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1.
We study the October 18, M
W = 7.1, 1992 Atrato earthquake, and its foreshocks and aftershocks, which occurred in the Atrato valley, northwestern Colombia. The main shock was preceded by several foreshocksof which the M
W = 6.6, October 17 earthquacke was the largest. Inparticular, we examine foreshocks and aftershocks performing joint-hypocenter relocations using high quality Pn and Sn wave readingsfrom permanent regional networks. We observed a few hours prior to the main shock a sudden increase of foreshocks. Maybe this could be used as a predictor since foreshocks have been known for other major events in the region. Our locations align for 90 km with a trend of 5° ±4° in agreement with the Harvard CMT solution showing the faultplane trending 9° to be the plane of rupture. In relation to theepicenter of the main shock, maximum intensities were located to thesouth, consistent with a rupture that traveled from north to south witha larger energy release in the south as suggested by an empirical Green'sfunction study (Li and Toksöz, 1993; Ammon et al., 1994). The boundarybetween the Panama and North Andes blocks has been placed close to thePanama-Colombia border as either a sharp boundary or a diffuse zone. TheAtrato earthquake, however, shows that the plate boundary between thePanama and North Andes microblocks is a diffuse deformation zone. Thiszone has a width of at least 2° stretching from 78°W to 76°W. Quantification of earthquake moment release (during the past30 years) in this zone shows a similar amount of moment release in thewestern and eastern parts of this zone. 相似文献
2.
James H. Dieterich 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):589-617
Current methods for calculation of long-term probabilities for the recurrence of large earthquakes on specific fault segments are based upon models of the faulting process that implicitly assume constant stress rates during the interval separating earthquakes and instantaneous failure at a critical stress threshold. However, observations indicate that the process of stress recovery following an earthquake involves rate variations at all time scales in addition to stress steps caused by nearby earthquakes. Additionally, the existence of foreshocks, aftershocks and possible precursory processes suggest that there may be significant time dependence of the earthquake nucleation process. A method for determining the conditional probabilities for earthquake occurrence under conditions of irregular stressing is developed that could be useful at all time scales including those pertinent to short-and intermediate-term prediction. Used with models for earthquake occurrence at a stress threshold, the addition of variable stressing introduces a simple scaling of the conditional probabilities by stress level and stress rate. A model for the time-dependent nucleation of earthquake slip has been proposed recently that is based upon laboratory observations of fault strength. This failure criterion results in large but relatively short duration changes in the probability of earthquake recurrence particularly following stress steps. Applied to populations of earthquakes the models predicts a 1/t decay of seismicity following stress steps as observed for aftershocks and for frequency of foreshock-mainshock pairs. The model suggests that variations of seismicity rates of small earthquakes in the nucleation zone of the expected earthquake directly indicate variations in probability of recurrence of the large earthquake. 相似文献
3.
S. J. Gibowicz 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1986,124(4-5):611-658
This review was prepared as an opening lecture for the International Symposium on Physics of Fracturing and Seismic Energy Release, held at the Castle of Liblice near Prague from October 28 to November 1, 1985, and organized by the Geophysical Institute of the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences. The review attempts to classify and synthesize results of recent studies in fracture mechanics and earthquake source physics. The following topics are discussed: recent developments in fracture mechanics, earthquake source modeling, heterogeneous fault planes, foreshocks and aftershocks, faults and fractals, and moment tensor solutions. This rather broad range of topics prevents presentation of a complete list of all relevant works, though over one hundred and seventy references are cited. 相似文献
4.
Simulation of seismicity due to fluid migration in a fault zone 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Teruo Yamashita 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,132(3):674-686
Spatio-temporal variation of rupture activity is modelled assuming fluid migration in a narrow, porous fault zone formed along a vertical strike-slip fault in a semi-infinite elastic medium. The principle of the effective stress coupled to the Coulomb failure criterion introduces mechanical coupling between fault slip and the pore fluid. The fluid is assumed to flow out of a localized high-pressure fluid compartment in the fault at the onset of earthquake rupture. The duration of the earthquake sequence is assumed to be much shorter than the recurrence period of characteristic events on the fault. Both an earthquake swarm and a foreshock–main-shock sequence can be simulated by changing the relative magnitudes of the initial tectonic stress, pore fluid pressure, fracture strength and so on. When an inhomogeneity is introduced into the spatial distribution of fracture strength, high complexity is observed in the spatio-temporal variation of rupture activity. For example, the time interval between two successive events is highly irregular, and a relatively long quiescence of activity is sometimes observed in a foreshock–main-shock sequence. The quiescence is caused by the temporary arresting of rupture extension, due to an encounter with fault segments having locally high strengths. The frequency–magnitude statistics of intermediate-size events obey the Gutenberg–Richter relation. The calculations show the temporal variation of the b value during some foreshock sequences, and the degree of the change seems to depend on the statistical distribution of the fracture strength. 相似文献
5.
