大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化     

张昭栋  刘章增  赵会蓬 《大地测量与地球动力学》2002,22(1):51-55

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化  相似文献   

GRADATION AND ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGE DEGREE OF NATURAL LANDSCAPE IN XING, AN COUNTY, GUANGXI     

李家永  李昌华 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1992,(4)

A new technique designed to help quantify the degree of damage to the landscape from one area to another shows a close relationship between population density and the degree of landscape damage. The technique establishes a scale of damage from 0 to 5 (zero = no damage; 5 = severe damage) using data from aerial photographs, land-use maps, and field data. The related formula allows one to compare the relative degree of damage across regions using a combination of an absolute index, a theoretical index, a relative index, and population density. Xing'an County is used to demonstrate the technique.  相似文献   

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams     

Roberto Mínguez  Fernando Delgado  Ignacio Escuder  Manuel G. de Membrillera 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(10):1019-1037

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

模糊划分矩阵在岩土参数概率分布中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘明  熊彩霞  马金荣 《地球科学与环境学报》2002,24(4):38-41

讨论如何在小样本条件下用已有的过程经验与试验资料确定岩土参数概率分布,用模糊划分矩阵与BAYES方法相结合,给出由小样本试验数据确定岩土参数的概率分布。  相似文献   

拉格朗日插值法在渔业资源评估上的应用     

陈文河  邵青 《广东海洋大学学报》2003,23(6):35-38

应用拉格朗日插值法拟合鱼类体长与体重之间的函数关系 ,使用计算机VB语言进行编写程序 ,与常用的线性回归法、Ricker法进行比较 ,得出体长与体重的关系式为Pn(x) =∑nk=0yklk(x)=∑nk=0(∏nj=0j≠kx-xjxk-xj)yk 。  相似文献   

FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF CONTAINER TRANSPORTATION MODES ALONG THE CHANGJIANG RIVER MAIN LINE AND ITS DELTA AREA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANGShi-yu XIAOHan-liang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):259-261

The Changjiang River (Yangtze) is one of the fastest growth areas of container transportation in Chi-na. Rail, road and water transportation have competed against each other for container transportation in the Chang-jiang River main line and its delta area. It is of significance to assess these different transportation modes scientifi-cally in order to organize container transportation efficiently in this area and make decision for integral plan and construction of transportation system in this area. This paper outlines application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to appraise different modes of typical direction of containers. Twelve assessment indexes were decided. Membership functions were formulated. Evaluation results indicated that road transportation was optimal mode in the Changjiang River delta area, however water transportation was the primary way in the Changjiang River main line.  相似文献   

疏散星团NGC6530天区的恒星自行和成员概率     

温文  赵君亮陈力 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2005,(1):79-94

利用上海天文台的照相底片资料,确定了疏散星团NGC6530天区364颗恒星的自行和成员概率,并对有关自行测定的方法、结果和精度等问题作了较为详细的介绍和讨论。使用的底片历元差为87年,全部恒星自行中误差的均方根值为1．09mas/a。  相似文献   

Mineralogy and geochemistry of the Texeo Cu–Co mine site (NW Spain): screening tools for environmental assessment     

J. Loredo  R. Álvarez  A. Ordóñez  T. Bros 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(6):1299-1310

The Cu–Co–Ni Texeo mine has been the most important source of Cu in NW Spain since Roman times and now, approximately 40,000 m³ of wastes from mine and metallurgical operations, containing average concentrations of 9,263 mg kg⁻¹ Cu, 1,100 mg kg⁻¹ As, 549 mg kg⁻¹ Co, and 840 mg kg⁻¹ Ni, remain on-site. Since the cessation of the activity, the abandoned works, facilities and waste piles have been posing a threat to the environment, derived from the release of toxic elements. In order to assess the potential environmental pollution caused by the mining operations, a sequential sampling strategy was undertaken in wastes, soil, surface and groundwater, and sediments. First, screening field tools were used to identify hotspots, before defining formal sampling strategies; so, in the areas where anomalies were detected in a first sampling stage, a second detailed sampling campaign was undertaken. Metal concentrations in the soils are highly above the local background, reaching up to 9,921 mg kg⁻¹ Cu, 1,373 mg kg⁻¹ As, 685 mg kg⁻¹ Co, and 1,040 mg kg⁻¹ Ni, among others. Copper concentrations downstream of the mine works reach values up to 1,869 μg l⁻¹ and 240 mg kg⁻¹ in surface water and stream sediments, respectively. Computer-based risk assessment for the site gives a carcinogenic risk associated with the presence of As in surface waters and soils, and a health risk for long exposures; so, trigger levels of these elements are high enough to warrant further investigation.  相似文献   

Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Marcel Hürlimann  Dieter Rickenmann  Vicente Medina  Allen Bateman 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):152

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?     

Jens-Uwe Klügel   《Earth》2008,88(1-2):1-32

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献