大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化     

张昭栋  刘章增  赵会蓬 《大地测量与地球动力学》2002,22(1):51-55

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化  相似文献   

台湾海峡西岸重力场变化梯度场图像分析     

梁全强  刘序俨  黄声明  吴维日  陈新泽 《大地测量与地球动力学》2006,26(4):82-85

讨论了应用曲面拟合技术和利用离散的重力观测点的重力变化对特定研究区的重力场变化进行数值模拟以获取该区重力变化空间梯度场图像的具体方法;并应用该方法获得了2004年3月福建安溪3.6级地震前的重力变化空间梯度场图像,发现空间梯度场图像能清晰地反映出地震前重力场群体性变化的差异性;利用此方法对2005年6月~2006年3月间台湾海峡西岸重力场变化进行数值模拟,获得其空间梯度场图像。  相似文献   

Influence of Mesoscale Eddies on Variations of the Kuroshio Path South of Japan     

Naoto Ebuchi  Kimio Hanawa 《Journal of Oceanography》2003,59(1):25-36

The influences of mesoscale eddies on variations of the Kuroshio path south of Japan have been investigated using time series of the Kuroshio axis location and altimeter-derived sea surface height maps for a period of seven years from 1993 to 1999, when the Kuroshio followed its non-large meander path. It was found that both the cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies may interact with the Kuroshio and trigger short-term meanders of the Kuroshio path, although not all eddies that approached or collided with the Kuroshio formed meanders. An anticyclonic eddy that revolves clockwise in a region south of Shikoku and Cape Shionomisaki with a period of about 5–6 months was found to propagate westward along about 30°N and collide with the Kuroshio in the east of Kyushu or south of Shikoku. This collision sometimes triggers meanders which propagate over the whole region south of Japan. The eddy was advected downstream, generating a meander on the downstream side to the east of Cape Shionomisaki. After the eddy passed Cape Shionomisaki, it detached from the Kuroshio and started to move westward again. Sometimes the eddy merges with other anticyclonic eddies traveling from the east. Coalescence of cyclonic eddies, which are also generated in the Kuroshio Extension region and propagate westward in the Kuroshio recirculation region south of Japan, into the Kuroshio in the east of Kyushu, also triggers meanders which mainly propagate only in a region west of Cape Shionomisaki. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Huai-zhong Yu  Zheng-kang Shen  Yong-ge Wan  Qing-yong Zhu  Xiang-chu Yin   《Tectonophysics》2006,428(1-4):87-94

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.  相似文献   

黔东南地区短期气候预测方法研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

池再香  白慧 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2005,28(6):20-21

根据大气环流特征和小气候相关关系,找出预测黔东南地区春季倒春寒、3～6月降水量趋势、夏季及6～8月气温变化趋势和夏季旱涝趋势指标,用以制作黔东南地区长期天气趋势预测。  相似文献   

百色盆地那读组短期基准面旋回层序分析   总被引：14，自引：3，他引：14  

彭军  郑荣才  陈景山  蔡勋育  韦景春 《沉积学报》2002,20(2):203-209

以高分辨率层序地层学理论和技术方法为指导，运用短期基准面旋回界面的识别标志将百色盆地那读组短期基准面旋回层序划分为向上“变深”的非对称型（A 型）、向上变浅的非对称型（B 型）、向上变深复变浅的对称型（C型）等三种基本结构类型，再根据可容纳空间大小和上下两个半旋回的厚度进一步划分为七个亚类型:即低可容纳空间向上“变深”的对称型（A₁型），高可容纳空间向上“变深”的非对称型（A₂型），低可容纳空间向上变浅的非对称型（B₁型），高可容纳空间向上变浅的非对称型（B₂型），完全-近完全对称型（C₁型），以上升半旋回为主的不完全对称型（C₂型），以下降半旋回为主的不完全对称型（C₃型）。文中详细讨论了每个基本类型和亚类型的沉积背景、叠加样式、岩性组成和沉积动力学过程，并指出有利储集砂体在每种类型中的发育部位。在此基础上，总结了短期基准面旋回层序的变化规律和分布模式，指出从陆地向湖盆，短期基准面旋回层序类型具有从A₁型!A₂型!C₂型!C₁型!C₃型!B₁型!B₂型的变化规律，并简述了短期基准面旋回层序在油气勘探开发中的研究意义。  相似文献   

基于ODBC的地震前兆数据批量卸出与转换程序的实现     

李圣强  王斌  杨满栋  米宏亮  宋喜先  赵育浦 《华北地震科学》2002,20(2):22-27

介绍了CDBC技术、工作流程及数据传递方式；分析了研制数据卸出与转换程序的关键技术及实现方法；描述了程序的组织结构。通过实例说明了该程序在全国前兆台网中心卸载与转换地震前兆数字化的观测数据中的应用。  相似文献   

Precursory seismic crustal deformation in the area of southern Albanides     

B.C. Papazachos  A.S. Savvaidis  C.B. Papazachos  G.F. Karakaisis 《Journal of Seismology》2002,6(2):237-245

On the basis of growing evidence thatstrong earthquakes are preceded by a periodof accelerating seismicity of moderatemagnitude earthquakes, an attempt is madeto search for such seismicity pattern in NWAegean area. Accelerating seismic crustaldeformation has been identified in the areaof southern Albanides mountain range(border region between Greece, formerYugoslavia and Albania). Based on certainproperties of this activity and on itssimilarity with accelerating seismicdeformation observed before a strongearthquake which occurred in the sameregion on 26 May 1960 (M = 6.5), we canconclude that a similar earthquake may begenerated in the same region during thenext few years. This conclusion is inagreement with independent results whichhave been derived on the basis of the timepredictable model.  相似文献   

汪清7.2级深震地下流体动态异常探析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李富  刘俊清  张晨侠  张洪艳 《华北地震科学》2003,21(3):19-22

2002年6月29日汪清7．2级深震前，吉林省地下流体观测网部分井孔观测到一组从趋势到短期前兆异常。本文阐述这些异常出现的特征和时空演化过程。认为异常出现的时间与震中距密切相关，其空间展布具有迁移性，中期异常由外围向震中收缩，其速率很小，进入短期阶段，岩石处于失稳、临失稳状态，水位异常由震中向外围发散，速率迅速加大。同时发现了异常盲区即深震的震中区，它对预测深震中有非常实际的意义，同时对研究板块运动、地球动力学过程也有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

三马坊水温重复性前兆异常的构造特征     

姚宝树 《华北地震科学》2003,21(4):23-29

研究发现三马坊水温对应某些构造带上的地震,其前兆异常有相似性和重复性特征.对应北西向张渤构造带上的地震,其前兆异常形态为突降型,对应东西向阴山-燕山构造带上的地震,其前兆异常形态为上升型,表明水温前兆异常的相似性和重复性特征受活动性构造体系所控制.深入研究三马坊水温前兆异常特征与活动构造带间的关系,可能是突破该地区地震短临预报的有效途径.  相似文献