J. R. Bowman 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5):651-669
Three large earthquakes with surface‐wave magnitudes 6.3–6.7 on 22 January 1988 were associated with 32 km of surface faulting on two main scarps 30 km southwest of Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory. These events provide an excellent opportunity to study the mechanics of midplate earthquakes because of the abundance of geological and geophysical data in the area, the proximity of the Warramunga seismic array and the ease of access to the fault zone. The 1988 earthquakes were located in the North Australian Craton in an area that had no history of moderate or large earthquakes before 1986. Additionally, no smaller earthquakes from the fault zone were identified at the Warramunga array, which is situated only 30 km from the nearest scarp, between the 1965 installation of the array and 1986. The main shocks were preceded by a swarm of moderatesized (magnitude 4–5) earthquakes in January 1987 and many smaller aftershocks throughout 1987. Careful relocation of all teleseismically recorded earthquakes from the fault zone shows that the 1987 activity was concentrated in an area only 6 km across in the gap between the two main fault scarps. The main shocks also nucleated in the centre of the fault zone near the 1987 activity. Field observations of scarp morphology indicate that the scarp is divided into three segments, each showing primarily reverse faulting. However, whereas the western and eastern segments show movement of the southern block over the northern, the central scarp segment shows the opposite, with the northern block thrust over the southern block. Analysis of the first arrival times at Warramunga suggests that the three main shocks were associated with the western, central and eastern scarp segments, respectively. The locations of aftershocks determined using data from temporary seismograph arrays in the epicentral area define three inclined zones of activity that are interpreted as fault planes. In the western and eastern portions of the aftershock zone, these concentrations of activity dip to the south at 45° and 35°, respectively, but in the central section the aftershock zone dips to the north at 55°. Focal mechanisms derived from modelling broadband teleseismic data show thrust and oblique thrust faulting for the three main shocks. The first event ruptured unilaterally up and to the northwest on the westernmost fault segment, while the third main shock ruptured horizontally to the southeast. Modelling of repeat levelling data from the epicentral area requires at least three distinct fault planes, with the eastern and western planes dipping to the south and the central plane dipping to the north. The combination of scarp morphology, aftershock distribution and elevation data makes a strong case for rupture of fault planes in conjugate orientation during the 22 January 1988 Tennant Creek earthquakes. More than 20000 aftershocks have been recorded at Warramunga and activity continues to the present‐day with occasional shocks felt in the town of Tennant Creek and some recent off‐fault aftershocks located directly under the Warramunga seismic array. Stratigraphic relationships exposed in trenches excavated across the scarps suggest that during the Quaternary, a large earthquake ruptured the surface along one segment of the 1988 scarps. 相似文献
6.
7.
5.5 earthquakes in northern Baja California and southern California8.
David J. Varnes 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,130(4):661-686
During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is
,where
is the cumulative sum until time,t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C andn are constants; andt
fis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock,t
f,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of
versus time using successive estimates oft
fin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination,r
2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values ofn. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation logN=a–bM, and the productn timesb for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic eruptions. Results of more recent experiments and theoretical studies on crack propagation, fault mechanics, and acoustic emission can be closely reproduced by equation (1). Rate-process theory and continuum damage mechanics offer leads toward understanding the physical processes. 相似文献
9.
A damage mechanics model for power-law creep and earthquake aftershock and foreshock sequences 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Ian G. Main 《Geophysical Journal International》2000,142(1):151-161
10.
《International Journal of Digital Earth》2013,6(2):138-157
The discovery of spatio-temporal clusters in complex spatio-temporal data-sets has been a challenging issue in the domain of spatio-temporal data mining and knowledge discovery. In this paper, a novel spatio-temporal clustering method based on spatio-temporal shared nearest neighbors (STSNN) is proposed to detect spatio-temporal clusters of different sizes, shapes, and densities in spatio-temporal databases with a large amount of noise. The concepts of windowed distance and shared nearest neighbor are utilized to define a novel spatio-temporal density for a spatio-temporal entity with definite mathematical meanings. Then, the density-based clustering strategy is employed to uncover spatio-temporal clusters. The spatio-temporal clustering algorithm developed in this paper is easily implemented and less sensitive to density variation among spatio-temporal entities. Experiments are undertaken on several simulated data-sets to demonstrate the effectiveness and advantage of the STSNN algorithm. Also, the real-world applications on two seismic databases show that the STSNN algorithm has the ability to uncover foreshocks and aftershocks effectively. 相似文献