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高空大气温度变化趋势不确定性的研究进展 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
IPCC第4次评估报告指出：近50年来,全球对流层温度趋于升高、平流层趋于下降;同时强调了研究结果中普遍存在的不确定性,造成不确定性的主要原因是原始资料、台站选取和不同均一化方法。从理论基础入手,系统地总结了国内、外近年来高空大气温度长期变化趋势的研究成果及其不确定性产生的主要原因,详细介绍了高空大气温度序列的质量控制和均一化方法,并对我国探空台站温度序列的不确定性进行了探讨。利用静力学方法进行质量控制,以最大资料缺测率30%作为序列取舍标准,用两相回归法和再分析序列均一化处理116个中国探空站高空温度序列。研究结果表明,1958年以来我国对流层中低层趋于升温,其中1980年以后升温尤为明显;而平流层下层显示降温。
相似文献
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This article presents a micromechanical approach to the problem of unsaturated water flow in heterogeneous porous media in
transient conditions. The numerical formulation is based on the two-scale model obtained previously by periodic homogenization.
It allows for a coupled solution of the non-linear flow equations at macroscopic and microscopic scales and takes into account
the macroscopic anisotropy of the medium and the local non-equilibrium of the capillary pressure. The model was applied to
simulate two-dimensional water infiltration at constant flux into an initially dry medium containing inclusions of square
and rectangular shapes. The numerical results showed the influence of the inclusion–matrix conductivity ratio and the local
geometry on the macroscopic behavior. The influence of the conductivity ratio manifested itself by the acceleration or retardation
of the onset of the macroscopic water flux at the outlet, while the local geometry (anisotropy) significantly affected the
macroscopic spatial distribution of the water flux. Such type of approach can be extended to simulate coupled phenomena (for
example hydro-mechanical problems) with evolving local geometry. 相似文献
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利用RHtest软件结合台站元数据对广州1908—2019年平均气温进行非均一性检验和订正,结果显示在1912、1928、1942、1988、1995、2004和2010年有7个显著的非均一间断点,订正后升温速率为1.39℃/(100 a),较订正前显著增加,具有准50 a和准3 a的显著周期。运用DB16正交小波分析其多时间尺度变化特征,结果显示方差贡献最大的是趋势分量,其次是准3 a和准6 a周期分量。趋势分量从20世纪40年代开始呈现持续的升温趋势;20世纪80年代中期至20世纪末的快速增暖是准50 a和准20 a周期分量的上升期叠加于趋势分量的结果;1998—2014年增暖停滞特征是准50 a、准20 a和准10 a这3个年代际周期分量的降温位相叠加在趋势分量上引起的。 相似文献
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Y. Ichikawa K. Kawamura M. Nakano K. Kitayama T. Seiki N. Theramast 《Engineering Geology》2001,60(1-4):127-138
Bentonite clay is a micro-inhomogeneous material, which consists of clay minerals (mainly montmorillonite), macro-grains (mainly quartz), water, air and others. Properties of the saturated bentonite clay are essentially characterized by the montmorillonite and water (i.e. montmorillonite hydrate). We analyze the molecular behavior of sodium montmorillonite hydrate Na1/3Al2[Si11/3Al1/3]O10(OH)2·nH2O by applying a molecular dynamics (MD) simulation method. And by using the MD results we calculate the swelling property of the montmorillonite hydrate, and compare with an experimental result. Next, by using the same MD procedure we treat a montmorillonite mineral with a large number of external water molecules to check the properties of the water. Here we treat pure- and salt-water. Then we calculate the diffusivity and viscosity of water molecules and Na+ and Cl− ions.
For extending the microscopic characteristics of constituent materials to a macroscopic seepage behavior of the micro-inhomogeneous material we apply a homogenization analysis (HA). That is, starting with the Navier–Stokes equation with distributed viscosity that is calculated by the former MD procedure we determine macroscopic permeability characteristics of bentonite for both cases of pure- and salt-water. Then, by using the permeability property we calculate long-term consolidation behavior of buffering clay, which is planed to be used for high-level radioactive waste (HLRW) management. Here the deformation is treated under the well-defined Cam clay model. 相似文献
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内陆盐湖石盐流体包裹体均—温度指示意义的现代过程研究 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
Halite precipitation with water and air temperature was observed in detail, and homogenization temperature of fluid inclusions in halite formed in ancient and modem Chaka Salt Lake was studied. Halite precipitates mainly in August every year and largely precipitates between 13 and 15pm at one day when water temperatures reach 20℃ but can seldom reach 30℃. Homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions in halite formed in Chaka Salt Lake range from 14℃ to 38℃ with an average of 23.7℃. The number of inclusions appears an obvious peak value at homogenization temperatures between 18 - 25℃, which probably represent the water temperature in which halite mainly precipitates when water temperatures reach 20℃. Therefore, homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions in halite formed in Chaka Salt Lake can wall reflect the water temperature. 相似文献
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四川甘洛赤普铅锌矿床流体包裹体特征及成矿机制初步探讨 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6
赤普铅锌矿床位于扬子地台西南缘川滇黔成矿区内,是川滇黔地区重要的铅锌矿床之一.通过野外和显微镜下观察,将成矿期形成的石英划分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ三个阶段.本次选取了21件样品进行研究,对保存于石英、闪锌矿及硅化白云石中的原生包裹体进行的详细研究,赤普铅锌矿床中包裹体类型相对较为单一,以气液包裹体为主.Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ阶段石英中流体包裹体均一温度和盐度范围分别为:230℃～270℃和2.74～19.68wt%(NaCl),150℃～200℃和3.71～16.99wt%(NaCI)和180℃～220℃和0.70～16.15wt%(NaCl)三个区间.主成矿阶段的闪锌矿流体包裹体的均一温度和盐度范围为127℃～210℃和4.34%～22.17%(NaCl).该矿床成矿流体均一温度和盐度范围主要在130℃～200℃和8.5%～17.0%(NaCl)之间,属于低温、中等盐度铅锌矿床.成矿流体为H2O-NaCl-CaCl2体系;成矿过程中成矿流体始终处于相对还原环境.成矿物质来源于上地壳,成矿流体主要来自围岩地层;成矿机制可能为含金属和舍还原硫流体混合成矿.该矿床应归属于密西西比型铅锌矿床. 相似文献
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利用1960~2015年京津冀地区88个国家级气象站观测资料（包括日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日降水、日平均风速等）,使用MASH（Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization）方法剔除台站迁址、仪器变更等因素所致偏差后,生成均一化的观测资料集。基于新资料集计算了各站气温、降水和凤速序列的线性趋势和Morlet小波等统计特征,分析了京津冀地区气候变化格局。结果表明:MASH方法能较准确地检测并校订观测序列中迁站、仪器变更等因素所导致的非均一性;1960~2015年期间京津冀年平均气温显著上升,上升幅度为0.261℃/10 a;降水减少,平均减少11.27 mm/10 a;风速显著减小,平均减小0.193 m s-1（10 a）-1。 相似文献
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Data generated from scanning electron microscopy images of oil-shale geomaterials are used to generate configurations and to acquire parameters required for use in homogenization schemes for the determination of the effective elastic properties of the samples. Two alternative homogenization methods are employed: numerical simulation using the Discrete Element Method and the Polycrystalline Self-Consistent Method from micromechanics. The schemes give rise to predictions of the effective elastic properties that are in very good agreement. 相似文献