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The fifth Pennsylvania State University and National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (MM5) is utilized to study the precipitation and wind speed during Typhoon Chanchu (2006).Five model experiments with different physical parameterizations and sea surface temperature (SST) distributions are carried out.It is found that the control experiment configured with the Blakadar boundary scheme,Resiner2 moisture,the Betts-Miller cumulus scheme and daily updated SST has the most reasonable precipitation.The MRF boundary scheme tends to simulate a dryer boundary layer and stronger vertical mixing,which can greatly reduce the intensity of tropical cyclone (TC),resulting in a smaller maximum wind speed but larger range of medium wind speed (25-30 m/s).Constant SST through the TC cycle provides more energy from ocean surface,which could cause a significant increase in TC’s intensity,thus resulting in the largest overestimation on rainfall and maximum wind speed.Longitudinally-uniform SST distribution before the rapid intensification could reduce TC’s intensity and heat fluxes,which can partially compensate for the overestimation of precipitation in the control experiment. 相似文献
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ZHONG Ke WANG Yegui MA Huanyu DONG Peiming CAI Qif KANG Jianwei 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(3):307-317
In ensemble forecast,by summing up ensemble members,filtering the uncertainty,and retaining the common component,the ensemble mean with a better result can be achieved.However,the filtering works only when the initial perturbation develops nonlinearly.If the initial perturbation propagates in a linear space,the positive and negative members will counteract,leading to little difference between ensemble mean and control forecast and finally insignificant ensemble result.In 1 2-day ensemble forecast,based on singular vector (SV) calculations,to avoid this insignificance,the counteracting members originated from the same SV are advised not to put into the ensemble system together;the only candidate should be the one with the better forecast.Based on the ingredient analysis of initial perturbation development,a method to select ensemble members is presented in this paper,which can fulfill the above requirement.The regional model MM5V1 of NCAR/PSU (National Center for Atmosphere Research/Pennsylvania State University) and its corresponding tangent adjoint model are used.The ensemble spread and forecast errors are calculated with dry energy norm.Two mesoscale lows on the Meiyu front along the Yangtze River are examined.According to the analysis of the perturbation ingredient,among couples of counteracting members from different SVs,those members performing better always have smaller or greater spread compared with other members.Following this thinking,an optimized ensemble and an inferior ensemble are identified.The ensemble mean of the optimized ensemble is more accurate than that of the inferior ensemble,and the former also performs better than the traditional ensemble with positive and negative members simultaneously.As for growth of the initial perturbation,those initial perturbations originated from the summed SVs grow more quickly than those from the single SV,and they enlarge the range of spread of the ensemble effectively,thus leading to better performance of ensemble members. 相似文献
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