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1.
Xiaoyi Ma Ci Song Chenghu Zhou 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(12):2401-2420
In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment. 相似文献
2.
Bimal Kanti Paul 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(2):289-304
Cyclone Sidr, a Category IV storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on November 15, 2007 killing 3,406 people.
Despite a similar magnitude, Sidr claimed far fewer lives than Cyclone Gorky, also a Category IV storm, which struck Bangladesh
in 1991 causing an estimated 140,000 fatalities. The relatively low number of deaths experienced with Sidr is widely considered
the result of Bangladesh government’s efforts to provide timely cyclone forecasting and early warnings, and successful evacuation
of coastal residents from the projected path of Cyclone Sidr. Using information collected from both primary and secondary
sources, this study identified several other reasons for the unexpectedly lower mortality associated with Cyclone Sidr relative
to Cyclone Gorky. Fewer casualties may be attributed to a number of physical characteristics of Cyclone Sidr, such as duration
of the storm and storm surge, landfall time and site, varied coastal ecology, and coastal embankment. This article recommends
improvements to the cyclone warning systems, establishment of more public cyclone shelters, and implementation of an education
campaign in coastal areas to increase the utilization of public shelters for future cyclone events. 相似文献
3.
Rivers and streams are unstable environments in which estimation of energetic costs and benefits of habitat utilization are the daunting exercise. Empirical models of food consumption may be used to estimate energetic benefits based on abiotic and biotic conditions in patches of habitat. We performed thirty daily surveys of fish stomach contents to estimate the consumption rates for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in a river. The data were used to assess whether variations of daily consumption rates existed within the river, and to develop empirical models that could predict fish consumption rates using abiotic and biotic conditions as independent variables. Daily consumption rates based on stomach content surveys in the field (range: 0.15–1.49 g dry/(100 g wet day)) varied significantly depending on habitat patch (500–1000 m2), summer period, and sampling year. Variables such as water temperature, numerical density of salmon, water depth and moon phase explained 83–93% of the variations in daily food consumption rates. Daily consumption rates tended to increase with water temperature and depth, and were also higher near a full moon. However, they tended to decrease with the numerical density of salmon. Our work suggests that empirical models based on independent variables that are relatively simple to estimate in the field may be developed to predict fish consumption rates in different habitat patches in a river. 相似文献
4.
定量研究地震滑坡物质河流卸载时间对理解地震与造山带地貌演化之间的关系有着十分重要的意义.本文以青藏高原东缘龙门山构造带内岷江流域为例,定量估算了2008年汶川大地震滑坡物质的河流卸载时间.研究结果表明,如果以位于龙门山构造带内的岷江河段现有搬运能力计算,并且岷江可以有效地搬运汶川地震滑坡物质,地震滑坡物质至少在3100 yr内被岷江卸载出龙门山.而龙门山构造带中段类似2008年汶川Ms8.0级大地震的复发周期约为3000 yr左右,暗示大地震所产生的滑坡物质量可以在大地震复发周期内基本上被侵蚀和剥蚀所平衡,并被卸载出龙门山构造带. 因此,我们推断:除了周期性大地震造成的地表抬升的累积外,龙门山地区地震及其它地表过程所产生的剥蚀物质通过河流快速卸载驱动了地壳均衡反弹和深部物质上涌,形成了青藏高原东缘的高陡地形梯度带. 相关的地球物理证据表明在青藏高原东缘可能存在由地表快速剥蚀(或侵蚀)所引发的地球深部地幔软流圈物质上涌. 相似文献
5.
Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Gordon Woo 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):87-97
One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around
a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass evacuation is high, yet the cost in possible
human casualties is potentially much greater if an evacuation is not called, or is called late. To assist officials in weighing
these considerations, probabilistic criteria for evacuation decision-making are developed within a cost-benefit analysis framework.
It is shown that such criteria may be quantitatively expressed in terms of the proportion of the evacuees owing their lives
to the evacuation call. The underlying principles are illustrated with some case studies where eruption probabilities have
been estimated. 相似文献
6.
Wildfire evacuation trigger points are prominent geographic features (e.g., ridge lines, rivers, and roads) utilized in timing evacuation warnings. When a fire crosses a feature, an evacuation warning is issued to the communities or firefighters in the path of the fire. Current methods for generating trigger buffers have limited utility because the resulting buffers are not explicitly tied to prominent geographic features, making it difficult to visually determine when a fire has breached a trigger point. This work aims to address this limitation by using reverse geocoding to identify prominent geographic trigger points that have more value to emergency managers. The method consists of three steps: 1) generate a trigger buffer using fire-spread modeling; 2) utilize online reverse-geocoding to retrieve geographic features proximal to the buffer boundary; and 3) identify the most prominent geographic features using viewshed analysis and compute the warning time each would offer given predicted fire spread rates to proximal communities. A case study of Julian, California is presented to identify prominent geographic trigger points that may have value to emergency managers in improving the timing of wildfire evacuation warnings in this region. 相似文献
7.
