Approach to Mountain Hazards in Tibet, China   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

MADongtao TUJianjun CUIPeng LURuren 《山地科学学报》2004,1(2):143-154

Tibet is located at the southwest boundary of China. It is the main body of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the highest and the youngest plateau in the world. Owing to complicated geology, Neo-tectonic movements, geomorphology, climate and plateau environment, various mountain hazards, such as debris flow, flash flood, landslide, collapse, snow avalanche and snow drifts, are widely distributed along the Jinsha River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River), the Nu River and the Lancang River in the east, and the Yarlungzangbo River, the Pumqu River and the Poiqu River in the south and southeast of Tibet. The distribution area of mountain hazards in Tibet is about 589,000 km^2, 49.3% of its total territory. In comparison to other mountain regions in China, mountain hazards in Tibet break out unexpectedly with tremendously large scale and endanger the traffic lines, cities and towns, farmland, grassland, mountain environment, and make more dangers to the neighboring countries, such as Nepal, India, Myanmar and Bhutan. To mitigate mountain hazards, some suggestions are proposed in this paper, such as strengthening scientific research, enhancing joint studies, hazards mitigation planning, hazards warning and forecasting, controlling the most disastrous hazards and forbidding unreasonable human exploring activities in mountain areas.  相似文献   

GRADATION AND ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGE DEGREE OF NATURAL LANDSCAPE IN XING, AN COUNTY, GUANGXI     

李家永  李昌华 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1992,(4)

A new technique designed to help quantify the degree of damage to the landscape from one area to another shows a close relationship between population density and the degree of landscape damage. The technique establishes a scale of damage from 0 to 5 (zero = no damage; 5 = severe damage) using data from aerial photographs, land-use maps, and field data. The related formula allows one to compare the relative degree of damage across regions using a combination of an absolute index, a theoretical index, a relative index, and population density. Xing'an County is used to demonstrate the technique.  相似文献   

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams     

Roberto Mínguez  Fernando Delgado  Ignacio Escuder  Manuel G. de Membrillera 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(10):1019-1037

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

拉格朗日插值法在渔业资源评估上的应用     

陈文河  邵青 《广东海洋大学学报》2003,23(6):35-38

应用拉格朗日插值法拟合鱼类体长与体重之间的函数关系 ,使用计算机VB语言进行编写程序 ,与常用的线性回归法、Ricker法进行比较 ,得出体长与体重的关系式为Pn(x) =∑nk=0yklk(x)=∑nk=0(∏nj=0j≠kx-xjxk-xj)yk 。  相似文献   

铜川南滑坡危险性综合评价     

倪万魁 《地球科学与环境学报》1996,(3)

本文根据大量的调查资料，采用多指标评判打分法对铜川市区滑坡逐一进行了危险性综合评价，旨在为该区滑坡的预测与防治提供可靠的依据。  相似文献   

FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF CONTAINER TRANSPORTATION MODES ALONG THE CHANGJIANG RIVER MAIN LINE AND ITS DELTA AREA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANGShi-yu XIAOHan-liang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):259-261

The Changjiang River (Yangtze) is one of the fastest growth areas of container transportation in Chi-na. Rail, road and water transportation have competed against each other for container transportation in the Chang-jiang River main line and its delta area. It is of significance to assess these different transportation modes scientifi-cally in order to organize container transportation efficiently in this area and make decision for integral plan and construction of transportation system in this area. This paper outlines application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to appraise different modes of typical direction of containers. Twelve assessment indexes were decided. Membership functions were formulated. Evaluation results indicated that road transportation was optimal mode in the Changjiang River delta area, however water transportation was the primary way in the Changjiang River main line.  相似文献   

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Carlo Meletti  Fabrizio Galadini  Gianluca Valensise  Massimiliano Stucchi  Roberto Basili  Salvatore Barba  Gianfranco Vannucci  Enzo Boschi 《Tectonophysics》2008,450(1-4):85-108

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.  相似文献   

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction     

Chang-Guk Sun  Sung-Ho Chun  Tae-Gyun Ha  Choong-Ki Chung  Dong-Soo Kim   《Computers and Geotechnics》2008,35(3):436-449

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.  相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide-prone area (Findikli,NE of Turkey) by likelihood-frequency ratio and weighted linear combination models   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  

Aykut Akgun  Serhat Dag  Fikri Bulut 《Environmental Geology》2008,54(6):1127-1143

Landslides are very common natural problems in the Black Sea Region of Turkey due to the steep topography, improper use of land cover and adverse climatic conditions for landslides. In the western part of region, many studies have been carried out especially in the last decade for landslide susceptibility mapping using different evaluation methods such as deterministic approach, landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses. The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Findikli district, Rize) located at the eastern part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey by likelihood frequency ratio (LRM) model and weighted linear combination (WLC) model and to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, landslide inventory map of the area were prepared for the years of 1983 and 1995 by detailed field surveys and aerial-photography studies. Slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from drainage lines, distance from roads and the land-cover of the study area are considered as the landslide-conditioning parameters. The differences between the susceptibility maps derived by the LRM and the WLC models are relatively minor when broad-based classifications are taken into account. However, the WLC map showed more details but the other map produced by LRM model produced weak results. The reason for this result is considered to be the fact that the majority of pixels in the LRM map have high values than the WLC-derived susceptibility map. In order to validate the two susceptibility maps, both of them were compared with the landslide inventory map. Although the landslides do not exist in the very high susceptibility class of the both maps, 79% of the landslides fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the WLC map while this is 49% for the LRM map. This shows that the WLC model exhibited higher performance than the LRM model.  相似文献   

Estimating potential landslide sites of an upland sub-watershed in Western Ghat’s of Kerala (India) through frequency ratio and GIS   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

H. Vijith  G. Madhu 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(7):1397-1405

The purpose of this study is to assess the susceptibility of landslides in parts of Western Ghats, Kerala, India, using a geographical information system (GIS). Landslide inventory of the area was made by detailed field surveys and the analysis of the topographical maps. The landslide triggering factors are considered to be slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature, slope length, distance from drainage, distance from lineaments, lithology, land use and geomorphology. ArcGIS version 8.3 was used to manipulate and analyse all the collected data. Probabilistic-likelihood ratio was used to create a landslide susceptibility map for the study area. The result was validated using the Area under Curve (AUC) method and temporal data of landslide occurrences. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations. As the result, the success rate of the model was (84.46%) and the prediction rate of the model was (82.38%) shows high prediction accuracy. In the reclassified final landslide susceptibility zone map, 5.68% of the total area is classified as critical in nature. The landslide susceptibility map thus produced can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to land cover planning.  相似文献