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We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.  相似文献   

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The resolution of whole Earth seismic tomographic models   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
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5.
Most marine organisms are characterized by at least one planktonic phase during their life history, potentially allowing interconnection of populations separated by several hundred kilometers. For many years, the idea that marine species are genetically homogenous throughout their range of distribution, due to passive larval transport, has been a paradigm. Nowadays, a growing number of studies underline the existence of boundaries in the marine realm and highlight how larval dispersal is a complex process depending on biotic as well as abiotic factors. Marine fragmented habitats, such as atolls, mangroves and estuaries, are optimal systems for investigating the marine dispersion process under a metapopulation approach, since populations can be geographically defined a priori as opposed to those occupying open marine environments. Within this frame, the present paper investigates the population genetic structure and the demographic history of the mangrove crab Neosarmatium meinerti within the western Indian Ocean by partial sequences of the mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I. A total of 167 specimens were sampled from six mangrove sites distributed along the East African coast, from Kenya to South Africa, also including a mangrove forest located on Mahé Island, Seychelles. A sharp genetic break between the mainland and the Seychelles is recorded, revealing the existence of two historically distinct groups that can be defined as independent evolutionary units. Gene flow along the East African coast appears to be high enough to form a single metapopulation, probably by means of stepping stone populations. Otherwise, this mainland metapopulation is currently under expansion through a gradual moving front from the subtropical toward the equatorial populations.  相似文献   
6.
Summary. We give the analytical formulation for calculating the transient displacement of fields produced by earthquakes in a stratified, selfgravitating, incompressible, viscoelastic earth. We have evaluated the potential of viscous creep in the asthenosphere in exciting the Chandler wobble by a four-layer model consisting of an elastic lithosphere, a two-layer Maxwell viscoelastic mantle, and an inviscid core. The seismic source is modelled as an inhomogeneous boundary condition, which involves a jump condition of the displacement fields across the fault in the lithosphere. The response fields are derived from the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, using analytical propagator matrices in the Laplace-transformed domain. Transient flows produced by post-seismic rebound are found to be confined within the asthenosphere for local viscosity values less than 1020P. The viscosity of the mantle below the low-viscosity channel is kept at 1022P. For low-viscosity zones with widths greater than about 100 km and asthenospheric viscosities less than 1018P, we find that viscoelasticity can amplify the perturbations in the moment of inertia by a factor of 4–5 above the elastic contribution within the time span of the wobble period. We have carried out a comparative study on the changes of the inertia tensor from forcings due to surface loading and to faulting. In general the global responses from faulting are found to be much more sensitive to the viscosity structure of the asthenosphere than those produced from surface loading.  相似文献   
7.
Summary. Most crustal earthquakes of the world are observed to occur within a seismogenic layer which extends from the Earth's surface to a depth of a few tens of kilometres at most. A model is proposed in which the shear zone along a transcurrent plate margin is represented as a viscoelastic medium with depth-dependent power-law rheology. A frictional resistance linearly increasing with depth is assumed on a vertical transcurrent fault within the shear zone. Such a model is able to reproduce a continuous transition from the brittle behaviour of the upper crust to the ductile behaviour at depth. Assuming that the shear zone is subjected to a constant strain rate from the opposite motions of the two adjacent plates, it is found that there exists a maximum depth H below which tectonic stress can never reach the frictional threshold: this may be identified as the maximum depth of earthquake nucleation. The value of H is consistent with observations for plausible values of the model parameters. The stress evolution in the shear zone is calculated in the linear approximation of the constitutive equation. A change in rigidity with depth, which is also introduced in the model, may reproduce the high vertical gradient of shear stress, which has been measured across the San Andreas fault, and the fact that most earthquakes are nucleated at some depth in the seismogenic layer. A crack which drops the ambient stress to the dynamic frictional level is then introduced in the model. To this aim, a crack solution is employed without a stress singularity at its edges, which is compatible with a frictional stress threshold criterion for fracture. A constraint on the vertical friction gradient is obtained if such cracks are assumed to be entirely confined within the seismogenic layer.  相似文献   
8.
summary . Calculations of the thermodynamical Gruneisen's gamma as a function of temperature and volume for iron are presented. The ranges of the relevant pressures and temperatures extend to those corresponding to the Earth's core. The various crystal structures of iron and several kinds of inter-molecular potential functions are considered. It is found that it is not possible to describe the Gruneisen's gamma for iron with the accuracy needed for an assessment of the thermal state of the core mainly because the available experimental data do not allow a definite choice among the possible potential functions.  相似文献   
9.
The change in the inertia tensor of the Earth, due to the mass shift following a seismic event, has been computed by several authors for non-rotating earth models. Rotation is taken into account in the present paper, and the additional change in the inertia tensor is computed for an equivalent earth model, in which the axis of geometrical symmetry becomes tilted instead of the axis of greatest inertia. Rotation is thus seen to produce an increase by a factor 1.4 in the amplitude variation of the Chandler wobble, with respect to the non-rotating case, which, when added to the 1.4 amplitude increase due to the precessional re-adjustment of the equatorial bulge, gives a factor of 2 increase of the Chandler wobble amplitude with respect to the case of a rigid earth model.  相似文献   
10.
We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.  相似文献   
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