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1.
青藏块体东北缘断层形变与中强地震 总被引:7,自引:4,他引:3
对祁连山-海原断裂带近期断层形变特征进行了初步研究,发现多场地,大范围的断层活动异常是中等强度地震发生的显著背景,并且往往与大陆地震活动的阶段性总体状况相呼应;区域形变存在明显的特征量,包括特征形态和特征时间,同一场地在不同地震前的异常特征具有重复性,但会受到背景差异显著的不同地震的影响,目前形变状况表明研究区仍具有发生中强地震的地壳运动背景。 相似文献
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Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions. 相似文献
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在对中国西部的区域划分进行界定并阐述中国西部区域特征的基础上,对中国西部的开发进行了历史回顾,并对中国西部开发的历史背景和现实基础、中国西部开发的优势和制约条件进行分析,最后提出了中国西部开发的发展战略和政策措施. 相似文献
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台湾海峡及其西边地区正常地震动态及危险性特征 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
本文从地震的时,空分布特征,区域应力场动态,能量释放方式,b值及震群特征6个方面研究了台湾海峡及其西边地区地震活动的正常动态及异常特征。结果表明,具有前兆意义的变化模式表现为区域地震活动在时间,空间及功能方面的有序性变化,即:(a)地震空间分布由分散转为集中,形成条带或空区;(b)断裂活动由多组转为单一,应力场趋向一致;(display status 相似文献
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基于历史关系数据库的时空数据库实现研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
时空数据库是研究如何存储历史和当前的时空数据,从而跟踪分析某一区域的变化,最终实现时空模型化和模拟地学过程.采用历史关系数据库模式的时空数据库可以充分利用传统时态数据库时态查询功能和GIS空间分析处理功能这些方面成熟的研究成果和现有系统,降低时空数据库建立的费用和开销.分析了采用扩展关系型时空数据库的原因,介绍了历史关系数据库模式、时态关系代数和查询语言,研究了采用历史关系数据库模式在全关系化空间数据库中组织时态信息的方法,从而实现时空数据库.以麦地轮作为例说明了采用历史关系数据库模式建立时空数据库的可行性和有效性. 相似文献
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Characterization of the microseismic activity (M L <2.0) has been performed at Mt. Melbourne since 1990. We recorded a group of low frequency events with common morphological characteristics, i.e., an emerging onset, an unclear second phase and a sharply dropping coda. Spectral analysis of events recorded at more than one station indicates that the seismogram characteristics and spectral content are largely due to source effects. A polarization filter applied to a set of three component data revealed a first phase made up ofP waves followed (after about 0.9–1.4 sec.) by a second phase probably composed ofSH-type waves. Particle motion analysis detected a seismic ray angle direction mainly between N70°E and N110°E and apparent angle of incidence between 35° and 48° for the first phase. The studied seismicity was localized in an area on the eastern slope of Mt. Melbourne Volcano which presents a surface temperature anomaly (Mazzarini andSalvini, 1994). We formulate two hypotheses for the type of earthquakes recorded: 1) long-period events involving active presence of magmatic fluids in the source processes; 2) or the result of fracturing processes (shear?) in a medium characterized by transition between brittle and plastic behaviors. In the latter hypothesis the superficial thermal anomaly may be a symptom of this behavior at depth and is confirmed by the lown values observed for the exponential fit in the codaQ analysis. 相似文献
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Erik Rüttener Juan José Egozcue Dieter Mayer-Rosa Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178
Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law. 相似文献