在 １９９２～１９９３年度南极夏季期间，用肠道荧光法现场测定大磷虾（Ｅｕ－ ｐｈａｕｓｉａ ｓｕｐｅｒｂａ Ｄａｎａ）的肠道排空率和肠道内含物色素水平，并据此计算自然状况下 大磷虾的摄食率。大磷虾的肠道排空率为０．４３／ｈ。次成体（平均体重为１６８．８ｍｇ干 重）和成体（平均体重为 ２７４．３ｍｇ干重）的摄食率分别为 １８０．６±１９．２和 ４６４．４± ２８．３ｎｇ叶绿素ａ／ｈ。自然状况下大磷虾的摄食率与现场测定的 １００ｍ以上水层平均 叶绿素ａ浓度的相关性不大。 相似文献
8.
An evacuation trigger is a point on the landscape that, once crossed by a wildfire, triggers an evacuation for a community.
The Wildland-Urban Interface Evacuation (WUIVAC) model can be used to create evacuation trigger buffers around a community
using fuels, weather, and topographic inputs. A strategic, community-scale application of WUIVAC for the town of Julian, California
was investigated. Eight years of wind measurements were used to determine the worst-case (strongest) winds in 16 directions.
Surface fire rate of spread was used to calculate evacuation trigger buffers for the communities of Julian and nearby Whispering
Pines, and for three potential evacuation routes. Multiple trigger buffers were combined to create fire planning areas, and
trigger buffers that predict the closure of all evacuation routes were explored. WUIVAC trigger buffers offer several potential
benefits for strategic evacuation planning, including determination of when to evacuate and locating potential evacuation
routes. 相似文献
9.
Debris flow disaster prevention and mitigation of non-structural strategies in Taiwan 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Taiwan has disadvantageous conditions for sediment-related disasters such as debris flows. The construction of engineering structures is an effective strategy for reducing debris flow disasters. However, it is impossible to construct engineering structures in all debris flow areas in a short period. Therefore, the government aims to gradually develop non-structural preventive strategies, including evacuation planning, debris flow disaster emergency action system, disaster resistant community program, recruitment of debris flow professional volunteers, debris flow warning systems, and land management strategies, to mitigate disasters and secure the safety of residents. This review describes the processes and effects of recent debris flow non-structural preventive strategies in Taiwan. The average number of casualties prior to the year 2000 was far higher than the corresponding number after 2000 because debris flow evacuation drills have been promoted since 2000 and the debris flow disaster emergency action system has been progressively improved since 2002. Furthermore, the changes in risks caused by debris flow disasters before and after the implementation of non-structural preventive strategies were used to explain the effectiveness of these strategies at the community level. The results showed that software-based non-structural preventive strategies can effectively reduce the casualties caused by debris flows at both the national and community levels. 相似文献
10.
Since the start of the pandemic, some U.S. communities have faced record storms, fires, and floods. Communities have confronted the increased challenge of curbing the spread of COVID-19 amid evacuation orders and short-term displacement that result from hazards. This raises the question of whether disasters, evacuations, and displacements have resulted in above-average infection rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the relationship between disaster intensity, sheltering-in-place, evacuation-related mobility, and contagion following Hurricane Zeta in Southeastern Louisiana and The Wildfires in Napa and Sonoma Counties, California, known as the Glass Fire. We draw on data from the county subdivision level and mapped and aggregated tallies of Facebook user movement from the Facebook Data for Good program’s GeoInsights Portal. We test the effects of disasters, evacuation, and shelter-in-place behaviors on COVID-19 spread using panel data models, matched panel models, and synthetic control experiments. Our findings suggest associations between disaster intensity and higher rates of COVID-19 cases. We also find that while sheltering-in-place led to decreases in the spread of COVID-19, evacuation-related mobility did not result in our hypothesized surge of cases immediately after the disasters. The findings from this study aim to inform policymakers and scholars about how to better respond to disasters during multi-crisis events, such as offering hotel accommodations to evacuees instead of mass shelters and updating intake and accommodation procedures at shelters, such as administration temperature screenings, offering hand sanitizing stations, and providing isolated areas for ill evacuees. 相似文献