不同大尺度强迫条件下考虑初始场与侧边界条件不确定性的对流尺度集合预报试验   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

庄潇然  闵锦忠  蔡沅辰  朱浩楠 《气象学报》2016,74(2):244-258

研究了不同大尺度强迫条件下的暴雨个例中,考虑不同尺度特征的初始扰动与侧边界扰动相互作用构造对流尺度集合预报的可行性,为进一步构建“自适应”于不同强对流天气的对流尺度集合预报系统提供依据。结果表明,在大尺度强迫显著的个例1中,以大尺度扰动信息为主的动力降尺度的增长趋势较集合转换卡尔曼滤波(ETKF)更为显著,且总扰动能量在预报中后期超过集合转换卡尔曼滤波,而在大尺度强迫较弱的个例2中,集合转换卡尔曼滤波扰动能量始终高于动力降尺度。此外,当大尺度强迫显著时,初始扰动与侧边界扰动相匹配会产生相互促进的作用,而不匹配时初始扰动会在预报中后期抑制侧边界扰动的发展,当大尺度强迫较弱时,即使是互相间不匹配的初始扰动与侧边界扰动也能在大部分预报时段起到相互促进的作用,说明初始扰动与侧边界扰动的相互作用机制不仅与天气形势相关,也与二者是否匹配挂钩,另外,扰动的发展特征同样依赖于天气形势;从集合离散度的角度来看,当大尺度强迫明显时,侧边界扰动的作用会在更短的时间内取代初始扰动,从而对离散度起到主导地位;两种初始扰动方法相比,集合转换卡尔曼滤波在多数情况下对总离散度的贡献均大于动力降尺度;从降水量预报及概率预报情况来看,大尺度强迫明显的个例可预报性更高,且各集合成员间的差异较小,大尺度强迫较弱的个例则相反,且当两种初始扰动方案与侧边界扰动相结合时,较仅侧边界扰动均有一定提高。   相似文献   

Rock associations and their spatial-Temporal variations of the early mesozoic igneous rocks in the NE Asia: Constraints on the initial subduction timing of the paleo-pacific plate北大核心CSCD     

Tang J.Xu W.-L.Wang F. 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2016,(6):1181-1194

This paper summarizes rook associations and spatial-Temporal variations of the early Mesozoic igneous rocks in the NE Asia, with the aim of revealing the initial subduction timing of the Paleo-Pacific Plate beneath the Eurasia, and the relationships between the early Mesozoic magmatisms and the Paleo-Asian tectonic system, Mongol-Okhotsk tectonic system, and amalgamation of the Yangtze and North China cratons. Dating results indicate that the early Mesozoic magmatisms in the NE Asia can be subdivided into three stages, i.e., Early-Middle Triassic, Late Triassic, and Early Jurassic. The early Mesozoic calc-Alkaline magmatisms within the Erguna Massif reveal southward subduction of the Mongol-Okhotsk oceanic plate. The Triassic alkaline and bimodal magmatisms within the northern margin of the North China Craton indicate an extensional environment related to the final closure of the Paleo-Asian Ocean. The Late Triassic A-Type rhyo- lites and bimodal magmatisms, together with the Late Triassic stable sedimentary rocks, in eastern Heilongjiang-Jilin provinces, reveal an extensional environment and passive continental margin setting, whereas the Early Jurassic calc-Alkaline magmatisms and its compositional variations, together with the coeval accretionary complex, reveal the onset of the Paleo- Pacific plate beneath the Euirasian continent.  相似文献   

Effects of initial step height on the headcut erosion of bank gullies: a case study using a 3D photo-reconstruction method in the dry-hot valley region of southwest China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Baojun Zhang  Zhengan Su  Dan Yang  Yifan Dong  Liang Xiao 《自然地理学》2016,37(6):409-429

Abstract

Headcut erosion has been recognized as one of the main processes involved in gully development in the dry-hot valley region of southwest China. To examine the effect of initial step height on headcut erosion processes, three headcuts were constructed ranging in height from 0.75 to 1.25 m on an active bank gully head, and a series of scouring experiments were conducted under a flow discharge of 120 L min^?1. The morphological evolutions of the plunge pools and soil loss volume were estimated by three-dimensional photo-reconstruction methods (3D-PR). As the step height increased, the experimental results showed that: (1) the transformed potential energy and shear stress would increase by approximately 4.89 J s^?1 and 26.4 Pa on average when the step height increased 0.25 m; (2) the mean depth and width of the plunge pool exhibited obvious growth, and the morphology of the cross-section developed from approximately V-shaped to U-shaped; and (3) soil loss volume increased logarithmically, with total soil loss volumes of 0.076, 0.105 and 0.116 m³, respectively. Although the significant effects of the initial step height on headcut erosion were verified, further quantitative studies are required to quantify the mechanism of headcut erosion, especially for plunge pool erosion.  相似文献   

Zircon U–Pb–Hf isotopes and geochemistry analyses of the Huyu igneous rocks in northwestern Beijing,China: possible new evidence for the initial destruction of the North China Craton     

Zejia Ji  Baofu Han  Haifei Yu  Yan Chen 《International Geology Review》2018,60(2):196-216

