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1.
Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide-prone area (Findikli,NE of Turkey) by likelihood-frequency ratio and weighted linear combination models 总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17
Landslides are very common natural problems in the Black Sea Region of Turkey due to the steep topography, improper use of
land cover and adverse climatic conditions for landslides. In the western part of region, many studies have been carried out
especially in the last decade for landslide susceptibility mapping using different evaluation methods such as deterministic
approach, landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses. The purpose of this study is to
produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Findikli district, Rize) located at the eastern part of the
Black Sea Region of Turkey by likelihood frequency ratio (LRM) model and weighted linear combination (WLC) model and to compare
the results obtained. For this purpose, landslide inventory map of the area were prepared for the years of 1983 and 1995 by
detailed field surveys and aerial-photography studies. Slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from drainage lines,
distance from roads and the land-cover of the study area are considered as the landslide-conditioning parameters. The differences
between the susceptibility maps derived by the LRM and the WLC models are relatively minor when broad-based classifications
are taken into account. However, the WLC map showed more details but the other map produced by LRM model produced weak results.
The reason for this result is considered to be the fact that the majority of pixels in the LRM map have high values than the
WLC-derived susceptibility map. In order to validate the two susceptibility maps, both of them were compared with the landslide
inventory map. Although the landslides do not exist in the very high susceptibility class of the both maps, 79% of the landslides
fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the WLC map while this is 49% for the LRM map. This shows that the
WLC model exhibited higher performance than the LRM model. 相似文献
2.
Based on the Bayesian principle and the fact that GPS carrier-phase ambiguities are integers, the posterior distribution
of the ambiguities and the position parameters is derived. This is then used to derive the maximum posterior likelihood solution
of the ambiguities. The accuracy of the integer ambiguity solution and the position parameters is also studied according to
the posterior distribution. It is found that the accuracy of the integer solution depends not only on the variance of the
corresponding float ambiguity solution but also on its values.
Received: 27 July 1999 / Accepted: 22 November 2000 相似文献
3.
Fernando J. Mndez Melisa Menndez Alberto Luceo Raúl Medina Nicholas E. Graham 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(1):131-138
This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design. 相似文献
4.
One of the potential applications of polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data is the classification of land cover, such as forest canopies, vegetation, sea ice types, and urban areas. In contrast to single or dual polarized SAR systems, full polarimetric SAR systems provide more information about the physical and geometrical properties of the imaged area. This paper proposes a new Bayes risk function which can be minimized to obtain a Likelihood Ratio (LR) for the supervised classification of polarimetric SAR data. The derived Bayes risk function is based on the complex Wishart distribution. Furthermore, a new spatial criterion is incorporated with the LR classification process to produce more homogeneous classes. The application for Arctic sea ice mapping shows that the LR and the proposed spatial criterion are able to provide promising classification results. Comparison with classification results based on the Wishart classifier, the Wishart Likelihood Ratio Test Statistic (WLRTS) proposed by Conradsen et al. (2003) and the Expectation Maximization with Probabilistic Label Relaxation (EMPLR) algorithm are presented. High overall classification accuracy of selected study areas which reaches 97.8% using the LR is obtained. Combining the derived spatial criterion with the LR can improve the overall classification accuracy to reach 99.9%. In this study, fully polarimetric C-band RADARSAT-2 data collected over Franklin Bay, Canadian Arctic, is used. 相似文献
5.
Seema Mehra Parihar Soma Sarkar Amitava Dutta Shilpi Sharma Tanushree Dutta 《国际地球制图》2013,28(3):273-287
The East Kolkata Wetlands is a unique resource recovery system. The Ramsar Convention recognized it as a ‘Wetland of International Importance’ in August 2002. However, the long-term resource exploitation and land use changes in the dynamic ecosystem have resulted in non-linear environmental responses. This is an attempt using open source remote sensing datasets to capture the spatio-temporal transformation of the wetland resulting from various anthropogenic activities. Landsat MSS and TM imageries of 1973, 1980, 1989, 2001 and 2010 were classified using Maximum Likelihood Classifier to monitor the wetland change; however, to study wetland dynamics, the post-classification wetland change detection maps have been generated for two temporal phases, i.e. 1973–1989 and 1989–2010. This study finds that the area under wetlands has reduced comprehensively in the past 40 years due to the conversion of wetlands into various other uses such as urban expansion of the Kolkata metropolitan city. 相似文献
6.
