A New Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis Algorithm Accounting for Bounded Data Errors     

P. Nivlet  F. Fournier  J. J. Royer 《Mathematical Geology》2002,34(2):223-246

In a statistical pattern recognition context, discriminant analysis is designed to classify, when possible, objects into predefined categories. Because this method requires precise input data, uncertainties cannot be propagated in the classifying process. In real case studies, this could lead to drastic misinterpretations of objects. A new nonparametric algorithm based on interval arithmetic has thus been developed to propagate interval-form data. They consist in calculating interval conditional probability density functions and interval posterior probabilities. Objects are eventually assigned to a subset of classes, consistent with the data and their uncertainties. The classifying model is thus less precise, but more realistic than the standard one, which we prove on a real case study.  相似文献   

Logs Fluid Typing Methods and Adaptive Analysis of Tight Sandstone Reservoir of Yingcheng Formation in Lishu Fault     

Mao Keyu 《地球科学进展》2016,31(10):1056-1066

Tight clastic reservoirs are characterized with low porosity and low permeability, which reduce contributions of reservoir fluids to geophysical logging responses, and it is more difficult to identify fluids of the reservoir. Therefore, it is necessary to study log interpretation and comprehensive evaluation methods for such clastic reservoirs. This study focused on geological characteristics of tight clastic reservoir of Yingcheng formation in Lishu Fault. Based on logs sensitivity to fluids, some fluid typing methods were discussed in detail, which included log curve overlap method, acoustic time overlapping method from density and neutron logs, porosity difference and ratio method, porosity-resistivity crossplot, normal distribution method, and other methods, and some effective fluid evaluation method were established and optimized. These above-mentioned methods were verified, which could achieve layer qualitative identification of tight sandstone in the study area. By contrast, two logs overlapping methods, porosity difference and ratio method, resistivity-porosity crossplot are more suitable for natural gas reservoirs, while porosity difference and ratio method, porosity-resistivity chart, normal distribution method are more suitable for oil and water reservoirs. The case study suggests that these methods be combined to archive more correct log interpretation in the study area, which provides important decision-making reference for oilfield exploration and development.  相似文献   

Tectonically-driven mud volcanism since the late Pliocene on the Calabrian accretionary prism,central Mediterranean Sea     

D. Praeg  S. Ceramicola  R. Barbieri  V. Unnithan  N. Wardell 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2009

Mud volcanoes recently discovered on the offshore Calabrian Arc are investigated at two sites 60 km apart, in water depths of 1650--2300 m, using swath bathymetry, 2D&3D multichannel seismic and cores. The seabed and subsurface data provide information on their formation and functioning in relation to tectonic activity during the rapid Plio-Quaternary advance of the accretionary prism. Fore-arc extension and thrust-belt compression are seen to have involved two main phases of activity, separated by a regional unconformity recording a mid-Pliocene (3.5–3.0 Ma) tectonic reorganization. The two sites of mud volcanism lie in contrasting tectonic settings (inner fore-arc basin vs central fold-and-thrust belt) and record differing forms of seabed extrusive activity (twin mud cones and a caldera vs a broad mud pie). At both sites, subsurface data show that mud volcanism took place throughout the second tectonic phase, since the late Pliocene; differing forms of mud extrusion were accompanied by subsidence to form depressions beneath and within extrusive edifices up to 1.5 km thick. The basal subsidence depressions point to sources within the succession of thrusts underlying the inner to central Arc, consistent with microfossils within cored mud breccias from both sites that are derived from strata as old as Late Cretaceous.  相似文献   

1992年美国加州兰德斯地震——地壳结构不均匀性对地震发生的影响   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

田有  赵大鹏  孙若昧  滕吉文 《地球物理学报》2007,50(5):1488-1496

为了理解地震的发生和地壳结构不均匀性的关系,利用南加州地震台网的固定台和临时台所记录的2863个兰德斯余震和区域地震,共计107401个P波和19624个S波高质量的到时数据,采用地震层析成像方法得到了兰德斯地震区P波和S波的精细的三维速度结构和泊松比分布．结果显示,地震的发生和分布与地壳结构的横向不均匀性有密切的关系．总体上看,兰德斯地震区余震成丛分布,并被低速块体截断,其中4级以上地震大多分布于P波高、低速异常过渡区域或偏向高速块体一侧,这可能是因为高速区多属地壳脆性介质,易于造成应力集中,导致地震;反之,低速度区则可能代表破碎程度较高、富含流体或温度较高区域,因而更倾向于产生无震变形．基于兰德斯地震区强震震源位置、地震区P波、S波速度异常与泊松比分布推断,兰德斯地震区可能有流体存在．地壳流体易使地壳岩石弱化,从而引发大地震．  相似文献   

