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1.
Prospects for forecasting climate variability over the tropical Indian Ocean sector, specifically extreme positive events of the Indian Dipole Mode (IDM), with lead times of a season or more are investigated using the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled-model system. The coupled system presents biases in its climatology over the Indian Ocean sector, which include (i) warmest sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) occurring in the central equatorial basin rather than on the eastside with the eastern (western) tropical SSTs up to 1 °C too cool (warm), (ii) a too northwest lying InterTropical Convergence Zonal over the ocean in boreal fall, (iii) a thermocline shallower (deeper) than observed west of Sumatra-Java (north of Madagascar), (iv) a delay of about a month in the onset (cessation) of the southwest (southeast) monsoon in the west (east) in boreal spring (fall). These biases affect the effectiveness of the SST-clouds-shortwave radiation negative feedback, the sensitivity of SST to wind-stress perturbations, and the character of equatorial coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Despite these biases, ensemble hindcasts of the SST anomalies averaged over the eastern and western poles of the IDM for the decade 1993–2002, which included extreme positive events in 1994 and 1997/1998, are encouragingly good at 3-months lead. The onset of the 1997/1998-event is delayed by about a month, though the peak and decay are correctly timed. At 6-months lead-time, the forecast at the eastern pole deteriorates with either positive or negative false alarms generated each boreal fall. The forecast at the western pole remains good. 相似文献
2.
丁贤法 《云南地理环境研究》2007,19(3):50-54
环境库兹涅茨曲线认为随着经济发展，环境质量先下降后改善，环境质量与收入之间表现为倒U形曲线，这意味着经济发展最终会解决环境问题。应用这一思想，根据1991～2000年文山县城区大气污染指数及1998～2002年盘龙河水污染物浓度与同期人均居民收入进行了回归分析，发现对多数污染物而言，表现为N形的高次曲线能很好的拟合两者之间的关系，据此提出一种简单但普遍的机理来解释EKC曲线，即经济发展对环境质量的正负反馈作用决定其在涨落中演变。 相似文献
3.
Carol P. Harden 《自然地理学》2014,35(1):76-89
Deliberately or indirectly, most of the terrestrial surface has been affected by the actions of human beings. For that reason, geomorphologists have needed to broaden their scope of inquiry to encompass the human-landscape system. Four themes related to human actions emerge in recent research in geomorphology: (1) human impacts on geomorphic systems, (2) human-landscape feedbacks, (3) geomorphic hazards and (4) stratigraphic markers of anthropogenic origin. The importance of humans as geomorphic agents challenges geomorphologists and their collaborators to move beyond unidirectional cause-and-effect (human impacts), and develop new research frameworks that better integrate the ongoing interactions between people and landscapes. 相似文献
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To begin exploring the underlying mechanisms that couple vegetation to cloud formation processes, we derive the lifting condensation
level (LCL) to estimate cumulus cloud base height. Using a fully coupled land–ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (HadCM3LC),
we investigate Amazonian forest feedbacks on cloud formation over three geological periods; modern-day (a.d. 1970–1990), the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kya), and under a future climate scenario (IS92a; a.d. 2070–2090). Results indicate that for both past and future climate scenarios, LCL is higher relative to modern-day. Statistical
analyses indicate that the 800 m increase in LCL during the LGM is related primarily to the drier atmosphere promoted by lower
tropical sea surface temperatures. In contrast, the predicted 1,000 m increase in LCL in the future scenario is the result
of a large increase in surface temperature and reduced vegetation cover. 相似文献
6.
人类世可持续发展背景下的远程耦合框架及其应用 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
在全球一体化进程不断加深的背景下,国家与地区之间的联系日益紧密,产生了一系列跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的社会—经济—环境影响,远程耦合（Telecoupling,社会、经济、环境的远距离相互作用）科学概念和综合框架的提出为解决上述问题提供了新方法和新途径。为更好促进远程耦合综合框架的正确使用和规范推广,本文系统解析了远程耦合综合框架,厘清各组成部分的定义和功能,梳理了框架的应用现状;通过对3个中国典型案例的阐释,展示了远程耦合综合框架的使用方法、结果分析及由此得出的科学意义和政策价值;最后描述了远程耦合综合框架使用中需要重点关注的问题,并对其应用前景进行了展望。远程耦合综合框架的推广应用有助于以跨国家、跨地区、多尺度的视角,重新审视多个人类与自然耦合系统的相互作用,揭示隐藏的远距离地理空间作用的科学价值,服务于有关政策的制定和实施,促进全球社会、经济、环境的可持续发展。 相似文献
7.
