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1.
The state of land subsidence and prediction approaches due to groundwater withdrawal in China 总被引:13,自引:6,他引:7
This article gives a general introduction to land subsidence with the prediction approaches due to withdrawal of groundwater
in three subsided/subsiding regions in China: the deltaic plain of Yangtse River (YRDP), North China Plain (NCP), and Fenwei
Plain (FP). On YRDP, Shanghai is the typical subsided/subsiding city; on NCP Tianjin is the typical subsided/subsiding city,
and on FP Taiyuan is the typical subsided/subsiding city. The subsided area with subsidence over 200 mm on YRDP is about 10,000 km2 and the maximum subsided value reached 2.9 m at Shanghai; on NCP the subsided area reached 60,000 km2 with the maximum subsidence of 3.9 m at Tianjing; on FP the subsided area is relatively smaller than that on the other two
plains and is about 1,135 km2 with maximum subsidence of 3.7 m at Taiyuan city. In order to protect the civil and industrial facilities, it is necessary
to predict the future development of land subsidence based on present state. Many researchers proposed several approaches
to predict the land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal according to different geological conditions and groundwater
withdrawal practice. This article classifies these approaches into five categories: (i) statistical methods; (ii) 1D numerical
method; (iii) quasi-3D seepage model; (iv) 3D seepage model; (v) fully coupled 3D model. In China, the former four categories
are presently employed in the prediction practice and their merits and demerits are discussed. According to the prediction
practice, 3D seepage model is the best method presently. 相似文献
2.
Many formulations have been developed so far to predict the wave height and period from fetch length and wind blowing duration for a constant wind speed. This study aimed to predict wave parameters from fetch length and meteorological factors by using triple diagram methodology based on Kriging principles. Proposed model results were compared with Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) model which is used so commonly in the ocean and coastal engineering studies. For the implementation of the methodology hourly wave and wind data were obtained from a buoy located in Lake Ontario. Numerical and graphical comparisons demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms the classical formulation. 相似文献
3.
Deterministic sea-wave prediction (DSWP) models are appearing in the literature designed for quiescent interval prediction in marine applications dominated by large swell seas. The approach has focused upon spectral methods which are straightforward and intuitively attractive. However, such methods have the disadvantage that while the sea is aperiodic in nature, the standard discrete spectral processing techniques force an absolutely periodic structure onto the resulting sea surface prediction models. As it is the shape of the sea surface that is important in such applications, particularly near the end of the domain which is important, the standard windowing techniques used in signal processing work to reduce leakage artifacts cannot be employed. This has necessitated the use of end matching methods that can be both inconvenient and may reduce the fraction of the time for which legitimate predictions are available. As a result, an investigation has been undertaken of the use of finite impulse response prediction filters to provide the necessary dispersive phase shifting required in DSWP systems. The present work examines the theoretical basis for such filters and explores their properties together with their application to both long and short crested swell seas. It is shown that wide band forms of such filters are only convergent in the sense of distributions having both infinite duration impulse responses and asymptotically divergent first derivatives. However, appropriate band limitation can produce useful finite impulse responses allowing implementation via standard discrete convolution methods. It is demonstrated that despite the prediction filters having a non-causal impulse response such filters can be used in practice due to a combination of the asymmetric nature of the impulse response and the fundamental nature of the prediction process. The findings are confirmed against actual sea-wave data. 相似文献
4.
根据1963-1992年嵊山海洋站2月海气感热输送和22a太阳磁周期与降水的关系,提出了一个长江中下游6月降水的综合预报指标,用此指标,对1993年6月长江中下游降水进行回报,结果与实况一致。 相似文献
5.
This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ 3). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ 3 time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ 3 data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ 3 predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ 3 time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ 3 reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR. 相似文献
6.
Three debris-flow simulation model software have been applied to the back analysis of a typical alpine debris flow that caused
significant deposition on an urbanized alluvial fan. Parameters used in the models were at first retrieved from the literature
and then adjusted to fit field evidence. In the case where different codes adopted the same parameters, the same input values
were used, and comparable outputs were obtained. Results of the constitutive laws used (Bingham rheology, Voellmy fluid rheology
and a quadratic rheology formulation which adds collisional and turbulent stresses to the Bingham law) indicate that no single
rheological model appears to be valid for all debris flows. The three applied models appear to be capable of reasonable reproduction
of debris-flow events, although with different levels of detail. The study shows how different software can be used to predict
the debris-flow motion for various purposes from a first screening, to predict the runout distance and deposition of the solid
material and to the different behaviour of the mixtures of flows with variation of maximum solid concentration. 相似文献
7.
在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的“因”,即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、b值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的“果”,即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括“地震窗口”、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震4要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。 相似文献
8.
Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered. 相似文献
9.
10.
海洋平台结构振动的AMD主动控制参数优化分析 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
本文针对海洋平台结构的冰激振动和地震反应控制问题,提出了采用AMD主动控制的控制策略,结合JZ20-2MUQ平台结构进行了AMD控制系统的硬参数和软参数的优化分析,并就相应于最优参数下的AMD控制海洋平台结构冰激振动和地震反应的几种代表性工况进行了时程分析,得到了一些定性和定量的结论,为实际工程的控制设计提供了基础。本文提出的AMD主动控制方法对类似的海洋平台结构的控制问题也有参考价值。 相似文献