleaned through Monte Carlo methods. The methodology is iterative in that, at any point in the remediation process, we can assess remediation progress and compute the probability that no targets of interest remain given the available dig information.  相似文献   

Neogene upper‐crustal cooling of the Olympus range (northern Aegean): major role of Hellenic back‐arc extension over propagation of the North Anatolia Fault Zone     

Isabelle Coutand  Michael Walsh  Bertha Louis  Frank Chanier  Jacky Ferrière  Jean‐Yves Reynaud 《地学学报》2014,26(4):287-297

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most hazardous active faults on Earth, yet its Pliocene space‐time propagation across the north Aegean domain remains poorly constrained. We use low‐temperature multi‐thermochronology and inverse thermal modelling to quantify the cooling history of the upper crust across the Olympus range. This range is located in the footwall of a system of normal faults traditionally interpreted as resulting from superposed Middle–Late Miocene N–S stretching, related to the back‐arc extension of the Hellenic subduction zone, and a Pliocene‐Quaternary transtensional field, attributed to the south‐westward propagation of the NAFZ. We find that accelerated exhumational cooling occurred between 12 and 6 Ma at rates of 15–35 °C Ma^?1 and decreased to <3 °C Ma^?1 by 8–6 Ma. The absence of significant Plio‐Pleistocene cooling across Olympus suggests that crustal exhumation there is driven by late Miocene back‐arc extension, while the impact of the NAFZ remains limited.  相似文献   

Terrestrial LiDAR monitoring of coastal foredune evolution in managed and unmanaged systems     

I. Conery  K. Brodie  N. Spore  J. Walsh 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(4):877-892

Coastal dunes provide essential protection for infrastructure in developed regions, acting as the first line of defence against ocean-side flooding. Quantifying dune erosion, growth and recovery from storms is critical from management, resiliency and engineering with nature perspectives. This study utilizes 22 months of high-resolution terrestrial LiDAR (Riegl VZ-2000) observations to investigate the impact of management, anthropogenic modifications and four named storms on dune morphological evolution along ~100 m of an open-coast, recently nourished beach in Nags Head, NC. The influences of specific management strategies – such as fencing and plantings – were evaluated by comparing these to the morphologic response at an unmanaged control site at the USACE Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC (33 km to the north), which experienced similar environmental forcings. Various beach-dune morphological parameters were extracted (e.g. backshore-dune volume) and compared with aeolian and hydrodynamic forcing metrics between each survey interval. The results show that LiDAR is a useful tool for quantifying complex dune evolution over fine spatial and temporal scales. Under similar forcings, the managed dune grew 1.7 times faster than the unmanaged dune, due to a larger sediment supply and enhanced capture through fencing, plantings and walkovers. These factors at the managed site contributed to the welding of the incipient dune to the primary foredune over a short period of less than a year, which has been observed to take up to decades in natural systems. Storm events caused alongshore variable dune erosion primarily to the incipient dune, yet also caused significant accretion, particularly along the crest at the managed site, resulting in net dune growth. Traditional empirical Bagnold equations correlated with observed trends of backshore-dune growth but overpredicted magnitudes. This is likely because these formulations do not encompass supply-limiting factors and erosional processes. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Reaction softening by dissolution–precipitation creep in a retrograde greenschist facies ductile shear zone,New Hampshire,USA          下载免费PDF全文

R. J. McAleer  D. L. Bish  M. J. Kunk  K. R. Sicard  P. M. Valley  G. J. Walsh  B. A. Wathen  R. P. Wintsch 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2017,35(1):95-119

We describe strain localization by a mixed process of reaction and microstructural softening in a lower greenschist facies ductile fault zone that transposes and replaces middle to upper amphibolite facies fabrics and mineral assemblages in the host schist of the Littleton Formation near Claremont, New Hampshire. Here, Na‐poor muscovite and chlorite progressively replace first staurolite, then garnet, and finally biotite porphyroblasts as the core of the fault zone is approached. Across the transect, higher grade fabric‐forming Na‐rich muscovite is also progressively replaced by fabric‐forming Na‐poor muscovite. The mineralogy of the new phyllonitic fault‐rock produced is dominated by Na‐poor muscovite and chlorite together with late albite porphyroblasts. The replacement of the amphibolite facies porphyroblasts by muscovite and chlorite is pseudomorphic in some samples and shows that the chemical metastability of the porphyroblasts is sufficient to drive replacement. In contrast, element mapping shows that fabric‐forming Na‐rich muscovite is selectively replaced at high‐strain microstructural sites, indicating that strain energy played an important role in activating the dissolution of the compositionally metastable muscovite. The replacement of strong, high‐grade porphyroblasts by weaker Na‐poor muscovite and chlorite constitutes reaction softening. The crystallization of parallel and contiguous mica in the retrograde foliation at the expense of the earlier and locally crenulated Na‐rich muscovite‐defined foliation destroys not only the metastable high‐grade mineralogy, but also its stronger geometry. This process constitutes both reaction and microstructural softening. The deformation mechanism here was thus one of dissolution–precipitation creep, activated at considerably lower stresses than might be predicted in quartzofeldspathic rocks at the same lower greenschist facies conditions.  相似文献   

