Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions     

Olena Babak  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Computational Geosciences》2008,12(4):503-512

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.  相似文献   

Mongolian gerbils and Daurian pikas responded differently to changes in precipitation in the Inner Mongolian grasslands     

G. Wang  W. Zhong 《Journal of Arid Environments》2006,66(4):648-656

Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus) and Daurian pikas (Ochotona dauurica) are two key small mammal species in the Inner Mongolian grasslands, China. Mongolian gerbils displayed density-dependent population growth, but the time lag of density dependence was short and within season. The spring–autumn population growth rate was inversely related to population density in Mongolian gerbils of the Erdos desert grasslands. The autumn–spring population growth rate of Mongolian gerbils was inversely related to winter precipitation. Precipitation had stronger effects on the population growth of gerbils during the non-breeding season. The monthly population growth rate of Daurian pikas was positively related to the monthly precipitation and was inversely related to population density in central Inner Mongolia. Daurian pikas select habitats with tall plants. Increased precipitation enhances plant production and increases the height of plants in arid and semi-arid regions. This enhancement of plant height might increase the population growth of Daurian pikas. Mongolian gerbils live in short grasslands. Increased winter precipitation might result in higher winter mortality of Mongolia gerbils, or taller plants might supress gerbil population growth in wet years. Therefore, responses of small mammal species to changes in precipitation depend on the life history of small mammals and changes in vegetation induced by climatic changes.  相似文献   

Indicator Simulation Accounting for Multiple-Point Statistics   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Julián M. Ortiz  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Mathematical Geology》2004,36(5):545-565

Geostatistical simulation aims at reproducing the variability of the real underlying phenomena. When nonlinear features or large-range connectivity is present, the traditional variogram-based simulation approaches do not provide good reproduction of those features. Connectivity of high and low values is often critical for grades in a mineral deposit. Multiple-point statistics can help to characterize these features. The use of multiple-point statistics in geostatistical simulation was proposed more than 10 years ago, on the basis of the use of training images to extract the statistics. This paper proposes the use of multiple-point statistics extracted from actual data. A method is developed to simulate continuous variables. The indicator kriging probabilities used in sequential indicator simulation are modified by probabilities extracted from multiple-point configurations. The correction is done under the assumption of conditional independence. The practical implementation of the method is illustrated with data from a porphyry copper mine.  相似文献   

Weights of Evidence Modeling of Mineral Potential: A Case Study Using Small Number of Prospects,Abra, Philippines   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9  

Carranza  Emmanuel John M. 《Natural Resources Research》2004,13(3):173-187

Weights of evidence (WofE) modeling usually is applied to map mineral potential in areas with large number of deposits/prospects. In this paper, WofE modeling is applied to a case study area measuring about 920 km² with 12 known porphyry copper prospects. A pixel size of 100 m × 100 m was used in the spatial data analyses to represent in a raster-based GIS lateral extents of prospects and of geological features considered as spatial evidence. Predictor maps were created based on (a) estimates of studentized values of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence; (b) proportion of number of prospects in zones where spatial evidence is present; and (c) geological interpretations of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence. Uncertainty because of missing geochemical evidence is shown to have an influence on tests of assumption of conditional independence (CI) among predictor maps with respect to prospects. For the final predictive model, assumption of CI is rejected based on omnibus test but is accepted based on a new omnibus test. The final predictive model, which delineates 30% of study area as zones with potential for porphyry copper, has 83% success rate and 73% prediction rate. The results demonstrate plausibility of WofE modeling of mineral potential in large areas with small number of mineral prospects.  相似文献   

The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Candan Gokceoglu  Hakan A. Nefeslioglu  Tolga Can 《Engineering Geology》2005,81(1):65-83

Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m³ of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area.  相似文献   

CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS     

田洪军  李泽椿  王栋梁  王斌 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(4):421-436

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which was largely different from those previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e., intensity error or location error.  相似文献   

海上风电升压站平台高程确定标准的合理性研究          下载免费PDF全文

潘晓春 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(6):83-88

为保证海上风电升压电站建设的经济合理与安全可靠,合理确定海上风电升压电站平台高程十分必要。文中从波浪与潮位的遭遇组合、最大波高取值与现行相关标准的比较、最大波峰高度计算的合理性等方面,全面分析了确定海上风电升压站平台高程各组成项取值标准的合理性,研究认为现行标准明显偏高。建议海上升压站平台底部高程按"100年一遇极端高水位+重现期50年波列累积频率1%的最大波峰高度+安全超高"确定。结合工程实例计算分析,按本文建议可使海上升压站平台高程明显降低,从而节省工程造价,还可减轻升压站工程对周边风机的遮蔽影响,以达到多发电量的效果。  相似文献   