In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations. 相似文献
7.
Víctor Leiva Antonio Sanhueza José M. Angulo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):299-307
In this article, we develop a new model based on the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution that results to be both useful and practical
for environmental sciences. The density, distribution and hazard functions, moments and properties of this new model are presented.
A graphical analysis of the density is also provided. Furthermore, we estimate parameters, propose asymptotic inference and
discuss influence diagnostics by using likelihood methods for the new distribution. An illustrative example with real data
related to water quality indicates the adequacy on the new distribution. 相似文献
8.
Ole F.?ChristensenEmail author G.?Cassiani P. J.?Diggle P. Ribeiro?Jr G.?Andreotti 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(5):339-350
Using monitored natural attenuation is an increasingly popular strategy for dealing with contaminated aquifers. This paper provides a statistical methodology for the estimation of the relative efficiency of natural attenuation mechanisms. The methodology provides estimates, with associated measures of uncertainty, of the relative efficiency of four types of bio-degradation (oxidation using oxygen as the electron-acceptor, denitrification, iron reduction and sulfate reduction). A data set from Trecate, Italy, is analysed using the methodology. The analysis shows that sulfate is the main cause of hydrocarbon removal on this site. It is also seen that oxidation using oxygen seems to be more preferential than the other reactions, in the sense that this reaction is relatively more efficient than other reactions at locations where the hydrocarbon concentration is low. 相似文献
9.
Physical and stochastic models of earthquake clustering 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
The phenomenon of earthquake clustering, i.e., the increase of occurrence probability for seismic events close in space and time to other previous earthquakes, has been modeled both by statistical and physical processes.From a statistical viewpoint the so-called epidemic model (ETAS) introduced by Ogata in 1988 and its variations have become fairly well known in the seismological community. Tests on real seismicity and comparison with a plain time-independent Poissonian model through likelihood-based methods have reliably proved their validity.On the other hand, in the last decade many papers have been published on the so-called Coulomb stress change principle, based on the theory of elasticity, showing qualitatively that an increase of the Coulomb stress in a given area is usually associated with an increase of seismic activity. More specifically, the rate-and-state theory developed by Dieterich in the ′90s has been able to give a physical justification to the phenomenon known as Omori law. According to this law, a mainshock is followed by a series of aftershocks whose frequency decreases in time as an inverse power law.In this study we give an outline of the above-mentioned stochastic and physical models, and build up an approach by which these models can be merged in a single algorithm and statistically tested. The application to the seismicity of Japan from 1970 to 2003 shows that the new model incorporating the physical concept of the rate-and-state theory performs not worse than the purely stochastic model with two free parameters only. The numerical results obtained in these applications are related to physical characters of the model as the stress change produced by an earthquake close to its edges and to the A and σ parameters of the rate-and-state constitutive law. 相似文献
10.
This paper addresses the application of a data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling approach using transfer function models (TFMs) with non‐linear rainfall filtering to predict runoff generation from a semi‐arid catchment (795 km2) in Tanzania. With DBM modelling, time series of rainfall and streamflow were allowed to suggest an appropriate model structure compatible with the data available. The model structures were evaluated by looking at how well the model fitted the data, and how well the parameters of the model were estimated. The results indicated that a parallel model structure is appropriate with a proportion of the runoff being routed through a fast flow pathway and the remainder through a slow flow pathway. Finally, the study employed a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology to evaluate the parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty based on the feasible parameter ranges chosen from the initial analysis of recession curves and calibration of the TFM. Results showed that parameters that control the slow flow pathway are relatively more sensitive than those that control the fast flow pathway of the hydrograph. Within the GLUE framework, it was found that multiple acceptable parameter sets give a range of predictions. This was found to be an advantage, since it allows the possibility of assessing the uncertainty in predictions as conditioned on the calibration data and then using that uncertainty as part of the decision‐making process arising from any rainfall‐runoff modelling project. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献