Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma     

Marasco  David  Murray-Tuite  Pamela  Guikema  Seth  Logan  Tom 《Natural Hazards》2020,103(2):2459-2487

Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times.

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Character and origin of De Geer moraines in the Seacoast region of New Hampshire,USA          下载免费PDF全文

Samantha N. Sinclair  Joseph M. Licciardi  Seth W. Campbell  Brian M. Madore 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(2):225-237

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Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments     

Royce A. Francis  Stefanie M. Falconi  Roshanak Nateghi  Seth D. Guikema 《Climatic change》2011,106(1):31-55

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.  相似文献   

Do southern Appalachian Mountain summer stream temperatures respond to removal of understory rhododendron thickets?     

Scott Raulerson  C. Rhett Jackson  Nathan D. Melear  Seth E. Younger  Maura Dudley  Katherine J. Elliott 《水文研究》2020,34(14):3045-3060

Dense understory thickets of the native evergreen shrub Rhododendron maximum expanded initially following elimination of American chestnut by the chestnut blight, and later in response to loss of the eastern hemlock due to hemlock woolly adelgid invasion. Rhododendron thickets often blanket streams and their riparian zones, creating cool, low-light microclimates. To determine the effect of such understory thickets on summer stream temperatures, we removed riparian rhododendron understory on 300 m reaches of two southern Appalachian Mountain headwater streams, while leaving two 300 m reference reaches undisturbed. Overhead canopy was left intact in all four streams, but all streams were selected to have a significant component of dead or dying eastern hemlock in the overstory, creating time-varying canopy gaps throughout the reach. We continuously monitored temperatures upstream, within and downstream of treatment and reference reaches. Temperatures were monitored in all four streams in the summer before treatments were imposed (2014), and for two summers following treatment (2015, 2016). Temperatures varied significantly across and within streams prior to treatment and across years for the reference streams. After rhododendron removal, increases in summer stream temperatures were observed at some locations within the treatment reaches, but these increases did not persist downstream and varied by watershed, sensor, and year. Significant increases in daily maxima in treatment reaches ranged from 0.9 to 2.6°C. Overhead canopy provided enough shade to prevent rhododendron removal from increasing summer temperatures to levels deleterious to native cold-water fauna (average summer temperatures remained below 16°C), and local temperature effects were not persistent.  相似文献   

Public attitudes towards flooding and property-level flood protection measures     

Seth Owusu  Grant Wright  Scott Arthur 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(3):1963-1978

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Early development of strike-slip faulting: palaeoseismic study along the Petersen Mountain fault,northern Walker Lane,Nevada     

Conni De Masi  Rich Koehler  Seth Dee  Amanda Keen-Zebert 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(3):403-414

Characterising youthful strike-slip fault systems within transtensional regimes is often complicated by the presence of tectonic geomorphic features produced by normal faulting associated with oblique extension. The Petersen Mountain fault in the northern Walker Lane tectonic province exhibits evidence of both normal and strike-slip faulting. We present the results of geologic and geomorphic mapping, and palaeoseismic trenching that characterise the fault's style and sense of deformation. The fault consists of two major traces. The western trace displaces colluvial, landslide, and middle to late Pleistocene alluvial fans and is associated with aligned range front saddles, linear drainages, and oversteepened range front slopes. The eastern trace is associated with a low linear bedrock ridge, a narrow graben, right deflected stream channels, and scarps in late Pleistocene alluvial fan deposits. A trench on the eastern trace of the fault exposed a clear juxtaposition of disintegrated granodiorite bedrock against sand and boulder alluvial fan deposits across a steeply east-dipping fault. The stratigraphic evidence supports the occurrence of at least one late Pleistocene earthquake with a component of lateral displacement. As such, the Petersen Mountain fault accommodates part of the ~7 mm/yr of dextral shear distributed across the northern Walker Lane.  相似文献   

Computational model coupling mode II discrete fracture propagation with continuum damage zone evolution          下载免费PDF全文

Wencheng Jin  Hao Xu  Chloé Arson  Seth Busetti 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(2):223-250

We propose a numerical method that couples a cohesive zone model (CZM) and a finite element‐based continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model. The CZM represents a mode II macro‐fracture, and CDM finite elements (FE) represent the damage zone of the CZM. The coupled CZM/CDM model can capture the flow of energy that takes place between the bulk material that forms the matrix and the macroscopic fracture surfaces. The CDM model, which does not account for micro‐crack interaction, is calibrated against triaxial compression tests performed on Bakken shale, so as to reproduce the stress/strain curve before the failure peak. Based on a comparison with Kachanov's micro‐mechanical model, we confirm that the critical micro‐crack density value equal to 0.3 reflects the point at which crack interaction cannot be neglected. The CZM is assigned a pure mode II cohesive law that accounts for the dependence of the shear strength and energy release rate on confining pressure. The cohesive shear strength of the CZM is calibrated by calculating the shear stress necessary to reach a CDM damage of 0.3 during a direct shear test. We find that the shear cohesive strength of the CZM depends linearly on the confining pressure. Triaxial compression tests are simulated, in which the shale sample is modeled as an FE CDM continuum that contains a predefined thin cohesive zone representing the idealized shear fracture plane. The shear energy release rate of the CZM is fitted in order to match to the post‐peak stress/strain curves obtained during experimental tests performed on Bakken shale. We find that the energy release rate depends linearly on the shear cohesive strength. We then use the calibrated shale rheology to simulate the propagation of a meter‐scale mode II fracture. Under low confining pressure, the macroscopic crack (CZM) and its damaged zone (CDM) propagate simultaneously (i.e., during the same loading increments). Under high confining pressure, the fracture propagates in slip‐friction, that is, the debonding of the cohesive zone alternates with the propagation of continuum damage. The computational method is applicable to a range of geological injection problems including hydraulic fracturing and fluid storage and should be further enhanced by the addition of mode I and mixed mode (I+II+III) propagation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of daily stream water temperatures with a Bayesian regression approach          下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad M. Sohrabi  Rohan Benjankar  Daniele Tonina  Seth J. Wenger  Daniel J. Isaak 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1719-1733