Scalar Similarity for Relaxed Eddy Accumulation Methods     

Johannes Ruppert  Christoph Thomas  Thomas Foken 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,120(1):39-63

The relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) method allows the measurement of trace gas fluxes when no fast sensors are available for eddy covariance measurements. The flux parameterisation used in REA is based on the assumption of scalar similarity, i.e., similarity of the turbulent exchange of two scalar quantities. In this study changes in scalar similarity between carbon dioxide, sonic temperature and water vapour were assessed using scalar correlation coefficients and spectral analysis. The influence on REA measurements was assessed by simulation. The evaluation is based on observations over grassland, irrigated cotton plantation and spruce forest.Scalar similarity between carbon dioxide, sonic temperature and water vapour showed a distinct diurnal pattern and change within the day. Poor scalar similarity was found to be linked to dissimilarities in the energy contained in the low frequency part of the turbulent spectra ( < 0.01 Hz).The simulations of REA showed significant change in b-factors throughout the diurnal course. The b-factor is part of the REA parameterisation scheme and describes a relation between the concentration difference and the vertical flux of a trace gas. The diurnal course of b-factors for carbon dioxide, sonic temperature and water vapour matched well. Relative flux errors induced in REA by varying scalar similarity were generally below ± 10%. Systematic underestimation of the flux of up to − 40% was found for the use of REA applying a hyperbolic deadband (HREA). This underestimation was related to poor scalar similarity between the scalar of interest and the scalar used as proxy for the deadband definition.  相似文献   

Flux contribution of coherent structures and its implications for the exchange of energy and matter in a tall spruce canopy   总被引：2，自引：5，他引：2  

Christoph Thomas  Thomas Foken 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,123(2):317-337

The flux contribution of coherent structures to the total exchange of energy and matter is investigated in a spruce canopy of moderate density in heterogeneous, complex terrain. The study deploys two methods of analysis to estimate the coherent exchange: conditional averages in combination with wavelet analysis, and quadrant analysis. The data were obtained by high-frequency single-point measurements using sonic anemometers and gas analysers at five observation heights above and within the canopy and subcanopy, and represent a period of up to 2.5 months. The study mainly addresses the momentum transfer and exchange of sensible heat throughout the roughness sublayer, while results are provided for the exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapour above the canopy. The magnitude of the flux contribution of coherent structures largely depends on the method of analysis, and it is demonstrated that these differences are attributed to differences in the sampling strategy between the two methods. Despite the differences, relational properties such as sweep and ejection ratios and the variation of the flux contribution with height were in agreement for both methods. The sweep phase of coherent structures is the dominant process close to and within the canopy, whereas the ejections gain importance with increasing distance to the canopy. The efficiency of the coherent exchange in transporting scalars exceeds that for momentum by a factor of two. The occurrence of coherent structures results in a flux error less than 4% for the eddy-covariance method. Based on the physical processes identified from the analysis of the ejection and sweep phases along the vertical profile in the roughness sublayer, a classification scheme for the identification of exchange regimes is developed. This scheme allows one to estimate the region of the canopy participating in the exchange of energy and matter with the above-canopy air under varying environmental conditions.  相似文献   

Do stratocumulus clouds detrain? FIRE I data revisited     

Stephan R. de Roode  Qing Wang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,122(2):479-491

Analyses of aircraft observations of the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE I) show the frequent presence of clear, but relatively moist, air patches near the stratocumulus cloud-top interface. A conditional sampling of measurements in these clear air patches shows that their thermodynamic properties do more resemble boundary-layer air characteristics than those of free troposphere air. From an aircraft leg through cloud tops it is demonstrated that turbulent mixing across the cloud-top interface can lead to the local dissipation of the cloud top. Analogous to the terminology used for shallow cumulus parameterizations this process can be considered as detrainment, with which we mean that after a mixing event across the cloud-top boundaries, mixed unsaturated parcels become part of the clear environment of the cloud.  相似文献