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Abascal AJ Castanedo S Medina R Losada IJ Alvarez-Fanjul E 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(2):238-248
In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar currents for oil spill modeling and trajectory analysis of floating objects are analyzed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by means of comparison between a drifter buoy trajectory and the one simulated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. A methodology to optimize the transport model performance and to calculate the search area of the predicted positions is proposed. This method is applied to data collected during the Galicia HF Radar Experience. This experiment was carried out to explore the capabilities of this technology for operational monitoring along the Spanish coast. Two long-range HF radar stations were installed and operated between November 2005 and February 2006 on the Galician coast. In addition, a drifter buoy was released inside the coverage area of the radar. The HF radar currents, as well as numerical wind data were used to simulate the buoy trajectory using the TESEO oil spill transport model. In order to evaluate the contribution of HF radar currents to trajectory analysis, two simulation alternatives were carried out. In the first one, wind data were used to simulate the motion of the buoy. In the second alternative, surface currents from the HF radar were also taken into account. For each alternative, the model was calibrated by means of the global optimization algorithm SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) in order to obtain the probability density function of the model parameters. The buoy trajectory was computed for 24 h intervals using a Monte Carlo approach based on the results provided in the calibration process. A bivariate kernel estimator was applied to determine the 95% confidence areas. The analysis performed showed that simulated trajectories integrating HF radar currents are more accurate than those obtained considering only wind numerical data. After a 24 h period, the error in the final simulated position improves using HF radar currents. Averaging the information from all the simulated daily periods, the mean search and rescue area calculated using HF radar currents, is reduced by approximately a 62% in comparison with the search area calculated without these data. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for trajectory analysis, and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric forecast models, are of value for trajectory analysis of oil spills or floating objects. 相似文献
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Ocean prediction systems rely on an array of assumptions to optimize their data assimilation schemes. Many of these remain untested, especially at smaller scales, because sufficiently dense observations are very rare. A set of 295 drifters deployed in July 2012 in the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico provides a unique opportunity to test these systems down to scales previously unobtainable. In this study, background error covariance assumptions in the 3DVar assimilation process are perturbed to understand the effect on the solution relative to the withheld dense drifter data. Results show that the amplitude of the background error covariance is an important factor as expected, and a proposed new formulation provides added skill. In addition, the background error covariance time correlation is important to allow satellite observations to affect the results over a period longer than one daily assimilation cycle. The results show the new background error covariance formulations provide more accurate placement of frontal positions, directions of currents and velocity magnitudes. These conclusions have implications for the implementation of 3DVar systems as well as the analysis interval of 4DVar systems. 相似文献
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Ana J. Abascal Sonia Castanedo Raul Medina Maria Liste 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(11):2099-2110
A statistical oil spill response model is developed and validated by means of actual oil slick observations reported during the Prestige accident and trajectories of drifter buoys. The model is based on the analysis of a database of hypothetical oil spill scenarios simulated by means of a Lagrangian transport model. To carry out the simulations, a re-analysis database consisting of 44-year hindcast dataset of wind and waves and climatologic daily mean surface currents is used. The number of scenarios required to obtain statistically reliable results is investigated, finding that 200 scenarios provide an optimal balance between the accuracy of the results and the computational effort. The reliability of the model was analyzed by comparing the actual data with the numerical results. The agreement found between actual and numerical data shows that the developed statistical oil spill model is a valuable tool to support spill response planning. 相似文献
