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In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001–2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species. 相似文献
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Joint capture of multiple species by multiple fleets results in technical and economic interactions between fleets. This paper develops a bioeconomic model that incorporates interrelationships between fleets for a representative fishery in India. The study analyzes the impacts of overcapitalization on bio-economic sustainability. Results show that a continuation of the current fishing intensity would deplete most commercially important species in the near future. However, an optimal effort re-allocation between fleets would increase fishery profits substantially, although some species would remain unsustainable. The study demonstrates how the newly emerging, large bodies of fishery data can be used for management decisions in developing countries. 相似文献
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Prediction of the coupled chemo-mechanical behaviours of porous media is an important problem in many areas, i.e., expansive clays in geotechnical and petroleum engineering, engineered barriers in the underground storage of nuclear wastes, and biological tissues in biological engineering. A further complex condition occurs when the voids are not fully saturated by liquid, such that capillary effects cannot be neglected a priori and might play an important role. Focusing on the modelling of expansive clays in the geotechnical field and based on the modified mixture theory, the work presented in this paper contributes to the construction of a theoretical framework used to model such complex coupling behaviours. The Clausius–Duhem inequality, which governs the dissipation associated with mechanical work, phase transformation, mass transport and thermal transport, is rigorously derived. Based on this theoretical framework, a chemo-poro-elastic unsaturated model is developed. The model is subsequently used to simulate the salt solution infiltration process through an unsaturated expansive clayey soil that induces changes in the mechanical and hydraulic field quantities. The logical tendencies are obtained and provide a preliminary demonstration of the capabilities of the newly developed theoretical framework. 相似文献
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《Marine Policy》2015
Effective management of artisanal fisheries requires understanding fishers, their behaviors, and the drivers that underpin their choices. Behavioral drivers are critical links in understanding the interactions between social and ecological systems and can help inform effective management approaches. A Bayesian Belief Network modeling approach was used to investigate a diverse range of qualitative and quantitative social and ecological drivers of spatial location choice in a multi-species artisanal dive fishery in Costa Rica. Empirical and observer data used to populate the BBN showed the influence of economic factors, environmental conditions as well as social interactions on the decision-making process of spatial location choice. Good governance scenarios represented by Responsible Fisheries Marine Areas Management were analyzed for both hookah and free diving methods to assess the effects of responsible fishing on the fishers and the fishery. Model based-scenario analysis suggests that management interventions should consider the fisher's potential behavioral responses in the context of environmental variability, dependence on cultural assets, and food security. The results show that there is a need to understand fisher's decisions based on broad socio-ecological system understanding and consider the environmental outcomes alongside food security and the cultural significance of different marine species to fishing communities. 相似文献
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Peng Zhang Rina Zuraida Yair Rosenthal Ann Holbourn Wolfgang Kuhnt Jian Xu 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(2):505-516
Test geochemistry of planktonic foraminifera is an indispensable tool in reconstructing past ocean hydrological changes. It is essential to investigate region-specific implications of test geochemistry,although those established from other regions can be broadly applied. In this study, characteristics of6180 and Mg/Ca from tests of four planktonic foraminiferal species, Globigerinoides ruber sensu stricto(s.s.), Globigerinoides sacculifer, Pulleniatina obliquiloculata and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, from 60 coretop sediment samples retrieved from the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) region were studied. These geochemical data were compared with modern hydrographic profiles in order to assess their relations and to investigate potential implications of test geochemical parameters in reconstructing past oceanographic change in the ITF region. Calcification depths of these four species were first estimated based on comparison between measured test δ180 and predicted calcite δ18O that was calculated from modern temperature and salinity. The results indicate that G. ruber s.s. and G. sacculifer calcify within the mixedlayer at 0-50 m and 20-75 m, respectively, whereas P. obliquiloculata and N. dutertrei calcify within the thermocline at around 75 to 125 m. A combined study of excess Mg/Ca(difference between measured and predicted Mg/Ca) and salinity suggests that salinity exerts a negligible impact on test Mg/Ca of these foraminiferal species in the ITF region. Comparison of test Mg/Ca-derived temperatures with temperature profiles of the upper 200 m of the water column from the seas of the ITF region also indicate calcification depths of these species, which match well with the above estimations using test δ18O. It further indicates that G. sacculifer may be more sensitive in reflecting changes in the depth of the mixedlayer, highlighting a potential use of Mg/Ca temperature difference between G. ruber s.s. and G. sacculifer in reconstructing the depth of the mixed-layer in the ITF region. 相似文献
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The use of ITQ management in multi-species fisheries has been the subject of much debate and the complexities and difficulties of managing multi-species fisheries are well known. A major problem is that the species mix in fishery catches may not necessarily match the mix in combined TACs or in quota holdings. While a number of solutions have been proposed or implemented to improve transferability of quota and other incentives to reduce over-quota fishing and discarding, it is surprising that there has been little focus on TAC-setting itself and coordinating this across multiple species/stocks as a means of dealing with some of these issues. In this paper, data were analysed from the trawl sector of the Australian Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery to determine the relationship between primary species and companion species and the implications this has for TAC setting. The primary species is the species being considered when setting an individual species TAC. The companion species are ones that should also be considered when setting the TAC of the primary species, because a considerable proportion of the primary species catch is taken as a companion species non-target catch. The target species in each fishing operation was determined and was used to characterize recent multi-species catch data into primary and companion components. This approach provides an empirical means to examine the impact of individual species TAC decisions across all of the quota species in a fishery. 相似文献
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Ulf Lindstrm Sophie Smout Daniel Howell Bjarte Bogstad 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2009,56(21-22):2068
The Barents Sea ecosystem, one of the most productive and commercially important ecosystems in the world, has experienced major fluctuations in species abundance the past five decades. Likely causes are natural variability, climate change, overfishing and predator–prey interactions. In this study, we use an age-length structured multi-species model (Gadget, Globally applicable Area-Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox) to analyse the historic population dynamics of major fish and marine mammal species in the Barents Sea. The model was used to examine possible effects of a number of plausible biological and fisheries scenarios. The results suggest that changes in cod mortality from fishing or cod cannibalism levels have the largest effect on the ecosystem, while changes to the capelin fishery have had only minor effects. Alternate whale migration scenarios had only a moderate impact on the modelled ecosystem. Indirect effects are seen to be important, with cod fishing pressure, cod cannibalism and whale predation on cod having an indirect impact on capelin, emphasising the importance of multi-species modelling in understanding and managing ecosystems. Models such as the one presented here provide one step towards an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management. 相似文献
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