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A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified Mw magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations
for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is
performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying
the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84%
fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s2 for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s2) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s2) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I0 = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps
show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about
1.5 m/s2), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s2) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s2) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s2 and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and
50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen. 相似文献
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Stefano Parolai Gottfried Grünthal Rutger Wahlstrm 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2007,27(1):49-59
Seismic noise was measured at some 20 sites in the Cologne area (Germany) aligned nearly perpendicular to a graben structure. The H/V spectral noise ratio for each site was used to derive realistic S-wave velocity profiles down to the bedrock by means of a genetic algorithm inversion. Numerical simulations were performed for different combinations of source and propagation path parameters: focal depth, epicentral distance, attenuation and fault mechanism. Synthetic seismograms were produced and converted to Fourier and response spectra. Finally, the site-specific values from response spectral ratios, with their uncertainties, were used to modify attenuation functions entering the logic-tree algorithm of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The site-specific response spectra show the significance of taking into account the local S-wave velocity structure in PSHA. 相似文献
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Long‐term heating of shallow urban aquifers is observed worldwide. Our measurements in the city of Cologne, Germany revealed that the groundwater temperatures found in the city centre are more than 5 K higher than the undisturbed background. To explore the role of groundwater flow for the development of subsurface urban heat islands, a numerical flow and heat transport model is set up, which describes the hydraulic conditions of Cologne and simulates the transient evolution of thermal anomalies in the urban ground. A main focus is on the influence of horizontal groundwater flow, groundwater recharge and trends in local ground warming. To examine heat transport in groundwater, a scenario consisting of a local hot spot with a length of 1 km of long‐term ground heating was set up in the centre of the city. Groundwater temperature‐depth profiles at upstream, central and downstream locations of this hot spot are inspected. The simulation results indicate that the main thermal transport mechanisms are long‐term vertical conductive heat input, horizontal advection and transverse dispersion. Groundwater recharge rates in the city are low (<100 mm a?1) and thus do not significantly contribute to heat transport into the urban aquifer. With groundwater flow, local vertical temperature profiles become very complex and are hard to interpret, if local flow conditions and heat sources are not thoroughly known. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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