Fluid ascent through the solid lithosphere and its relation to earthquakes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Thomas Gold  Steven Soter 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(2-4):492-530

The Earth is continuously expelling gases and liquids from great depths—juvenile volatiles from the mantle and recycled metamorphic products. Some of these fluids ascend through liquid rock in volcanic processes, but others utilize fractures and faults as conduits through the solid lithosphere. The latter process may have a major influence on earthquakes, since fluids at near lithostatic pressures appear to be required to activate deep faults that would otherwise remain locked.Fluids can be driven upward through solid rock by buoyancy, but only if present in sufficient concentration to form large-scale domains occupying interconnected fracture porosity. A growing fluid domain becomes so mobilized only when it attains the critical vertical dimension required for hydrostatic instability. This dimension, depending on the ultimate compressive yield strength of the rock, may be as much as several kilometers.Any column of fluid ascending through fractures in the solid lithosphere from a prolific deep source must become organized into a vertical sequence of discrete domains, separated by fluid-pressure discontinuities. This is required because a continuous hydrostatic-fluid-pressure profile extending from an arbitrarily deep source to the surface cannot be permitted by the finite strength of rock. A vertically stacked sequence of domains allows the internal fluid-pressure profile to approximate the external rock-stress profile in a stepwise fashion. The pressure discontinuity below the base of the uppermost hydrostatic domain may be responsible for some occurrences of so-called anomalous geopressures. An ascending stream of fluid that percolates upward from a deep source through a column of domains must encounter a sequence of abrupt pressure decreases at the transitions between successive domains. If supercritical gases act as solvents, the dissolved substances may drop out of solution at such pressure discontinuities, resulting in a local concentration of minerals and other substances.At great depths, brittle fracture would normally be prevented by high pressure and temperature, with all excessive stress discharged by ductile flow. Rock strata invaded by an ascending fluid domain are weakened, however, because cracks generated or reactivated by the high-pressure fluid can support the overburden, greatly reducing internal friction. This reduction of strength may cause a previously stressed rock to fail, resulting in hydraulic shear fracture. Thus, earthquakes may be triggered by the buoyant migration of deep-source fluids.The actual timing of the failure that leads to such an earthquake may be determined by the relatively rapid inflation of a fluid domain and not by any significant increase in the probably much slower rate of regional tectonic strain. Many earthquake precursory phenomena may be secondary symptoms of an increase in pore-fluid pressure, and certain coseismic phenomena may result from the venting of high-pressure fluids when faults break the surface. Instabilities in the migration of such fluid domains may also contribute to or cause the eruption of mud volcanoes, magma volcanoes, and kimberlite pipes.  相似文献   

Velocities of elastic waves andv P/v S ratios in dry and water-saturated rock samples at high pressure     

M. P. Volarovich  V. A. Budnikov 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,117(4):795-805

Elastic wave velocities and the ratiov _P/v _S were studied for dry and initially saturated samples of carbonate and crystalline rocks at pressures to 2 kbar. In initially saturated samplesv _P increases in crystalline rock, whereas in sedimentary rock it may either increase or decrease with increasing pressure. Under the same conditionsv _S remains approximately constant in crystalline rocks and decreases in sedimentary samples. The ratiov _P/v _S as a function of pressure increases in dry rocks and decreases in saturated ones. Saturated samples always have higherv _P/v _S ratios than dry ones. It appears that the geometry of the pore space influences the acoustic properties of saturated crystalline rocks.  相似文献   

Paragenesis of fluids under evaporates in the Volga-Ural Basin     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2015

To unravel the mystery of the relationship between evaporates, Ca–Cl brines and accumulations of oil and N₂ in the basins of ancient cratons, their N₂, CH₄ and He concentration ratios, as well as the isotopic composition (δ¹⁵N, δ¹³C and ³He/⁴He) were compared within the Volga-Ural basin. The study allowed subsalt fluids from Volga-Ural Basin to divide into two genetic groups. The first one is found within the basin's platform area. It includes Ca–Cl brines, high-viscosity heavy oil, bitumen and N₂, which has concentrations higher than that of CH₄ and positive values of δ¹⁵N. The second one is tied to the edge of the platform, the Ural Foredeep and Peri-Caspian Depression. In this group, only the oil and gas reservoirs, which have more CH₄ than N₂, and possibly negative values of δ¹⁵N, were discovered. Interaction of gas components in compared fluids indicates great role of degassing in the formation of their composition. It is suggested that the fluids of the first group (N₂ > CH₄) is what remains, and the second group (N₂ < CH₄) is what is disappears from the rocks during their metamorphism and degassing.  相似文献   

