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1.
Reservoirs of lowland floodplain rivers with eutrophic backgrounds cause variations in the hydrological and hydraulic conditions of estuaries and low-dam reservoir areas, which can promote planktonic algae to proliferate and algal bloom outbreaks. Understanding the ecological effects of variations in hydrological and hydraulic processes in lowland rivers is important for algal bloom control. In this study, the middle and lower reaches of the Han River, China, a typical regulated lowland river with a eutrophic background, are selected. Based on the effect of hydrological and hydraulic variability on algal blooms, a hydrological management strategy for river algal bloom control is proposed. The results showed that (a) differences in river morphology and background nutrient levels cause significant differences in the critical threshold flow velocities for algal bloom outbreaks between natural river and low-dam reservoir sections; there is no uniform threshold flow velocity for algal bloom control. (b) There are significant differences in the river hydrological/hydraulic conditions between years with and without algal blooms. The average river flow, water level and velocity in years with algal blooms are significantly lower than those in years without algal blooms. (c) For different river sections where algal blooms occur and to meet the threshold flow velocities, the joint operation of cascade reservoirs and diversion projects is an effective method to prevent and control algal blooms in regulated lowland rivers. This study is expected to deepen our understanding of the ecological significance of special hydrological processes and guide algal bloom management in regulated lowland rivers.  相似文献   
2.
Flower and fruit production of the abundant, tall, long-lived, dioecious, surface-pollinating seagrass species Enhalus acoroides (L.) Royle were estimated at seven sites in the reef flats off Bolinao (NW Luzon, The Philippines) featuring different fragmentation of the seagrass meadows. Fragmentation of the seagrass meadow was quantified as cover of E. acoroides and all seagrass species present in 20×20 m plots. E. acoroides and overall seagrass cover were correlated positively. The proportion of female flowers of E. acoroides that developed a fruit increased sharply as overall seagrass cover was around 50%. Apparent sex ratio bore no relationship with overall seagrass cover. This threshold-type of relationship suggests that fragmentation of seagrass meadows can have a major effect on the reproductive output of this species. A possible mechanism underlying these results would be a non-linear increase of the efficiency of trapping the surface-dispersed pollen with increasing seagrass canopy density. This provides the first evidence based on real data that fragmentation can affect the population dynamics of seagrass species.  相似文献   
3.
How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm3 Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and tf) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.  相似文献   
4.
Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
Landsliding of the hillslope regolith is an important source of sediment to the fluvial network in the unglaciated portions of the Himalayas of Nepal. These landslides can produce abrupt increases of up to three orders of magnitude in the fluvial sediment load in less than a day. An analysis of 3 years of daily sediment load and daily rainfall data defines a relationship between monsoonal rainfall and the triggering of landslides in the Annapurna region of Nepal. Two distinct rainfall thresholds, a seasonal accumulation and a daily total, must be overcome before landslides are initiated. To explore the geomorphological controls on these thresholds, we develop a slope stability model, driven by daily rainfall data, which accounts for changes in regolith moisture. The pattern of rainfall thresholds predicted by the model is similar to the field data, including the decrease in the daily rainfall threshold as the seasonal rainfall accumulation increases. Results from the model suggest that, for a given hillslope, regolith thickness determines the seasonal rainfall necessary for failure, whereas slope angle controls the daily rainfall required for failure.  相似文献   
5.
In late-June, 1998, a series of thunderstorms dropped 16.5 cm (6.5 in.) of rain in a 72-h period over southeastern Ohio, causing extensive flooding, six deaths, and 179 million dollars in property damage. The storms also triggered more than 60 shallow landslides along a 64 km (40-mi) stretch of Interstate 77 between Buffalo and Marietta, Ohio. Almost all of the landslides were translational, occurring along the contact between colluvial soils and the underlying bedrock (shales, claystones, mudstones). Six sites were selected in the affected area for a detailed study of the shallow landslides. At each site, a record was made of the stratigraphy, slope geometry, number of landslides, landslide dimensions, hydrologic conditions, and influence of vegetation on landslide distribution. Both colluvial soils and underlying bedrock were sampled for laboratory investigations, which included determination of natural water content, grain size distribution, Atterberg limits, permeability, slake durability, and shear-strength parameters. Data from laboratory tests were used to perform sensitivity and stability analyses with respect to varying slope angles, strength parameters, and thicknesses of saturated colluvial soil. The results of the study indicate that the shallow landslides along Interstate 77 occurred when the colluvial soils reached 90% to 100% saturation, depending upon the slope angles.  相似文献   
6.
东营凹陷砂岩透镜体油气成藏机理及有利区预测   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
近几年济阳坳陷的勘探实践表明, 对岩性油藏的含油性差异、成藏机理尚认识不清, 这制约了隐蔽油气藏的进一步勘探.在东营凹陷145个砂岩透镜体油藏含油性统计分析的基础上, 结合典型透镜体油藏详细解剖和核磁共振物理模拟实验结果综合研究后发现: 砂岩透镜体圈闭形成时的构造和沉积环境、围岩生排烃条件、砂体储集条件是其成藏的主控因素.只有围岩(源岩) 进入供烃门限后, 其与砂体界面处的毛管压力差、烃浓度梯度产生的扩散力和膨胀力3者之和大于砂体中过剩的水向外渗滤遇到的阻力, 即成藏动力大于成藏阻力时, 砂岩透镜体才能成藏.当砂体沉积环境、围岩生排烃条件、砂体自身储集条件3方面均满足一定条件时, 圈闭才具备形成砂岩透镜体油藏的条件, 并且上述3方面条件越优越, 圈闭含油性就越好.用此方法对东营凹陷下第三系沙三中亚段砂岩透镜体油藏的分布进行了预测.   相似文献   
7.