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C)     

Ken Kobayashi  Jonathan Cirtain  Amy R. Winebarger  Kelly Korreck  Leon Golub  Robert W. Walsh  Bart De Pontieu  Craig DeForest  Alan Title  Sergey Kuzin  Sabrina Savage  Dyana Beabout  Brent Beabout  William Podgorski  David Caldwell  Kenneth McCracken  Mark Ordway  Henry Bergner  Richard Gates  Sean McKillop  Peter Cheimets  Simon Platt  Nick Mitchell  David Windt 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4393-4412

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) was flown on a NASA sounding rocket on 11 July 2012. The goal of the Hi-C mission was to obtain high-resolution (≈?0.3?–?0.4′′), high-cadence (≈?5 seconds) images of a solar active region to investigate the dynamics of solar coronal structures at small spatial scales. The instrument consists of a normal-incidence telescope with the optics coated with multilayers to reflect a narrow wavelength range around 19.3 nm (including the Fe xii 19.5-nm spectral line) and a 4096×4096 camera with a plate scale of 0.1′′?pixel^?1. The target of the Hi-C rocket flight was Active Region 11520. Hi-C obtained 37 full-frame images and 86 partial-frame images during the rocket flight. Analysis of the Hi-C data indicates the corona is structured on scales smaller than currently resolved by existing satellite missions.  相似文献   

The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations          下载免费PDF全文

D. S. Lauretta  A. E. Bartels  M. A. Barucci  E. B. Bierhaus  R. P. Binzel  W. F. Bottke  H. Campins  S. R. Chesley  B. C. Clark  B. E. Clark  E. A. Cloutis  H. C. Connolly  M. K. Crombie  M. Delbó  J. P. Dworkin  J. P. Emery  D. P. Glavin  V. E. Hamilton  C. W. Hergenrother  C. L. Johnson  L. P. Keller  P. Michel  M. C. Nolan  S. A. Sandford  D. J. Scheeres  A. A. Simon  B. M. Sutter  D. Vokrouhlický  K. J. Walsh 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2015,50(4):834-849

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.  相似文献   

The effects of trophic interactions and spatial competition on algal community composition on Hawaiian coral reefs     

Mark J. A. Vermeij  Meghan L. Dailer  Sheila M. Walsh  Mary K. Donovan  Celia M. Smith 《Marine Ecology》2010,31(2):291-299

Much of coral reef ecology has focused on how human impacts change coral reefs to macroalgal reefs. However, macroalgae may not always be a good indicator of reef decline, especially on reefs with significant sea urchin populations, as found in Kenya and Hawaii. This study tests the effects of trophic interactions (i.e. herbivory by fishes and sea urchins) and spatial competition (between algae and coral) on algal community structure of reefs surrounding two Hawaiian Islands that vary in their level of human impacts. Reef‐building organisms (corals and crustose coralline algae) were less abundant and turf algae were more abundant on Maui as compared to Lanai, where human impacts are lower. In contrast to previous studies, we found no evidence that macroalgae increased with human impacts. Instead, low turf and macroalgal abundance were best explained by the interactive effects of coral cover and sea urchin abundance. Fishing sea urchin predators appeared to have cascading effects on the benthic community. The absence of sea urchin predators and high sea urchin densities correspond to a disproportionately high abundance of turf and crustose coralline algae. We propose that high turf algal abundance is a better indicator of reef decline in Hawaii than high macroalgal abundance because turf abundance was highest on reefs with low coral cover and few fish. The results of this study emphasize that understanding changes in community composition are context‐dependent and that not all degraded reefs look the same.  相似文献   

Death in the sea: Enigmatic phytoplankton losses     

John J Walsh 《Progress in Oceanography》1983,12(1):1-86

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Simulating trawl herding in flatfish: the role of fish length in behaviour and swimming characteristics   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Winger  Paul D.; Walsh  Stephen J.; He  Pingguo; Brown  Joseph A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2004,61(7):1179-1185

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