A.N.左洛托克瑞林 《干旱区地理》2007,30(6):797-804
根据揭示沙漠化扩张内在规律的相关气候驱动因子的假说,气候作用影响之下的沙漠化是在具反射率-降水正、负反馈特点的气候系统之中的区域干旱化过程与干旱土壤退化过程相互作用的结果。在辐射调节下的地表下垫面温度占主导的条件下,气候成因的沙漠化是由区域气候系统反馈所形成。正反馈的外部调节因子是降水量的变化和极端降水事件(特别是旱灾)的出现频率,降水量减少以及降水频率的降低直接影响沙漠化的程度。20世纪下半叶,人类因素导致的干旱土地退化作为另外的正反馈调节因子,其重要性正在增加。通常正反馈的扩大趋势会被通过蒸腾而进行的地表温度调节的负反馈所抑制。由正反馈到负反馈的转换是通过地球表面与大气层之间的热量交换的调节所确定的,其中非潜热因子处于增加状态。上述情况在反射率和地表温度同时增加的条件下发生。在超出绿色植物生物量及其NDVI指数阈值的条件下,负反馈向正反馈的转换就会发生。人为作用导致的植被退化加快了向绿色植物生物量阈值逼近的进程,从而引起气候因素驱动的沙漠化扩大。一个主要由气候因素影响的荒漠化区域,在大多数情况下,其绿色生物量均在季节变化和年际变化中达到了阈值。在中度的人为影响的植被退化条件下,这些地域一般都包括部分干旱与半干旱土地。然而有时,人类活动也会导致干旱的半湿润土地退化。本文运用Turan和Sahel地区1982-2001年NDVI指数的监测结果,分析了全球变暖和人为作用导致的土地退化。 相似文献
8.
It has recently been found that Neoproterozoic glaciogenic sediments were deposited mainly at low paleolatitudes, in marked qualitative contrast to their Pleistocene counterparts. Several competing models vie for explanation of this unusual paleoclimatic record, most notably the high-obliquity hypothesis and varying degrees of the snowball Earth scenario. The present study quantitatively compiles the global distributions of Miocene–Pleistocene glaciogenic deposits and paleomagnetically derived paleolatitudes for Late Devonian–Permian, Ordovician–Silurian, Neoproterozoic, and Paleoproterozoic glaciogenic rocks. Whereas high depositional latitudes dominate all Phanerozoic ice ages, exclusively low paleolatitudes characterize both of the major Precambrian glacial epochs. Transition between these modes occurred within a 100-My interval, precisely coeval with the Neoproterozoic–Cambrian “explosion” of metazoan diversity. Glaciation is much more common since 750 Ma than in the preceding sedimentary record, an observation that cannot be ascribed merely to preservation. These patterns suggest an overall cooling of Earth's longterm climate, superimposed by developing regulatory feedbacks involving an increasingly complex biosphere. 相似文献
9.
Radiative forcing has been widely used as a metric of climate change, i.e. as a measure by which various contributors to a net surface temperature change can be quantitatively compared. The extent to which this concept is valid for spatially inhomogeneous perturbations to the climate system is tested. A series of climate model simulations involving ozone changes of different spatial structure reveals that the climate sensitivity parameter is highly variable: for an ozone increase in the northern hemisphere lower stratosphere, it is more than twice as large as for a homogeneous CO2 perturbation. A global ozone perturbation in the upper troposphere, however, causes a significantly smaller surface temperature response than CO2. The variability of the climate sensitivity parameter is shown to be mostly due to the varying strength of the stratospheric water vapour feedback. The variability of the sea-ice albedo feedback modifies climate sensitivity of perturbations with the same vertical structure but a different horizontal structure. This feedback is also the origin of the comparatively larger climate sensitivity to perturbations restricted to the northern hemisphere extratropics. As cloud feedback does not operate independently from the other feedbacks, quantifying its effect is rather difficult. However, its effect on the variability of for horizontally and vertically inhomogeneous perturbations within one model framework seems to be comparatively small.This revised version was published online March 2005 with corrections to table 5. 相似文献
10.
Abstract A series of fifteen 96‐h forecasts made with a spectral numerical weather prediction model is studied with reference to errors in the planetary wavelengths. The major contributor to the short (less than 48‐h) range forecast error is identified as an external mode. The medium range forecast error (96 h) is internal in character and reflects a deficiency in the simulation of the quasi‐stationary components. 相似文献