A rapid method for flood susceptibility mapping in two districts of Phatthalung Province (Thailand): present and projected conditions for 2050     

Michele Marconi  Beatrice Gatto  Michele Magni  Fausto Marincioni 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(1):329-350

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Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling     

Jalal Samia  Arnaud Temme  Arnold K. Bregt  Jakob Wallinga  John Stuiver  Fausto Guzzetti  Francesca Ardizzone  Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2129-2144

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.  相似文献   

Improved magnetic anomalies of the Antarctic lithosphere from satellite and near-surface data     

Hyung Rae Kim  Ralph R. B. von Frese  Patrick T. Taylor  Alexander V. Golynsky  Luis R. Gaya-Piqué  Fausto Ferraccioli 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(1):119-126

The Antarctic magnetic anomaly map compiled marine and airborne surveys collected south of 60°S through 1999 and used Magsat data to help fill in the regional gaps between the surveys. Ørsted and CHAMP satellite magnetic observations with greatly improved measurement accuracies and temporal and spatial coverage of the Antarctic, have now supplanted the Magsat data. We combined the new satellite observations with the near-surface survey data for an improved magnetic anomaly map of the Antarctic lithosphere. Specifically, we separated the crustal from the core and external field components in the satellite data using crustal thickness variations estimated from the terrain and the satellite-derived free-air gravity observations. Regional gaps in the near-surface surveys were then filled with predictions from crustal magnetization models that jointly satisfied the near-surface and satellite crustal anomalies. Comparisons in some of the regional gaps that also considered newly acquired aeromagnetic data demonstrated the enhanced anomaly estimation capabilities of the predictions over those from conventional minimum curvature and spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models. We also noted that the growing number of regional and world magnetic survey compilations involve coverage gaps where these procedures can contribute effective near-surface crustal anomaly estimates.  相似文献   

Solar dynamo theory: a new look at the origin of small-scale magnetic fields     

Fausto Cattaneo  David W Hughes FRAS 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2001,42(3):3.18-3.22

Fausto Cattaneo and David W Hughes delve beneath the surface of the Sun with numerical models of turbulent convection.
Although magnetic dynamo action is traditionally associated with rotation, fast dynamo theory shows that chaotic flows, even without rotation, can act as efficient small-scale dynamos. Indeed, numerical simulations suggest that granular and supergranular convection may generate locally a substantial part of the field in the quiet photosphere.  相似文献   

Improvement of Nakamura technique by singular spectrum analysis   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Roberto Carniel  Fausto Barazza  Paolo Pascolo 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2006,26(1):55-63

In this work we investigate the application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis to improve Nakamura Technique. The SSA has a wide and multidisciplinary range of applications; it allows a time series to be decomposed into different components, e.g. the signal itself, as well as various noise components, which can be subsequently removed from the data. Removal of the minor component of the data can lead to significant improvements in the identification of the system. In this paper the use of SSA Technique allows to optimize the signal to noise ratio before computing the classical Nakamura spectral ratios. A number of typical applications are also presented.  相似文献   

Microlevelling procedures applied to regional aeromagnetic data: an example from the Transantarctic Mountains (Antarctica)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Fausto Ferraccioli  Marco Gambetta  & Emanuele Bozzo 《Geophysical Prospecting》1998,46(2):177-196

The extensive application of digital enhancement and filtering as a powerful tool for aeromagnetic interpretation, not only of high resolution but also of regional data, requires an improved levelling. Two microlevelling techniques were thus compared in order to find an effective but relatively simple procedure to remove, or at least to reduce, residual magnetic errors remaining after standard levelling processes. This study was carried out on regional aeromagnetic data recently acquired at high magnetic latitudes along the Transantarctic Mountains in Antarctica, where it is particularly critical to remove time-dependent magnetic variations. Two-dimensional FFT filters applied to the gridded data, namely the Butterworth and a directional cosine filter, proved to be more effective than previously proposed one-dimensional space-domain filters in the reduction of the 'residual corrugation' not removed by statistical levelling. Tectonic interpretation of trends detected in the total field magnetic anomaly map and in the 3D analytic signal improved after application of frequency-domain microlevelling. However, we also show that when interpreting microlevelled data, two factors must be considered: (i) the possible presence of real geological trends aligned along the flight lines; (ii) modifications in the results yielded by depth estimates of magnetic sources due to the FFT filters applied during the microlevelling procedure. Such changes were seen both in the well-established 2D FFT method, based on the slope of the energy spectrum, and in the more recent 3D Euler deconvolution technique. Overall our results indicate that microlevelling could profitably be applied to older gridded aeromagnetic data sets in Antarctica, thus improving the accuracy and geological significance of future regional magnetic compilations, as already seen in other continents.  相似文献   

What is a flux tube? On the magnetic field topology of buoyant flux structures     

Fausto Cattaneo  Nicholas H. Brummell  Kelly S. Cline † 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,365(3):727-734