Stream water temperature plays a significant role in aquatic ecosystems where it controls many important biological and physical processes. Reliable estimates of water temperature at the daily time step are critical in managing water resources. We developed a parsimonious piecewise Bayesian model for estimating daily stream water temperatures that account for temporal autocorrelation and both linear and nonlinear relationships with air temperature and discharge. The model was tested at 8 climatically different basins of the USA and at 34 sites within the mountainous Boise River Basin (Idaho, USA). The results show that the proposed model is robust with an average root mean square error of 1.25 °C and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.92 over a 2‐year period. Our approach can be used to predict historic daily stream water temperatures in any location using observed daily stream temperature and regional air temperature data.  相似文献   

A Long-Term Decrease of the Mid-Size Segmentation Lengths Observed in the He <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> (30.4 nm) Solar EUV Emission     

Leonid Didkovsky  Seth Wieman  Elena Korogodina 《Solar physics》2017,292(2):32

Power spectra of segmentation-cell length (a dominant length scale of EUV emission in the transition region) from full-disk He?ii extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images observed by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) during periods of quiet-Sun conditions for a time interval from 1996 to 2015 were analyzed. The spatial power as a function of the spatial frequency from about 0.04 to 0.27 (EIT) or up to 0.48 (AIA) Mm^?1 depends on the distribution of the observed segmentation-cell dimensions – a structure of the solar EUV network. The temporal variations of the spatial power reported by Didkovsky and Gurman (Solar Phys. 289, 153, 2014) were suggested as decreases at the mid-spatial frequencies for the compared spectra when the power curves at the highest spatial frequencies of 0.5 pix^?1 were adjusted to match each other. This approach has been extended in this work to compare spectral ratios at high spatial frequencies expressed in the solar spatial frequency units of Mm^?1. A model of EIT and AIA spatial responses allowed us to directly compare spatial spectral ratios at high spatial frequencies for five years of joint operation of EIT and AIA, from 2010 to 2015. Based on this approach, we represent these ratio changes as a long-term network transformation that may be interpreted as a continuous dissipation of mid-size network structures to the smaller-size structures in the transition region. In contrast to expected cycling of the segmentation-cell dimension structures and associated spatial power in the spectra with the solar cycle, the spectra demonstrate a significant and steady change of the EUV network. The temporal trend across these structural spectra is not critically sensitive to any long-term instrumental changes, e.g. degradation of sensitivity, but to the change of the segmentation-cell dimensions of the EUV network structure.  相似文献   

Enhancing RUSLE to include runoff‐driven phenomena     

Seth M. Dabney  Daniel C. Yoder  Dalmo A. N. Vieira  Ronald L. Bingner 《水文研究》2011,25(9):1373-1390

RUSLE2 (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) is the most recent in the family of Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE)/RUSLE/RUSLE2 models proven to provide robust estimates of average annual sheet and rill erosion from a wide range of land use, soil, and climatic conditions. RUSLE2's capabilities have been expanded over earlier versions using methods of estimating time‐varying runoff and process‐based sediment transport routines so that it can estimate sediment transport/deposition/delivery on complex hillslopes. In this report we propose and evaluate a method of predicting a series of representative runoff events whose sizes, durations, and timings are estimated from information already in the RUSLE2 database. The methods were derived from analysis of 30‐year simulations using a widely accepted climate generator and runoff model and were validated against additional independent simulations not used in developing the index events, as well as against long‐term measured monthly rainfall/runoff sets. Comparison of measured and RUSLE2‐predicted monthly runoff suggested that the procedures outlined may underestimate plot‐scale runoff during periods of the year with greater than average rainfall intensity, and a modification to improve predictions was developed. In order to illustrate the potential of coupling RUSLE2 with a process‐based channel erosion model, the resulting set of representative storms was used as an input to the channel routines used in Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems (CREAMS) to calculate ephemeral gully erosion. The method was applied to a hypothetical 5‐ha field cropped to cotton in Marshall County, MS, bisected by a potential ephemeral gully having channel slopes ranging from 0·5 to 5% and with hillslopes on both sides of the channel with 5% steepness and 22·1 m length. Results showed the representative storm sequence produced reasonable results in CREAMS indicating that ephemeral gully erosion may be of the same order of magnitude as sheet and rill erosion. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献