Satellite rainfall products for landslide early warning prediction have been spotlighted by several researchers, in the last couple of decades. This study investigates the use of TRMM and ERA-Interim data, for the determination of rainfall thresholds and the prediction of precipitation, respectively, to be used for landslide early warning purposes at the Bogowonto catchment, Central Java, Indonesia. A landslide inventory of 218 landslides for the period of 2003–2016 was compiled, and rainfall data were retrieved for the landslide locations, as given by 6 ground stations, TRMM, and ERA-Interim data. First, rainfall data from the three different sources was compared in terms of correlation and extreme precipitation indices. Second, a procedure for the calculation of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence was followed consisting of four steps: i) the TRMM-based rainfall data was reconstructed for selected dates and locations characterized by landslide occurrence and non-occurrence; ii) the antecedent daily rainfall was calculated for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days for the selected dates and locations; iii) two-parameter daily rainfall-antecedent rainfall thresholds were calculated for the aforementioned dates; after analysis of the curves the optimum number of antecedent rainfall days was selected; and (iv) empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence were determined. The procedure was repeated for the entire landslide dataset, differentiating between forested and built-up areas, and between landslide occurrence in four temporal periods, in relation to the monsoon. The results indicated that TRMM performs well for the detection of very heavy precipitation and can be used to indicate the extreme rainfall events that trigger landslides. On the contrary, as ERA-Interim failed to detect those events, its applicability for LEWS remains limited. The 15-day antecedent rainfall was indicated to mostly affect the landslide occurrence in the area. The rainfall thresholds vary for forested and built-up areas, as well as for the beginning, middle and end of the rainy season.  相似文献   
8.
高分三号SAR影像双阈值变化检测   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
双阈值合成孔径雷达SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar)变化检测算法具有在发现变化区域的同时还能确定地表发生后向散射变化类型的优点。针对广义高斯双阈值最小误差法D-GKIT(Dual Generalized Kittler and Illingworth Thresholding)在进行阈值选取时直方图中不同类别像素灰度级重叠严重时,分割结果容易在尖峰单侧选取出双阈值而导致无法正确分割差异图的问题,本文提出一种结合归一化最大类间方差和广义高斯最小误差法GKIT(Generalized Kittler and Illingworth Thresholding)的双阈值SAR变化检测方法。首先,提出以归一化最大类间方差值作为灰度级重叠程度的判别参数,确定阈值的选取顺序及两个候选区间;然后,利用GKIT在候选区间内进行分割,获取单侧阈值及非变化类拟合函数;最后,提出利用非变化类拟合函数更新后的直方图作为另一侧阈值选取基础进行分割,得到对应分割阈值。以宁波地区高分三号(GF-3)SAR卫星影像作为试验研究数据,结果表明:本文方法能较好地解决灰度级重叠时D-GKIT无法进行正确分割的问题,具有良好的变化检测效果和更强的鲁棒性且达到了利用研究区数据验证利用GF-3号SAR卫星影像进行变化检测研究可行性的目的。  相似文献   
9.
Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.  相似文献   
10.
A data set on soil losses and controlling factors for 58 ephemeral gullies has been collected in the Belgian loess belt from March 1997 to March 1999. Of the observed ephemeral gullies, 32 developed at the end of winter or in early spring (winter gullies) and 26 ephemeral gullies developed during summer (summer gullies). The assessed data have been used to test the physically based Ephemeral Gully Erosion Model (EGEM) and to compare its performance with the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion.Analysis shows that EGEM is not capable of predicting ephemeral gully cross-sections well. Although conditions for input parameter assessment were ideal, some parameters such as channel erodibility, critical flow shear stress and local rainfall depth showed great uncertainty. Rather than revealing EGEM's inability of predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this analysis stresses the problematic nature of physically based models, since they often require input parameters that are not available or can hardly be obtained.With respect to the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this study shows that for winter gullies and summer gullies, respectively, over 80% and about 75% of the variation in ephemeral gully volume can be explained when ephemeral gully length is known. Moreover, when previously collected data for ephemeral gullies in two Mediterranean study areas and the data for summer gullies formed in the Belgian loess belt are pooled, it appears that one single length (L)–volume (V) relation exists (V=0.048 L1.29; R2=0.91). These findings imply that predicting ephemeral gully length is a valuable alternative for the prediction of ephemeral gully volume. A simple procedure to predict ephemeral gully length based on topographical thresholds is presented here. Secondly, the empirical length–volume relation can also be used to convert ephemeral gully length data extracted from aerial photos into ephemeral gully volumes.  相似文献   
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