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1.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)
Abstract Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters. 相似文献
2.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle. 相似文献
3.
Résumé Un modèle hydrologique global a été calé sur des épisodes pluvieux de durée très variable (de un à plus de dix jours). Les épisodes pris en compte sont ceux qui sont encadrés par au moins un jour sec et ne provoquant pas de déversement du barrage. L'entrée de ce modèle comprend la pluie moyenne du bassin versant et l'indice des précipitations antérieures de Kohler & Linsley. Les expressions du modèle hydrologique du début et au cours de la saison humide, selon un seuil du cumul des pluies de la saison depuis le début de l'automne, sont de la forme non linéaire polynomiale du second ordre. Le modèle s'est montré performant dans l'évaluation de la lame ruisselée malgré le faible nombre de postes pluviométriques (un) pour la taille du bassin versant de 48 km2. L'absence d'autres postes pluviométriques sur le bassin versant n'a pas permis d'étudier la précision du modèle en considérant une pluie moyenne sur le bassin versant au lieu de la pluie uniquement au site du Barrage Ghézala. Citation Mathlouthi. M. & Lebdi, F. (2010) Modélisation de la relation pluie–ruissellement par durée d'épisode pluvieux dans un bassin du nord de la Tunisie. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1111–1122. 相似文献
4.
JACQUES CALLEDE JEAN LOUP GUYOT JOSYANE RONCHAIL MICHEL MOLINIER EURIDES DE OLIVEIRA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):321-333
Résumé Effectuées dans le cadre du Projet Hidrologia e geoquímica na Bacia Amazönica (HiBAm), les nouvelles mesures de débit à Obidos ont amélioré la connaissance des caractéristiques hydrologiques de l'Amazone à cette station qui contrâle les plus forts débits du monde. Une nouvelle méthode de correction détermine les débits journaliers avec une précision de ±3.0%. La reconstitution des périodes manquantes, avec les observations faites à Manaus, permet de disposer d'une chronologie de près d'un siècle. Avec cet échantillon commençant en 1902, le module interannuel de l'Amazone à Obidos est de 163 000 m3 s?1, avec un coefficient d'irrégularité extrêmement faible (K3 = 1.28). L'étiage décennal (78 000 m3 s?1) est de même grandeur que la crue centenaire du Congo à Brazzaville. La crue décennale est estimée à 260 000 m3 s?1. Le Bilan hydrologique indique un déficit d'écoulement de 1193 mm, qui peut être assimilé à l'évapotranspiration réelle. En conclusion, l'Amazone est bien le fleuve le plus puissant et le plus régulier de la planète. 相似文献
5.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract Abstract The Chronology of British Hydrological Events (CBHE) has been created as an on-line information resource (http://www.dundee.ac.uk/geography/cbhe/) in order to enhance access to and use of historical facts pertaining to British hydrological phenomena. Its scope covers floods, droughts and all other notable historical phenomena of hydrological interest. This paper sets out the technical means by which the CBHE has been created, explains the benefits to hydrologists in creating such a facility, and illustrates its utility with a number of examples. Benefits include hydrological risk assessments, historical studies of individual events and objectives in environmental education. The scope for establishing comparable national chronologies for other countries is identified, along with prospects for enhancing the utility of such systems with additional functionality such as links to on-line gazetteers and maps. 相似文献
6.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract In the first part of this study, theoretical analyses showed that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent choice. Based on these theoretical analyses, an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100–154 years of data. This verifies the theoretical results. In addition, it shows that the shape parameter of the EV2 distribution is constant for all examined geographical zones (Europe and North America), with value κ = 0.15. This simplifies the fitting and the general mathematical handling of the distribution, which become as simple as those of the Gumbel distribution. 相似文献
7.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract The global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude, location and duration of hydrological extremes. Changed hydrological extremes will have important implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood-plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is developed using a weather generating algorithm, linked with GCM outputs. These climate scenarios are then transformed into basin runoff by a semi-distributed hydrological model of the study area. The results show that future maximum river flows in the study area will be less extreme and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence, than they are at present. Low flows may become less extreme and variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence. According to the evaluated scenarios, climate change may have favourable impacts on the distribution of hydrological extremes in the study area. 相似文献
8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)
Abstract Abstract Results of studies related to the effect of snow accumulation and snowmelt on river regimes of the central Spanish Pyrenees are presented. Streamflow of the Pyrenean rivers is characterized by low and constant discharges during winter because of accumulation of snow in the basins above 1600 m a.s.l., and high and fluctuating discharges during spring due to snowmelt and rainfall. Regional discharge contrasts have been assessed in relation to the Atlantic influence and the percentage of high altitude areas in each basin. In most of the Pyrenean basins, snowmelt contributes more to the discharge than rainfall in the spring. The analysis of data shows a decrease in winter precipitation in the last 50 years causing a decrease in both winter and spring discharges and introducing changes in the distribution of streamflow throughout the year. 相似文献
9.
Andrea M. F. Valli und Maria R. Palombo 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2005,98(1):133-143
The paleodiet of Eucladoceros ctenoides (Nesti 1841), has been investigated on two sub-species from the Villafranchian fossiliferous sites of Saint-Vallier (Drôme, France), E. ctenoides vireti Heintz 1970, and Senèze (Haute-Loire, France), E. ctenoides senezensis Depéret 1910, using skull and mandible morphological features as well as the meso- and microwears methods. The validity of skull and mandible characters used to infer diet has been tested on extant cervid species: browsers (roe deer, moose and white-tailed deer) and mixed feeders at different level (Père David’s deer, fallow deer, chital, sambar, red deer and elk). The obtained results show that the Eucladoceros specimens from Saint-Vallier and Senèze shared paleodiet and ecologic niche. Cranial morphology and tooth wear are more similar to those characterising browsers than mixed feeders. Cranial morphology can be considered as a useful tool in inferring palaeodiets, in particular when tooth samples are too scanty to apply of micro- and/or mesowear analytic methods.
Manuscrit reçu le 17 septembre 2003 Révision acceptée le 16 février 16, 2005 相似文献
10.
Samir Bouaziz Younes Jedoui Éric Barrier Jacques Angelier 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2003,335(2):247-254
Pleistocene marine deposits of so-called Tyrrhenian age in southeastern Tunisia include two lithostratigraphic units of Last Interglacial (marine isotopic substage 5e). The lower unit culminates at about +3 m above the sea level; the upper unit with Strombus bubonius culminates at +5 m. Brittle deformations affected the upper unit. The analysis of fault-slip data sets reveals a post-Tyrrhenian N020°E trending compression, consistent with joint patterns. This event induced limited vertical movements, showing that at the northeastern edge of the Saharan Platform, the coastal area of the southern Tunisia remained relatively stable since at least the Last Interglacial. 相似文献