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Avalanche activities in the Indian Himalaya cause the majority of fatalities and responsible for heavy damage to the property. Avalanche susceptibility maps assist decision-makers and planners to execute suitable measures to reduce the avalanche risk. In the present study, a probabilistic data-driven geospatial fuzzy–frequency ratio (fuzzy–FR) model is proposed and developed for avalanche susceptibility mapping, especially for the large undocumented region. The fuzzy–FR model for avalanche susceptibility mapping is initially developed and applied for Lahaul-Spiti region. The fuzzy–FR model utilized the six avalanche occurrence factors (i.e. slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, terrain roughness and vegetation cover) and one referent avalanche inventory map to generate the avalanche susceptibility map. Amongst 292 documented avalanche locations from the avalanche inventory map, 233 (80%) were used for training the model and remaining 59 (20%) were used for validation of the map. The avalanche susceptibility map is validated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) technique. For validation of the results using ROC-AUC technique, the success rate and prediction rate were calculated. The values of success rate and prediction rate were 94.07% and 91.76%, respectively. The validation of results using ROC-AUC indicated the fuzzy–FR model is appropriate for avalanche susceptibility mapping.  相似文献   
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Land use and land cover changes that occurred during the period from 1991 to 2001 in the Jahlma watershed of the Lahaul valley, a cold desert region of the northwestern Himalaya, were evaluated using land use data and visual interpretation of IRS Satellite imageries. The results revealed that out of the six major land use forms within the watershed, land areas under agriculture, kitchen garden and settlement land were found increased, whereas a declining trend was recorded in areas under grassland, barren land and Salix plantation. The cultivated land within the watershed increased from 54.87 % (total of agriculture land, kitchen garden, grassland, barren land, Salix plantation and residential area) in 1991 to 56.89 % in 2OOl, corresponding to an expansion of 4.41 ha. On the other hand, the areas of grassland decreased from 31.41% in 1991 to 29.81% in 2001. Such a dramatic land use and land cover changes taking place within the 33 km^2 watershed area in a single decade deafly indicates the prevailing danger of land degradation and environmental deterioration in the region.  相似文献   
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