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The CAESAR (Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope And River) model is used to simulate the Holocene development of a small upland catchment (4·2 km2) and the alluvial fan at its base. The model operates at a 3 m grid scale and simulates every flood over the last 9200 years, using a rainfall record reconstructed from peat bog wetness indices and land cover history derived from palynological sources. Model results show that the simulated catchment sediment discharge above the alluvial fan closely follows the climate signal, but with an increase in the amplitude of response after deforestation. The important effects of sediment storage and remobilization are shown, and findings suggest that soil creep rates may be an important control on long term (>1000 years) temperate catchment sediment yield. The simulated alluvial fan shows a complex and episodic behaviour, with frequent avulsions across the fan surface. However, there appears to be no clear link between fan response and climate or land use changes suggesting that Holocene alluvial fan dynamics may be the result of phases of sediment storage and remobilization, or instabilities and thresholds within the fan itself. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Cellular modelling of river catchments and reaches: Advantages, limitations and prospects 总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2
The last decade has witnessed the development of a series of cellular models that simulate the processes operating within river channels and drive their geomorphic evolution. Their proliferation can be partly attributed to the relative simplicity of cellular models and their ability to address some of the shortcomings of other numerical models. By using relaxed interpretations of the equations determining fluid flow, cellular models allow rapid solutions of water depths and velocities. These can then be used to drive (usually) conventional sediment transport relations to determine erosion and deposition and alter the channel form. The key advance of using these physically based yet simplified approaches is that they allow us to apply models to a range of spatial scales (1–100 km2) and time periods (1–100 years) that are especially relevant to contemporary management and fluvial studies.However, these approaches are not without their limitations and technical problems. This paper reviews the findings of nearly 10 years of research into modelling fluvial systems with cellular techniques, principally focusing on improvements in routing water and how fluvial erosion and deposition (including lateral erosion) are represented. These ideas are illustrated using sample simulations of the River Teifi, Wales. A detailed case study is then presented, demonstrating how cellular models can explore the interactions between vegetation and the morphological dynamics of the braided Waitaki River, New Zealand. Finally, difficulties associated with model validation and the problems, prospects and future issues important to the further development and application of these cellular fluvial models are outlined. 相似文献
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Using a landform evolution model to study ephemeral gullying in agricultural fields: the effects of rainfall patterns on ephemeral gully dynamics 
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下载免费PDF全文 Water driven soil erosion is a major cause of land degradation worldwide. Ephemeral gullies (EGs) are considered key contributors to agricultural catchment soil loss. Despite their importance, the parameters and drivers controlling EG dynamics have not been adequately quantified. Here we investigate the effects of rainfall characteristics on EGs, using the physically based landform evolution model (LEM) CAESAR‐Lisflood. An initial goal of this study was to test the feasibility of using a LEM to estimate EG dynamics based on an easily obtainable and moderate spatial resolution (2 × 2 m) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). EG evolution was simulated for two rainfall seasons in a 0.37 km2 agricultural plot situated in a semiarid catchment in central Israel. The 2014 rainfall season was used to calibrate the model and the 2015 season was used for validation. The model overall well predicted the EG network structure and average depth but tended to underestimate the EG length. The effects of rainfall characteristics on EG dynamics were investigated by comparing simulations employing seven rainfall scenarios. Four of these scenarios differ in their overall rainfall volume relative to observed precipitation (+20%, +10%, ?10%, ?20%). The remaining three scenarios vary in the temporal distribution of rainfall during each storm, allowing us to isolate the effect of rainfall intensity on EG evolution. The results show that: (1) EG dynamics strongly correlated with changes in rainfall volume; (2) small‐scale morphological behavior varies between rainfall scenarios, resulting in different meandering and connectivity variability; (3) EG evolution is divided into two main stages, an initial rapid development occurring after the first two weeks of the rainy season, followed by a stable development period; (4) a 12 mm h?1 intensity threshold was observed to initiate and, later, modify EGs; and (5) inner storm rainfall variability can have a considerable effect on EG evolution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Intrinsic and extrinsic forces on the catchment and stream channel network drive morphological change. Separating individual forcings is difficult given the complexity of such nonlinear systems. Here a modelling approach is used to investigate the sensitivity of channel position and movement under a series of realistic rainfall scenarios for a catchment in southeastern Australia. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of the catchment to different rainfall patterns and how relatively small changes in rainfall can lead to much larger sediment outputs revealing sensitivity to subtle changes in climate. Channel movement occurs as an avulsion. This is the first time such a process has been observed and modelled in an ephemeral stream environment and demonstrates fluvial geomorphic change at human time scales. Human intervention by rock lining channels was demonstrated to prevent the movement of the main channel. Overall the CAESAR landscape evolution and erosion model used in this study is able to replicate both erosion rates and the variation in past channel movement. The modelling suggests that any landscape change is based on both internal and external forcing and that landscape history also plays a significant role. Here, we demonstrate the potential to quantify many of the nonlinearities and thresholds in soil‐mantled catchments using a landscape evolution model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Tom J. Coulthard Jeff C. Neal Paul D. Bates Jorge Ramirez Gustavo A. M. de Almeida Greg R. Hancock 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(15):1897-1906
Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the geomorphic development of river basins over long time periods and large space scales (100s–1000s of years, 100s of km2). Due to these scales they have been developed with simple steady flow models that enable long time steps (e.g. years) to be modelled, but not shorter term hydrodynamic effects (e.g. the passage of a flood wave). Nonsteady flow models that incorporate these hydrodynamic effects typically require far shorter time steps (seconds or less) and use more expensive numerical solutions hindering their inclusion in LEMs. The recently developed LISFLOOD‐FP simplified 2D flow model addresses this issue by solving a reduced form of the shallow water equations using a very simple numerical scheme, thus generating a significant increase in computational efficiency over previous hydrodynamic methods. This leads to potential convergence of computational cost between LEMs and hydrodynamic models, and presents an opportunity to combine such schemes. This paper outlines how two such models (the LEM CAESAR and the hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD‐FP) were merged to create the new CAESAR‐Lisflood model, and through a series of preliminary tests shows that using a hydrodynamic model to route flow in an LEM affords many advantages. The new model is fast, computationally efficient and has a stronger physical basis than a previous version of the CAESAR model. For the first time it allows hydrodynamic effects (tidal flows, lake filling, alluvial fans blocking valley floor) to be represented in an LEM, as well as producing noticeably different results to steady flow models. This suggests that the simplification of using steady flow in existing LEMs may bias their findings significantly. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Quantifying fluvial non linearity and finding self organized criticality? Insights from simulations of river basin evolution 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A numerical study was undertaken to investigate non linearity and the potential for self-organized criticality (SOC) in the evolution of river basins. Twenty-three simulations were carried out, using the authors' CAESAR landscape evolution model, in which the magnitude of storm events, variability of storm events, sediment heterogeneity, sources of sediment supply, and catchment morphology are systematically varied to evaluate their importance as possible drivers for non linear behavior and SOC.Temporal fluctuations in simulated sediment yield show notable non linear behavior. Storm magnitude and occurrence of landslides appear to have little impact on variability of the sediment yield, when compared to the impacts of sediment heterogeneity, rainfall variability and catchment morphology. Particularly, it appears that the non linearity of sediment yields results from the manner in which the catchment processes the variable rainfall, rather than just the rainfall variability itself.The variations in sediment yield show a power law magnitude–frequency distribution, which is a possible, but inconclusive, indicator of SOC. However, several other, more qualitative arguments can be made to support the case for SOC in these simulations. Specifically, we identify the nature of the critical state and suggest two cascade mechanisms by which the system can organize itself around this critical state. Combined, these arguments indicate that simulated evolution of river basins indeed exhibits SOC, at least with respect to sediment yield. The critical state appears to be an indicator of the connectivity of the drainage network. Thus, the simulations indicate that, unlike traditional SOC systems, the critical state of the system can vary in time, as sudden changes in drainage network connectivity may result in sudden changes in the SOC behavior of the system. 相似文献
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Landscape evolution models provide a way to determine erosion rates and landscape stability over times scales from tens to thousands of years. The SIBERIA and CAESAR landscape evolution models both have the capability to simulate catchment–wide erosion and deposition over these time scales. They are both cellular, operate over a digital elevation model of the landscape, and represent fluvial and slope processes. However, they were initially developed to solve research questions at different time and space scales and subsequently the perspective, detail and process representation vary considerably between the models. Notably, CAESAR simulates individual events with a greater emphasis on fluvial processes whereas SIBERIA averages erosion rates across annual time scales. This paper describes how both models are applied to Tin Camp Creek, Northern Territory, Australia, where soil erosion rates have been closely monitored over the last 10 years. Results simulating 10 000 years of erosion are similar, yet also pick up subtle differences that indicate the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two models. The results from both the SIBERIA and CAESAR models compare well with independent field data determined for the site over different time scales. Representative hillslope cross‐sections are very similar between the models. Geomorphologically there was little difference between the modelled catchments after 1000 years but significant differences were revealed at longer simulation times. Importantly, both models show that they are sensitive to input parameters and that hydrology and erosion parameter derivation has long‐term implications for sediment transport prediction. Therefore selection of input parameters is critical. This study also provides a good example of how different models may be better suited to different applications or research questions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Commonwealth of Australia 相似文献
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