Evidence of climatic warming in the southern Urals region derived from borehole temperatures and meteorological data     

Inessa V. Golovanova  Robert N. Harris  Galina V. Selezniova  Petr Stulc 《Global and Planetary Change》2001,29(3-4)

Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated.  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of surface hydrography and circulation variations in northern South China Sea     

吴玲娟  崔茂常 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2005,23(4):383-392

1 INTRODUCTIONThe South China Sea (SCS) is a semi-enclosedmarginal sea in western North Pacific Ocean withvery complex topography and is the important pas-sage connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Ithas great impact to the global climate and a greatinterest of many oceanography researchers. Twodominant surface hydrographic and circulation fea-tures in the northern SCS are a strong fresh waterexpansion and a warm and high-salinity seawaterintrusion such as the SCS Diluted Water…  相似文献   

Simulation of double cold cores of the 35°N section in the Yellow Sea with a wave-tide-circulation coupled model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xia Changshui  Qiao Fangli  Zhang Mengning  Yang Yongzeng  Yuan Yeli 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2004,22(3):292-298

Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled numerical model, the temperature structure along 35°N in the Yellow Sea was simulated and compared with the observations. One of the notable features of the temperature structure along 35°N section is the double cold cores phenomena during spring and summer. The double cold cores refer to the two cold water centers located near 122°E and 125°E from the depth of 30m to bottom. The formation, maintenance and disappearance of the double cold cores are discussed. At least two reasons make the temperature in the center (near 123°E) of the section higher than that near the west and east shores in winter. One reason is that the water there is deeper than the west and east sides so its heat content is higher. The other is invasion of the warm water brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) during winter. This temperature pattern of the lower layer (from 30m to bottom) is maintained through spring and summer when the upper layer (0 to 30m) is heated and strong thermocline is formed. Large zonal span of the 35°N section (about 600 km) makes the cold cores have more opportunity to survive. The double cold cores phenomena disappears in early autumn when the west cold core vanishes first with the dropping of the thermocline position. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).  相似文献   

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example     

Qin Chengzhi 《中国地震研究》2004,18(2):178-187

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.  相似文献   

今后几年的月球探测和月球科学     

平劲松  花田英夫  日置幸介  坪川恒也  菅野贵之  河野裕介  松本晃治  河野宣之  岩田隆浩 《天文研究与技术》2003,(1):119-125

近年来月球探测已经进入了一个全新的时代。特别是 1 990年以来 ,多个月球探测计划已经被成功实现 ,而且另外还有多个探测计划也在准备当中 ,并将在未来的几年内发射升空。在这种背景之下 ,中国的航天机构和有关的科学家也开始积极酝酿和开发自己的月球探测计划。这些月球探测计划将利用卫星上搭载的各种仪器探测和测量月球的地质和地理特性、化学成分和矿物组成、月球物理学特征以及包含地球大气在内的地月空间环境和行星际空间环境 ;进一步研究月球的起源和演化 ,探明月面环境 ,研究太阳等离子体物理 ,提供月面天文台和月面长期科研基地的候选地址 ,调查月球上的可利用资源 ,为将来开发月球提供充实的背景资料。参与新一轮的月球探测同样也为中国天文学研究带来了新的机会。  相似文献   

公共行政监督的"经济解释"及其启示     

牛福增 《广东海洋大学学报》2003,23(2):57-64

行政腐败和行政作弊现象使政府行政的合法性受到人们的置疑 ,深入推行的廉政建设责任制反映了政府在这一问题上理论认识的巨大进步与从严治政的重大决心。公共选择理论认为 ,官僚的经济人属性不会因其成为政府官僚而改变 ,其目标不是公共利益也不是机构效率 ,而是个人效用 ;西方国家的“三权分立”学说及其实践对于公共行政的监督具有重大的历史进步意义 ,但其精致架构的私有制基础决定了这种民主可能只具有形式主义的性质 ,它只是一种富人之间的游戏规则与表现形式。毛泽东的“双平行制约”理论与方法是中国共产党人对公共行政理论与实践的巨大贡献 ,效果奇特却存在着一系列致命的弊端。对上述理论与实践的比较研究 ,为我国当前广泛展开的廉政建设提出了一些深层次的启发性思考  相似文献   

The Dependence of Water Exchanges between the Kuroshio Water and Its Surroundings on the Characteristics of the Kuroshio‘s Meanders     

姜华  吴德星  万修全 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2003,21(4):335-344

