排序方式： 共有45条查询结果，搜索用时 140 毫秒
1.
本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。 相似文献
2.
全球湿地的状况、未来情景与可持续管理对策 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）项目针对湿地与水编写的《生态系统与人类福祉：湿地与水综合报告》的核心内容。报告表明：①据估算,2000年全球的湿地面积大约为1.28×109hm2,但是这一数据显著偏低,尤其是对新热带区的湿地以及有些特殊类型湿地的估算因数据源问题可能远低于实际面积;②根据MA构建的4种情景的分析结果,未来50年（2000—2050年）内,在对生态系统实行被动式管理的全球协同和实力秩序2种情景中,预计全球的湿地面积将会减少,而在对生态系统实行主动式管理的技术家园和适应组合2种情景中,预计全球的湿地面积将保持相对稳定;③湿地的丧失和退化会对人类福祉和减轻贫困产生极为不利的影响,尤其是对低收入国家湿地附近居民的影响更为严重。为了实现湿地的可持续管理,必须从经济、制度和管理以及相关驱动力方面采取积极对策,减轻湿地生态系统承受的各种压力,保育各项生态特征,增强其自恢复能力,减缓和扭转湿地的丧失和退化趋势。 相似文献
3.
Developments in the characterisation of waste materials for environmental impact assessment purposes
H.A. van der Sloot J.C.L. Meeussen A. van Zomeren D.S. Kosson 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):72
The characterisation of waste is entering a new phase with the latest developments of characterisation leaching tests and associated modelling capabilities. The currently applied too simple testing approaches lead to poor choices in waste management. With the increased insight in release controlling processes chemical speciation aspects can be addressed even in the most complex and heterogeneous waste materials. From a composition perspective materials may be highly variable, but often materials are far more consistent in their leaching behaviour. This aspect should be exploited more extensively as it holds the key to treat waste materials in such a way that long term solutions are achieved rather than reaching temporary gains. 相似文献
4.
[ZW（*][HT6H]〓收稿日期：；修回日期：2007 05 18.
〓作者简介：[HT6SS]张永民（1973 ），男，河南延津人，副研究员，主要从事生态系统研究.[WT6HZ]E mail: [WT6BZ]zym0810@yahoo.com.cn[ZW)]
[HT4F]
[HT5K]（JZ)]
[HT5H][GK2]
摘〓要:[HT5K]简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）项目情景工作组的报告《生态系统与人类福祉：情景》的核心内容。该报告主要构建和评估了全球生态系统服务在21世纪前50年可能出现的4个情景，总的来讲，生态系统服务的主要变化包括：①在实力秩序情景中，生态系统的供给服务、调节服务、文化服务和支持服务都呈现下降趋势；②在适应组合情景中，生态系统的供给服务、调节服务和文化服务呈现上升趋势，而支持服务变化不大；③在全球协同情景中，生态系统的供给服务呈现上升趋势，而调节服务、文化服务与支持服务则呈现下降趋势；④在技术家园情景中，生态系统的文化服务呈现下降趋势，供给服务和调节服务呈现上升趋势，而支持服务变化不大；⑤在4个情景中，有些供给服务与其它服务之间存在显著的此长彼消的关系；⑥在4个情景中，有些生态系统服务的变化在工业化国家和发展中国家之间存在显著的差异。 相似文献
5.
《Marine Policy》2014
Implementing the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive explicitly calls for regional cooperation between the EU Member States in the different regional seas. This regional cooperation, although set in a general framework of EU Member States and non-EU states utilising existing Regional Sea Conventions as focal point, develops along different tracks. Based on a series of interviews with different stakeholder groups in the different regional seas the drivers for this regional cooperation were determined. These drivers were used to develop a set of scenarios to depict possible ways and structures for cooperation at the different regional seas. In this paper the result of this analysis and the different scenarios developed are presented. The five scenarios developed were very helpful in elaborating alternative governance models for regional cooperation. From the validation by the stakeholders it became clear that both the drivers used, as the scenarios developed were found to be relevant. There is no single solution that is going to fit all regional seas, or that is going to appeal to all stakeholders within a regional sea. Especially in this setting the scenario approach does help people to explore the full range of possibilities that exists for the development of alternative governance models that address two issues raised but not detailed in the MSFD: cooperation and participation. 相似文献
6.
Detlef P. van Vuuren Bert de Vries Arthur Beusen Peter S.C. Heuberger 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(4):635
The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent. 相似文献
7.
We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socio-economic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions. 相似文献
8.
9.
There is an urgent need for developing policy-relevant future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper is a milestone toward this aim focusing on open ocean fisheries. We develop five contrasting Oceanic System Pathways (OSPs), based on the existing five archetypal worlds of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate change research (e.g., Nakicenovic et al., 2014 and Riahi et al., 2016). First, we specify the boundaries of the oceanic social-ecological system under focus. Second, the two major driving forces of oceanic social-ecological systems are identified in each of three domains, viz., economy, management and governance. For each OSP (OSP1 “sustainability first”, OSP2 “conventional trends”, OSP3 “dislocation”, OSP4 “global elite and inequality”, OSP5 “high tech and market”), a storyline is outlined describing the evolution of the driving forces with the corresponding SSP. Finally, we compare the different pathways of oceanic social-ecological systems by projecting them in the two-dimensional spaces defined by the driving forces, in each of the economy, management and governance domains. We expect that the OSPs will serve as a common basis for future model-based scenario studies in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). 相似文献
10.
《Marine Policy》2017
With over 30 years’ experience of managing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), China has established more than 250 MPAs in its coastal and marine areas, but the overall management effectiveness is unimpressive [46]. Recently, China has made commitments to expand the MPA coverage in its waters ([7,52,53]) and develop an “ecological barrier” along the coast by connecting MPAs and islands by 2020 (The State Council 2015). In this context, this study reviews major challenges in current MPA practices in China, including the lack of systematic and scientific approaches, inadequate laws and regulations, ineffective governance mechanisms, conflicts between conservation and exploitation, limited funding, and inadequate monitoring programs. Four scenarios for developing China's MPA networks are developed and analyzed based on a literature review of experience in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the European Union and the Philippines, as well as a set of interviews with Chinese MPA experts. These scenarios include: 1) creating a national system with an inventory of MPAs, 2) developing social networks, 3) developing regional ecological networks, and 4) developing a national representative network. The first two scenarios focus on the enhancement of the governance system through connecting individual MPAs as a social, institutional, and learning network, which could provide opportunities for creating an ecologically coherent network, while the latter two emphasized ecological connectivity and representativeness. Given different focuses, they can be applied at different stages of implementation and combinations of scenarios can be used depending on China's needs. 相似文献