We study the topology of field lines threading buoyant magnetic flux structures. The magnetic structures, visually resembling idealized magnetic flux tubes, are generated self-consistently by numerical simulation of the interaction of magnetic buoyancy and a localized velocity shear in a stably stratified atmosphere. Depending on the parameters, the system exhibits varying degrees of symmetry. By integrating along magnetic field lines and constructing return maps, we show that, depending on the type of underlying behaviour, the stages of the evolution, and therefore the degree of symmetry, the resulting magnetic structures can have field lines with one of three distinct topologies. When the x -translational and y -reflectional symmetries remain intact, magnetic field lines lie on surfaces but individual lines do not cover the surface. When the y symmetry is broken, magnetic field lines lie on surfaces and individual lines do cover the surface. When both x and y symmetries are broken, magnetic field lines wander chaotically over a large volume of the magnetically active region. We discuss how these results impact our simple ideas of a magnetic flux tube as an object with an inside and an outside, and introduce the concept of 'leaky' tubes.  相似文献   

Do landslides follow landslides? Insights in path dependency from a multi-temporal landslide inventory   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jalal Samia  Arnaud Temme  Arnold Bregt  Jakob Wallinga  Fausto Guzzetti  Francesca Ardizzone  Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2017,14(2):547-558

Landslides are a major category of natural disasters, causing loss of lives, livelihoods and property. The critical roles played by triggering (such as extreme rainfall and earthquakes), and intrinsic factors (such as slope steepness, soil properties and lithology) have previously successfully been recognized and quantified using a variety of qualitative, quantitative and hybrid methods in a wide range of study sites. However, available data typically do not allow to investigate the effect that earlier landslides have on intrinsic factors and hence on follow-up landslides. Therefore, existing methods cannot account for the potentially complex susceptibility changes caused by landslide events. In this study, we used a substantially different alternative approach to shed light on the potential effect of earlier landslides using a multi-temporal dataset of landslide occurrence containing 17 time slices. Spatial overlap and the time interval between landslides play key roles in our work. We quantified the degree to which landslides preferentially occur in locations where landslides occurred previously, how long such an effect is noticeable, and how landslides are spatially associated over time. We also investigated whether overlap with previous landslides causes differences in landslide geometric properties. We found that overlap among landslides demonstrates a clear legacy effect (path dependency) that has influence on the landslide affected area. Landslides appear to cause greater susceptibility for follow-up landslides over a period of about 10  years. Follow-up landslides are on average larger and rounder than landslides that do not follow earlier slides. The effect of earlier landslides on follow-up landslides has implications for understanding of the landslides evolution and the assessment of landslide susceptibility.  相似文献   

Laboratory sandbox validation of pollutant source location methods   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Fausto Cupola  Maria Giovanna Tanda  Andrea Zanini 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(1):169-182

Inverse methods can be used to recover the pollutant source location from concentration data. In this paper, the relative effectiveness of two proposed methods, simultaneous release function and source location identification (SRSI) and backward probability model based on adjoint state method (BPM-ASM) are evaluated using real data collected by using experimental equipment. The device is a sandbox that reproduces an unconfined aquifer in which all the variables are controlled. A numerical model was calibrated using experimental observations. The SRSI is a stochastic procedure which finds the source location and the release history by means of a Bayesian geostatistical approach (GA). The BPM-ASM provides the backward probability location of the pollutant detected at a monitoring point by means of a reverse transport simulation. The results show that both methods perform well. While the simultaneous release function and SRSI method requires a preliminary delineation of a probable source area and some weak hypotheses about the statistical structure of the unknown release function, the backward probability model requires some hypothesis about the contaminant release time. A case study was performed using two observation points only, and despite the scarcity of data, both methodologies were able to accurately reconstruct the true source location. The GA has the advantage to recover the release history function too, whilst the backward probability model works well with fewer data. If there are many observations, both methodologies may be computationally heavy. A transfer function approach has been adopted for the numerical definition of the sensitivity matrix in the SRSI method. The reliability of the experimental equipment was tested in previous laboratory works, conducted under several different conditions.  相似文献   

Tier-based approaches for landslide susceptibility assessment in Europe   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Andreas Günther  Paola Reichenbach  Jean-Philippe Malet  Miet Van Den Eeckhaut  Javier Hervás  Claire Dashwood  Fausto Guzzetti 《Landslides》2013,10(5):529-546

In the framework of the European Soil Thematic Strategy and the associated proposal of a Framework Directive on the protection and sustainable use of soil, landslides were recognised as a soil threat requiring specific strategies for priority area identification, spatial hazard assessment and management. This contribution outlines the general specifications for nested, Tier-based geographical landslide zonings at small spatial scales to identify priority areas susceptible to landslides (Tier 1) and to perform quantitative susceptibility evaluations within these (Tier 2). A heuristic, synoptic-scale Tier 1 assessment exploiting a reduced set of geoenvironmental factors derived from common pan-European data sources is proposed for the European Union and adjacent countries. Evaluation of the susceptibility estimate with national-level landslide inventory data suggests that a zonation of Europe according to, e.g. morphology and climate, and performing separate susceptibility assessments per zone could give more reliable results. To improve the Tier 1 assessment, a geomorphological terrain zoning and landslide typology differentiation are then applied for France. A multivariate landslide susceptibility assessment using additional information on landslide conditioning and triggering factors, together with a historical catalogue of landslides, is proposed for Tier 2 analysis. An approach is tested for priority areas in Italy using small administrative mapping units, allowing for relating socioeconomic census data with landslide susceptibility, which is mandatory for decision making regarding the adoption of landslide prevention and mitigation measures. The paper concludes with recommendations on further work to harmonise European landslide susceptibility assessments in the context of the European Soil Thematic Strategy.  相似文献