Observation of fluid parcel pathways in the Kuroshio Stream revealed a striking crossstream pattern associated with the Kuroshio‘‘ s meanders. In order to understand the observed pattern, a two-dimensional kinematic model of a meandering jet was developed which could be used to examine the relationship between streamfunction patterns and fluid parcel trajectories. The experiments designed to investigate the dependence of the water exchanges between the Kuroshio water and its surroundings on the characteristics of the Kuroshio‘‘s meanders involved the downstream speed,phase speed and the amplitude of other propagating waves. The results suggested that fluid parcels could cross the meandering jet to and fro; and that the water exchanges between the Kuroshio and its surroundings increased with a) increasing meander amplitude, b) decreasing downstream speed, and c) increasing wave phase speed. The results also showed that when the meandering jet was disturbed by other propagating waves, more effective water exchanges could be induced.  相似文献   

GENIE – The Darwin demonstrator     

M. Fridlund  Ph. Gondoin 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,286(1-2):93-98

Darwin is a cornerstone mission of the Horizons 2000+ program of the European Space Agency. It has the express purpose of carrying out the first direct search for terrestrial exoplanets, and to achieve unprecedented spatial resolution in the infrared wavelength region. The detection and study of terrestrial exoplanets promises to usher in a new era in science and will affect a broad spectrum of disciplines. Further, the time line for implementation of such an instrument is now likely to be of the close order of 10 years, leading to possible answers to one of mankind's most fundamental questions in the second decade of the 21st century. It has been found that in order to realize am interferometer in space in the next 10–15 years, it is necessary to prepare the way through a number of intermediary steps – both on the ground and in space. In this context, we here describe GENIE – a ground based nulling interferometry experiment to be implemented at the VLTI in a partnership between ESA and ESO. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Implications of low-pass filtering on power spectra and autocorrelation functions of turbulent velocity signals     

《Mathematical Geology》1997,29(5):653-668

Filtering either through the electronics of an instrument or through digital procedure is performed routinely on geophysical data. When velocity fluctuations are measured in turbulent flows using electromagnetic current meters (ECMs), a builtin lowpass Butterworth filter of order n usually attenuates fluctuations at high frequencies. However, the effects of this filter may not be acknowledged in turbulence studies, thus impeding comparisons between data collected with different ECMs. This paper explores the implications of the filters on the characteristics of velocity signals, mainly on variance, power spectra, and correlation analyses. Variance losses resulting from filtering can be important but will vary with the order n of the Butterworth filter, decreasing as n increases. Knowing the filter response, it is possible to reconstruct the original signal spectrum to evaluate the effect of filtering on variance and to allow comparisons between data collected with different instruments. The autocorrelation function also is affected by filtering which increases the value of the coefficients in the first lags, resulting in an overestimation of the integral length scale of coherent structures. These important effects add to those related to size and shape differences in ECM sensors and must be taken into account in comparative studies.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary contourites and glaciomarine sedimentation in the Fram Strait   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

JOHN A. HOWE  TRACY M. SHIMMIELD  REX HARLAND† 《Sedimentology》2008,55(1):179-200

Two sites in the eastern Fram Strait, the Vestnesa Ridge and the Yermak Plateau, have been surveyed and sampled providing a depositional record over the last glacial‐interglacial cycle. The Fram Strait is the only deep‐water connection from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic and contains a marine sediment record of both high latitude thermohaline flow and ice sheet interaction. On the Vestnesa Ridge, the western Svalbard margin, a sediment drift was identified in 1226 m of water. Gravity and multicores from the crest of the drift recovered turbidites and contourites. ¹⁴C dating indicates an age range of 8287 to 26 900 years BP (Early Holocene to Late Weichselian). The Yermak Plateau is characterized by slope sediments in 961 m of water. Gravity and multicores recovered contourites and hemipelagites. ¹⁴C ages were between 8615 and 46 437 years BP (Early Holocene to mid‐Weichselian). Downcore dinoflagellate cyst analyses from both sites provide a record of changing surface water conditions since the mid‐Weichselian, suggesting variable sea ice extent, productivity and polynyas present even during the Last Glacial Maximum. Four layers of ice‐rafted debris were also identified and correlated within the cores. These events occurred ca at 9, 24 to 25, 26 to 27 and 43 ka, asynchronous with Heinrich layers in the wider north‐east Atlantic and here interpreted as reflecting instability in the Svalbard/Barents Ice sheet and the northward advection of warm Atlantic water during the Late Weichselian. The activity of the ancestral West Spitsbergen Current is interpreted using mean sortable silt records from the cores. On the Vestnesa Ridge drift the modern mass accumulation rate, calculated using excess ²¹⁰Pb, is 0·076 g cm^?2 year^?1. On the Yermak Plateau slope the modern mass accumulation rate is 0·053 g cm^?2 year^?1.  相似文献