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分析了1900年以来长江3次巨洪的3个强信号：(1)太阳黑子活动，(2)厄尔尼诺事件，(3)青藏高原南部大震，它们对大气环流异常的影响分别称为日气作用、海气作用、地气作用，依据长江巨洪和3个强信号的基本事实，讨论了长江发生巨洪的统计规律，指出当3个强信号的出现时间互相重叠时，长江很可能发生巨洪，如果再叠加其它信号，长江发生巨洪的量级更大，这对长江巨洪的超长期预期具有重要的指示作用。 相似文献
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《African Journal of Marine Science》2013,35(1):453-461
Daily catches of Loligo vulgaris and the fishing effort of commercial beach-seiners operating along the coasts of the Thracian Sea were recorded between October 1994 and May 1995. Taking into account the spatial distribution of the ports, the squid fishing grounds and the daily activity of the beach-seiners, five coastal zones were determined for the monitoring of fishery data. Multivariate analysis failed to show significant differences between the monthly catch rate (cpue) in the zones. However, Loligo vulgaris cpue was clearly seasonal, with a distinct peak in November and an evident decline from winter to spring. Temperature, rainfall and local wind records were used in making a preliminary investigation into meteorological factors that may affect beach-seine catches of squid. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that temperature is a highly significant explanatory variable for cpue variation, whereas the intensity of the wind plays an important role, but mostly during winter. Rainfall was significantly related to variation in cpue in one zone. Cpue was generally negatively correlated with air temperature and rainfall. Most significant correlations of cpue with wind were also negative. 相似文献
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应用 １００ｈＰａ、５００ｈＰａ月平均高度资料、海温、射出长波辐射（ＯＬＲ）及武汉的气温 和降水资料,对１９９８年长江中游特大洪涝的成因作了总结分析．结果表明,冬春厄尔尼诺、副 热带高压和从春到初夏期间,印度洋－西太平洋赤道辐合带（ＩＴＣＺ）南侧积云对流的异常较 强,以及冬季雨雪异常偏多等气候特点,是有利于洪涝发生的强信号． 相似文献
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1997~89年冬季大气环流变化及中国近海海区天气气候特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
1997～98年发生了近百年最强的厄尔尼诺现象,本文对1997～98年冬季(12～2月)500hpa环流特征、东亚温带气旋活动及天气特征进行了分析．同时也对多年厄尔尼诺过程、非厄尔尼诺过程相对应的大气环流及天气特征做了对比分析．研究表明,厄尔尼诺年北半球500hpa环流30°N以南低纬地区位势高度偏高中纬度的槽脊分布与多年平均有较大不同,东亚大相偏弱,同时北美大槽减弱,北太平洋高压也减弱,西风环流指数偏强,西太平洋副热带高压西伸明显,强度偏强。中国东部沿海气旋分布特征为北部偏少,南部明显偏多;降水为东部沿海地区偏多明显;气温为南部海区出现高温的机率较大。 相似文献
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可公度性表示自然界事物之间的一种秩序。利用可公度性的原理和方法,对厄尔尼诺事件的长期变化过程进行了预报分析,其结果是比较好的,这对防灾减灾具有重要的实际意义。 相似文献
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根据对厄尔尼诺事件、太阳黑子活动与浙江丰水年关系的分析,得出了浙江丰水年的统计预报模式：（１）在春季型厄尔北诺事件的当年和夏季型厄尔尼诺事件的次年,浙江年径流量的距平一般都大于零;（２）厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过５月１日,那么次年浙江年径流量的距平一般都大于零;（３）厄尔尼诺事件的强度越大,对浙江丰水年的影响也越大;（４）在太阳黑子活动２２年磁周期转变年前后的厄尔尼诺事件的次年,浙江年径流量的距 相似文献
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We present an analysis of the Hipparcos and ASAS photometry of the W UMa star EL Aqr. The Wilson-Devinney code is employed
in conjunction with recent spectroscopic mass ratio of 0.203 to model the V band light curve. We confirm that the system is
an A type contact binary however our analysis suggests that it is over massive for its spectral class and has a relatively
high fillout of 44%.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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Gas adsorption isotherms of Akabira coals were established for pure carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrogen (N2). Experimental data fit well into the Langmuir model. The ratio of sorption capacity of CO2, CH4, and N2 is 8.5:3.5:1 at a lower pressure (1.2 MPa) regime and becomes 5.5:2:1 when gas pressure increases to 6.0 MPa. The difference in sorption capacity of these three gases is explained by differences in the density of the three gases with increasing pressure. A coal–methane system partially saturated with CH4 at 2.4 MPa adsorption pressure was experimentally studied. Desorption behavior of CH4 by injecting pure CO2 (at 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0 MPa), and by injecting the CO2–N2 mixture and pure N2 (at 3.0 and 6.0 MPa) were evaluated. Results indicate that the preferential sorption property of coal for CO2 is significantly higher than that for CH4 or N2. CO2 injection can displace almost all of the CH4 adsorbed on coal. When modeling the CH4–CO2 binary and CH2–CO2–N2 ternary adsorption system by using the extended Langmuir (EL) equation, the EL model always over-predicted the sorbed CO2 value with a lower error, while under-predicting the sorbed CH4 with a higher error. A part of CO2 may dissolve into the solid organic structure of coal, besides its competitive adsorption with other gases. According to this explanation, the EL coefficients of CO2 in EL equation were revised. The revised EL model proved to be very accurate in predicting sorbed ratio of multi-component gases on coals. 相似文献
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本文利用近４５年的水灾害资料，通过对海—气耦合事件与特定区域的旱灾发生年份的统计分析，发现了在半干旱区（０．６）Ｋ≥０．３）东部，即昭乌达盟、哲里木盟的干旱年与厄尔尼诺年份存在着较好的遥相关，这对研究本区的旱情进行超长期预报有重要意义。 相似文献