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Two-dimensional Lagrangian trajectories are studied near an idealized ocean front with shear and convergence plus an uncorrelated random walk. Applications include fixed-depth drifters and plankton patches with perfect depth regulation. 相似文献
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An accurate numerical prediction of the oceanic upper layer velocity is a demanding requirement for many applications at sea and is a function of several near-surface processes that need to be incorporated in a numerical model. Among them, we assess the effects of vertical resolution, different vertical mixing parameterization (the so-called Generic Length Scale –GLS– set of k–ε, k–ω, gen, and the Mellor–Yamada), and surface roughness values on turbulent kinetic energy (k) injection from breaking waves.First, we modified the GLS turbulence closure formulation in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to incorporate the surface flux of turbulent kinetic energy due to wave breaking. Then, we applied the model to idealized test cases, exploring the sensitivity to the above mentioned factors. Last, the model was applied to a realistic situation in the Adriatic Sea driven by numerical meteorological forcings and river discharges. In this case, numerical drifters were released during an intense episode of Bora winds that occurred in mid-February 2003, and their trajectories compared to the displacement of satellite-tracked drifters deployed during the ADRIA02-03 sea-truth campaign.Results indicted that the inclusion of the wave breaking process helps improve the accuracy of the numerical simulations, subject to an increase in the typical value of the surface roughness z0. Specifically, the best performance was obtained using αCH = 56,000 in the Charnok formula, the wave breaking parameterization activated, k–ε as the turbulence closure model. With these options, the relative error with respect to the average distance of the drifter was about 25% (5.5 km/day). The most sensitive factors in the model were found to be the value of αCH enhanced with respect to a standard value, followed by the adoption of wave breaking parameterization and the particular turbulence closure model selected. 相似文献
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作为重要的海洋中尺度现象之一,中尺度涡的研究受到人们的关注和重视。随着数值模式的进一步发展、卫星资料的累积、时间更长以及更多更有效的海上实测数据的取得,使得综合利用实测资料、卫星遥感资料、再分析/数值预报产品等数据源,对中尺度涡进行自动识别与三维结构分析成为中尺度涡研究的主要方向之一。在前期对卫星遥感资料中尺度涡自动检测算法进行研究的基础上,开展多源资料中尺度涡三维结构分析方法研究,以表面漂流浮标运动轨迹为中尺度涡的判定依据,综合利用高度计观测、红外遥感观测、以及再分析/数值预报产品分析中尺度涡三维结构信息,在此基础上,提出中尺度涡研究的发展方向,为全面分析中尺度涡的时空特性提供技术途径,为中尺度涡的动力机制研究奠定基础。 相似文献
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Lagrangian flow patterns in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras are examined using the tracks of 42 drifters drogued at 10 m depth and initially deployed over Georges Bank. The drifters predominantly move southwestward over the continental shelf and slope. North of Cape Hatteras, the drifters become entrained in the Gulf Stream and are carried eastward into the central Atlantic Ocean. There are two types of entrainment, abrupt and gradual. The first is characterized by a rapid change in drifter speed and an abrupt shift in drifter direction to the east. During such entrainment events, the radius of curvature of the drifter track is less than 30 km. The second type of entrainment is characterized by a gradual change in drifter direction with little change in speed. The radius of curvature of drifter tracks during such entrainment events is large (typically 50 km). The latter type occurs more frequently in summer and fall, when stratification is stronger. The drifter tracks further reveal that entrainment from the shelfbreak front/slope water system into the Gulf Stream may occur a significant distance north of Cape Hatteras, occasionally as far north as 38 °N, 200 km north of Cape Hatteras. Only two drifter tracks extend along the shelf past Diamond Shoals into the South Atlantic Bight. Four drifters are ejected from the Gulf Stream and recirculate over the slope. The observed time scale of recirculation ranges over 1–3 months. These results suggest that there are a variety of processes that determine the maximum southward penetration of Mid-Atlantic Bight shelf water before entrainment into the Gulf Stream as well as the cross-slope speed of entrainment. 相似文献
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应用漂流浮标,结合卫星高度计资料和示踪粒子法,研究了中国南海中尺度涡的输运能力。从浮标漂流轨迹和对应的流场分布可知在真实海洋中存在涡对物质的输运,陷入反气旋涡的漂流浮标跟随涡旋顺时针打转4圈,以圆弧形轨迹运动至海南岛以东。进一步通过示踪粒子法进行长期模拟得出涡内物质会以和涡相同的旋转方向旋转前进,在忽略水平方向上的混合对示踪粒子轨迹影响的情况下,在第55天,93%的质点(153个)将跟随涡旋运动,7%的质点(11个)会在中途与涡旋分离,运动中涡会不断把内部物质甩向涡的外缘,质点会从涡最边缘速度由大转小处脱离涡旋,但是大多数质点会跟随涡旋在其边缘以圆弧形轨迹向前运动,并最终稳定在涡旋的最边缘。 相似文献
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