The timing and extent of cratonic destruction are crucial to understanding the crustal evolution of the North China Craton (NCC). Zircon U–Pb–Hf isotope data and the whole-rock major and trace element characteristics of the Huyu igneous rocks in northwestern Beijing, China, provide possible new evidence for the initial destruction of the NCC. The igneous rocks occur as several sills and dikes, including lamprophyre, monzonite porphyry, and aplite. The lamprophyres have high Mg^# and K₂O contents. The monzonite porphyries have high Mg^#, high K₂O contents, and negative ε_Hf(t) values with zircon U–Pb ages of 225.5–227.7 Ma. These two types of rocks are both enriched in large ion lithosphere elements (LILEs) and light rare earth elements (LREEs) but are depleted in high field strength elements (HFSEs) and high rare earth elements (HREEs) and have almost no Eu anomalies and relatively high total rare earth element (ΣREE) contents. In contrast, the aplites exhibit high silica and K₂O contents, low MgO contents, and more negative ε_Hf(t) values with a zircon U–Pb age of 206.2 Ma. The aplites are also enriched in LILEs and LREEs but are depleted in HFSEs and HREEs, with strongly negative Eu, Ti, P, La, Ce, and Sr anomalies and relatively low ΣREE contents. These results indicate that the lamprophyres and monzonite porphyries represent a continuous cogenetic magma evolution series after melt derived from an enriched metasomatized lithospheric mantle experienced crust assimilation and fractional crystallization. The aplites were produced by the fractional crystallization of low-Mg parental magma derived from melting of the ancient Archaean crust. The occurrence of the Huyu intrusive rocks with many other plutons of similar ages on the northern margin of the NCC suggests that the northern NCC entered an intraplate extensional tectonic environment in the Late Triassic.  相似文献   

数值天气预报和气候预测的集合预报方法:思考与展望     

段晚锁  汪叶  霍振华  周菲凡 《气候与环境研究》2019,24(3):396-406

从初始误差、模式误差以及两者综合影响的角度,综述了天气、气候集合预报方法的研究进展,指出了传统方法的优势,同时也评论了这些方法的局限性,提出了对未来先进集合预报方法的一些思考,以及需要解决的挑战性问题和可能的应用。  相似文献   

The Mathematic Models of the Kalman Filtering for Across-Fault Measurement     

You Lilan  Liu Dajie  Huang Jia'na  Liu Xue  Zhou KechangInstitute of Crustat Dynamics  SSB  Beijing  China Wuhan Technical University of Surveying  Mapping  Wuhan  China National Center for Seismic Data  Inforraanon  SSB  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1994,(3)

This paper makes a probe into the application of the Kalman filtering method to the data processing of across-fault measurements.On the basis of statistical regression,the mathematic and stochastic models of filtration are established by combining the regression method with Kalman filtering.In the filtering computation,not only the randomness of fault movements but also the time-dependent variation of environmental effects have been taken into consideration.By use of the adaptive filtering method,an estimation of the dynamic noise variance matrix is obtained through iteration.Models for one measuring line(leveling line or baseline),two measuring lines(both leveling lines or both baselines)and four measuring lines(two leveling lines and two baselines)are derived and established systematically.By means of these models,the data of across-fault measurements can be processed dynamically in real-time to provide the filtered values of height difference between benchmarks or baseline length at different time in  相似文献   

快速序贯算法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周世健  夏尚坤 《测绘学院学报》1994,(1)

本文讨论了序贯算法的基本原理，与ｋａｌｍａｎ滤波的关系，和序贯算法的渐近性态，得到无先验信息的序贯算法不受初值的影响。实例分析表明，此序贯算法可适于方程系数阵的求逆、求解和病态方程的快速解算。  相似文献   

龙羊峡水库库岸高边坡地下水位预测     

王晓鸿  许彦卿  刘汉超  张倬元 《地质灾害与环境保护》1995,(4)

龙羊峡水库近坝库岸高边坡稳定性是影响该工程安全和充分发挥电站经济效益的关键问题，而高边坡中地下水位的预测是稳定性评价中一项重要内容。本文以高边坡实际地质结构为背景，建立了地下水剖面二维流数学模型，运用初流量法求其均值解。结果同观测资料吻合较好，并对未来１０年地下水位动态作了预测。  相似文献   

Influence of initial density of cohesionless soil on evolution of passive earth pressure     

J. Tejchman  E. Bauer  S. F. Tantono 《Acta Geotechnica》2007,2(1):53-63

This paper focuses on the influence of the initial void ratio on the evolution of the passive earth pressure and the formation of shear zones in a dry sand body behind a retaining wall. For the numerical simulation a rigid and very rough retaining wall undergoing a horizontal translation against the backfill is considered. The essential mechanical properties of cohesionless granular soil are described with a micro-polar hypoplastic model which takes into account stresses and couple stresses, pressure dependent limit void ratios and the mean grain size as a characteristic length. Numerical investigations are carried out with an initially medium dense and initially loose sand using a homogeneous and random distribution of the initial void ratio. The geometry of calculated shear zones is discussed and compared with a corresponding laboratory model test.  相似文献   

顾及起始数据误差的双点测边交会的精度计算     

严伯铎 《测绘工程》2001,10(4):45-47

推导了起始数据误差对双点测边交会定点精度影响的估算式，并依此给出顾及起始数据误差的点位精度计算公式。  相似文献