An insight into crack density,saturation rate,and porosity model of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in the stable continental region of western India     

《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2014

The 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.6) source zone is examined in the light of crack density (ε), saturation rate (ξ) and porosity parameter (ψ) using new data set derived from a large aftershock sequence recorded by the Gujarat seismic network (GSNet) during November, 2006–December, 2009. Processes of rupture initiations of the mainshock and its aftershock sequence are better understood by synthesizing the dynamic snapshots of the source zone using the new dataset. Pattern of crustal heterogeneities associated with high-ε, high-ξ and high-ψ anomalies at depths varying from 20 km to 25 km is similar to those of earlier study by Mishra and Zhao (2003). The anomalous zone is found extended distinctly by 50–60 km in the lateral direction, indicating the reinforcement of cracks and fractured volume of rock matrix due to long aftershock sequence since 2001 Bhuj earthquake in the source area. It is inferred that the presence of a fluid-filled fractured rock matrix with super saturation may have affected the structural and seismogenic strengths of the source zone and is still contributing significantly to the geneses of earthquakes in and around the source zone. Anomalous pattern of high-ε with wider distribution of high-ξ indicates the existence of micro-cracks in the lower crust, while high-ψ suggests the cementation of cracks through permeation of residual magma/metamorphic fluids into the hypocenter zone. The results suggest that the existence of residual fluids in the fractured rock matrix in the mid to lower crust might have played a key role in triggering the 2001 mainshock and is still responsible for its continued long aftershock sequences.  相似文献   

Meteorology in Canada: A reaction to the rose report     

K. D. Hage 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):8-14

The methods used in an earlier study focusing on the province of Ontario, Canada, were adapted for this current study to expand the study area over eastern Canada where the infrastructure is at risk of being impacted by freezing rain. To estimate possible impacts of climate change on future freezing rain events, a three-step process was used in the study: (1) statistical downscaling, (2) synoptic weather typing, and (3) future projections. A regression-based downscaling approach, constructed using different regression methods for different meteorological variables, was used to downscale the outputs of eight general circulation models to each of 42 hourly observing stations over eastern Canada. Using synoptic weather typing (principal components analysis, a clustering procedure, discriminant function analysis), the freezing rain-related weather types under historical climate (1958–2007) and future downscaled climate conditions (2016–2035, 2046–2065, 2081–2100) were identified for all selected stations. The potential changes in the frequency of future daily freezing rain events can be projected quantitatively by comparing future and historical frequencies of freezing rain-related weather types.

The modelled results show that eastern Canada could experience more freezing rain events late this century during the coldest months (i.e., December to February) than the averaged historical conditions. Conversely, during the warmest months of the study season (i.e., November and April in the southern regions, October in the northern regions), eastern Canada could experience less freezing rain events late this century. The increase in the number of daily freezing rain events in the future for the coldest months is projected to be progressively greater from south to north or from southwest to northeast across eastern Canada. The relative decrease in magnitude of future daily freezing rain events in the warmest months is projected to be much less than the relative increase in magnitude in the coldest months.  相似文献   

基于模糊聚类分型的数值产品暴雨预报释用方法   总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1  

严明良  王锰  于波  范淦清 《气象科学》2008,28(5):581-585

本文阐述了一种基于数值产品的预报信息场的暴雨预报释用方法,提出了对暴雨历史样本形势场使用模糊聚类的客观分型技术,用条件概率让小概率事件成为相对的大概率,更有利于暴雨指标的提炼;该释用方法包含的信息量全面,以历史暴雨样本同期的包含大气三维空间压、温、湿、风及其释演的物理量,构建出25个数值产品参数指标作为鉴别暴雨的基础,同时也勾划出各暴雨型发生期大气高温、高湿、对流不稳定等机理结构特征,且均有具体物理量数据表述.预报方法的研究过程中探索了某些物理量场预报暴雨落区的规律;建立了暴雨预报工具,充分利用了现有业务中的质量较好的预报产品设立预报工具的起报条件,减少了暴雨空报率.  相似文献