气候变化对江河流量变化趋势影响研究进展   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

刘春蓁 《地球科学进展》2007,22(8):777-783

气候变化对基于自然稳定气候假定的流量变化趋势的检测和水资源评价方法提出了挑战。在流量变化趋势的检测中分离出气候变化的影响,不仅对水资源管理和水利工程设计有重要的应用价值,而且有助于了解气候变化以何种方式、在何时、何地、已经或尚未对水文循环产生影响,对改进气候模型的模拟与预测有重要的科学价值。 统计方法是检验流量变化趋势显著性的有效工具。直接用气候模型模拟和预测未来径流变化的可靠性取决于模型对当代降水模拟的可信度。多个气候模型集合分析有可能在一定程度上减少模型对降水、径流模拟的不确定性。近年发展起来的多个气候模型集合分析与统计显著性检验技术结合的方法,有可能模拟并预测出气候强迫导致大尺度径流空间分布的变化。随着气候模型尤其是陆—气耦合的区域气候模型对降水模拟的改进,可以预见径流变化的检测、归因和预测的趋同化模拟已为期不远。将温室气体外强迫导致的水文气候变化作为一个因子引入到水资源评价中,对于水资源管理经济与生态评估,以及未来的发展规划将是一件十分重要的变革。   相似文献   

River flow mass exponents with fractal channel networks and rainfall     

Brent M. Troutman  Thomas M. Over   《Advances in water resources》2001,24(9-10)

An important problem in hydrologic science is understanding how river flow is influenced by rainfall properties and drainage basin characteristics. In this paper we consider one approach, the use of mass exponents, in examining the relation of river flow to rainfall and the channel network, which provides the primary conduit for transport of water to the outlet in a large basin. Mass exponents, which characterize the power-law behavior of moments as a function of scale, are ideally suited for defining scaling behavior of processes that exhibit a high degree of variability or intermittency. The main result in this paper is an expression relating the mass exponent of flow resulting from an instantaneous burst of rainfall to the mass exponents of spatial rainfall and that of the network width function. Spatial rainfall is modeled as a random multiplicative cascade and the channel network as a recursive replacement tree; these fractal models reproduce certain types of self-similar behavior seen in actual rainfall and networks. It is shown that under these modeling assumptions the scaling behavior of flow mirrors that of rainfall if rainfall is highly variable in space, and on the other hand flow mirrors the structure of the network if rainfall is not so highly variable.  相似文献   

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series     

Babak Mohammadi  Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh  Ali Najah Ahmed  Jana Vojteková  Yiqing Guan 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(10):1738-1751

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.  相似文献   

A modified ISBA surface scheme for modeling the hydrology of Athabasca River Basin with GCM-scale data     

Ernst Kerkhoven  Thian Yew Gan 《Advances in water resources》2006

A soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model (SVAT), interactions between the soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) of Météo France, is modified and applied to the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) to model its water and energy fluxes. Two meteorological datasets are used: the archived forecasts from the Meteorological Survey of Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) and the European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40), representing spatial scales typical of a weather forecasting model and a global circulation model (GCM), respectively. The original treatment of soil moisture and rainfall in ISBA (OISBA) is modified to statistically account for sub-grid heterogeneity of soil moisture and rainfall to produce new, highly non-linear formulations for surface and sub-surface runoff (MISBA). These new formulations can be readily applied to most existing SVATs. Stand alone mode simulations using the GEM data demonstrate that MISBA significantly improves streamflow predictions despite requiring two fewer parameters than OISBA. Simulations using the ERA-40 data show that it is possible to reproduce the annual variation in monthly, mean annual, and annual minimum flows at GCM scales without using downscaling techniques. Finally, simulations using a simple downscaling scheme show that the better performance of higher resolution datasets can be primarily attributed to improved representation of local variation of land cover, topography, and climate.  相似文献   

Development of an operational low-flow index for hydrological drought monitoring over Europe   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Carmelo Cammalleri  Jürgen Vogt  Peter Salamon 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(3):346-358

Near real-time monitoring of hydrological drought requires the implementation of an index capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the phenomenon. Starting from a dataset of modelled daily streamflow data, a low-flow index was developed based on the total water deficit of the discharge values below a certain threshold. In order to account for a range of hydrological regimes, a daily 95th percentile threshold was adopted, which was computed by means of a 31-day moving window. The observed historical total water deficits were statistically fitted by means of the exponential distribution and the corresponding probability values were used as a measure of hydrological drought severity. This approach has the advantage that it directly exploits daily streamflow values, as well as allowing a near real-time update of the index at regular time steps (i.e. 10 days, or dekad). The proposed approach was implemented on discharge data simulated by the LISFLOOD model over Europe during the period 1995–2015; its reliability was tested on four case studies found within the European drought reference database, as well as against the most recent summer drought observed in Central Europe in 2015. These validations, even if only qualitative, highlighted the ability of the index to capture the timing (starting date and duration) of the main historical hydrological drought events, and its good performance in comparison with the commonly used standardized runoff index (SRI). Additionally, the spatial evolution of the most recent event was captured well in a simulated near real-time test case, suggesting the suitability of the index for operational implementation within the European Drought Observatory.  相似文献   

天山山区典型内陆河流域径流组分特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙从建  陈伟 《干旱区地理》2017,40(1):37-44

通过对天山南北坡的两个典型流域降水、地下水、河流、融冰雪水δD和δ¹⁸O及水化学检测,基于同位素径流分割模型定量分析了年内径流组分特征。结果表明：（1）两条河流的径流组成中地下水为构成径流的主要成分,其次是冰川融水,融雪水及降水,但南北坡径流组分表现出较明显的差异,乌鲁木齐河流域中冰川融水的比重要大于黄水沟流域,对气候变化响应明显。（2）两条河流在不同季节径流组分也表现出较大差异,春季径流组分差异最为明显。  相似文献   

Climate Change and Human Impacts on Hydroclimatic Variability in the Reno River Catchment,Northern Italy   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Donatella Pavanelli  Antonina Capra 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(5):535-545

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On the emergence of heavy-tailed streamflow distributions     

《Advances in water resources》2015

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Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster–Shafer and Bayesian approaches     

Deepashree Raje  P.P. Mujumdar 《Advances in water resources》2010

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster–Shafer (D–S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D–S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D–S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D–S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster–Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D–S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D–S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change.  相似文献   

Some aspects of the hydrology of one-day annual minimum low flows of malawian rivers     

F. T. K. Sefe 《水文研究》1988,2(1):75-91

Five aspects of the hydrology of one-day annual minimum flows Q_IM, have been studied using data from twelve catchments in Malawi. Results indicate that the log-normal distribution can be fitted to all twelve catchments. Four of the rivers studied are intermittent. Application of statistical methods developed in meterology to the dichotomous-transformed data of these catchments revealed that two are ‘flow-dominant’ and the other two are ‘dry-dominant’. Another catchment is entirely dominated by a hydraulic gradient towards the Shire River and Elphant Marsh and so dries up every dry season for considerable periods of time despite the relatively high rainfall in the catchment. Q_IM, t-days after the date of occurrence of Q_IM(May), can be better estimated from simple regression than from an empirically determined recession constant.  相似文献